American League

Michael Cuddyer Really This Good? Slugging Percentage Plus June Update

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The simplest form of baseball statistics is batting average.  It’s been around since they invented the game. But since Bill James and the sabermetrics nerds of the world have really let their voice be heard, new and more complex stats have been invented and slowly integrated into the contemporary baseball rhetoric. Still, I’m ready for the more complex to be more readily available.  My campaign continues with a stat that I thought up last June in an attempt to quantify what exactly speedy guys like Dee Gordon, Juan Pierre and Jose Reyes bring to a game that is lost in our obsession with how far a guy can hit the baseball.  Admittedly, chicks dig the long ball, but not everyone can be Miguel Cabrera or Chris Davis (note that last June this sentence had references to Adam Dunn and Josh Hamilton. Miggy and Crush Davis are the new home run champs).

The impetus for Slugging Percentage Plus was that a single or walk immediately followed by a steal of second base is basically like hitting a double.  When there’s real speed guys out there (think Rickey Henderson or Mikey Perrone or Billy Hamilton), a walk turns into a triple rather quickly.  With that, shouldn’t we quantify slugging percentage as (Total Bases + SB)  per Plate Appearance?  A year of tinkering with it, and the SPP equation incorporates caught stealings and intentional walks, but the basic thought remains the same.

SPP = ((TB + SB + Walks + HBP+IBB-CS) / (PA))

Over the past year, I’ve learned that SPP has a way of providing some insight into who is compiling surprisingly good offensive seasons.  It’s meant as a mode of quantifying how good you are on offense, baserunning included.  Now, I’ve tinkered with the idea of standardizing SPP so that the average fan knows exactly what it means, but I’ve found that SPP can be conceptualized on the Slugging Percentage scale with most scoring somewhere near 100 points better in SPP than traditional Slugging Percentage.

Here’s your updated June 2013 SPP Standings:

 

1 Chris Davis 0.778
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.756
3 David Ortiz 0.700
4 Carlos Gonzalez 0.682
5 Michael Cuddyer 0.648
6 Mike Trout 0.642
7 Carlos Gomez 0.638
8 Joey Votto 0.631
9 Paul Goldschmidt 0.630
10 Jason Kipnis 0.629
11 David Wright 0.622
12 Buster Posey 0.606
13 Domonic Brown 0.606
14 Evan Longoria 0.598
15 Robinson Cano 0.596
16 Jean Segura 0.596
17 Edwin Encarnacion 0.594
18 Jose Bautista 0.584
19 Shin-Soo Choo 0.581
20 Nelson Cruz 0.579
21 Dexter Fowler 0.576
22 Carlos Beltran 0.574
23 Josh Donaldson 0.572
24 Pedro Alvarez 0.565
25 Andrew McCutchen 0.563
26 Hunter Pence 0.562
27 Coco Crisp 0.561
28 Jay Bruce 0.559
29 Joe Mauer 0.558
30 Carlos Santana 0.551
31 Justin Upton 0.551
32 Prince Fielder 0.549
33 Ian Desmond 0.546
34 Everth Cabrera 0.546
35 Starling Marte 0.544
36 Ryan Zimmerman 0.543
37 Anthony Rizzo 0.543
38 Matt Joyce 0.542
39 Adam Dunn 0.542
40 Jacoby Ellsbury 0.541
41 Freddie Freeman 0.539
42 Dustin Pedroia 0.538
43 Nate McLouth 0.537
44 Matt Carpenter 0.537
45 Yadier Molina 0.537
46 James Loney 0.531
47 Brandon Moss 0.531
48 Adam LaRoche 0.530
49 Howie Kendrick 0.530
50 Adam Jones 0.529
51 Jason Castro 0.528
52 Mark Trumbo 0.527
53 Lucas Duda 0.524
54 Adrian Beltre 0.520
55 Chris Carter 0.520
56 Alex Rios 0.520
57 Wilin Rosario 0.519
58 Marlon Byrd 0.514
59 Adrian Gonzalez 0.514
60 Jhonny Peralta 0.513
61 Allen Craig 0.511
62 Josh Willingham 0.510
63 Jedd Gyorko 0.510
64 Billy Butler 0.509
65 Manny Machado 0.509
66 Ryan Howard 0.508
67 Matt Holliday 0.508
68 Daniel Nava 0.506
69 Mike Napoli 0.506
70 Brett Gardner 0.506
71 Brandon Belt 0.505
72 Dan Uggla 0.505
73 Colby Rasmus 0.502
76 Albert Pujols 0.500
74 Seth Smith 0.500
75 Russell Martin 0.500
77 Mark Reynolds 0.498
78 Yoenis Cespedes 0.497
79 Kelly Johnson 0.496
80 Jed Lowrie 0.496
81 Kyle Seager 0.491
82 Justin Ruggiano 0.490
83 Gerardo Parra 0.488
84 Nick Swisher 0.486
85 Lance Berkman 0.485
86 Kendrys Morales 0.485
87 J.J. Hardy 0.482
88 Desmond Jennings 0.482
89 Ben Zobrist 0.481
90 Stephen Drew 0.481
91 Todd Frazier 0.481
92 Alejandro De Aza 0.476
93 Alex Gordon 0.475
94 Jonathan Lucroy 0.475
95 Neil Walker 0.474
96 Carlos Pena 0.473
97 Alfonso Soriano 0.471
98 Michael Young 0.469
99 Eric Hosmer 0.468
100 Rickie Weeks 0.467
101 Chris Denorfia 0.465
102 Brandon Phillips 0.464
103 Lyle Overbay 0.463
104 Matt Wieters 0.462
105 A.J. Pollock 0.460
106 Garrett Jones 0.459
107 Omar Infante 0.458
108 Jose Altuve 0.455
109 Brandon Crawford 0.455
110 Andre Ethier 0.455
111 Marco Scutaro 0.454
112 Ryan Doumit 0.454
113 Justin Morneau 0.450
114 Drew Stubbs 0.450
115 Daniel Murphy 0.449
116 Chase Headley 0.448
117 Gregor Blanco 0.445
118 Josh Hamilton 0.444
119 Lorenzo Cain 0.443
120 Torii Hunter 0.443
121 J.P. Arencibia 0.443
122 Norichika Aoki 0.441
123 Nick Markakis 0.441
124 Salvador Perez 0.438
125 Ichiro Suzuki 0.437
126 John Buck 0.436
127 Paul Konerko 0.435
128 Michael Brantley 0.435
129 Pablo Sandoval 0.434
130 Jimmy Rollins 0.425
131 Brian Dozier 0.425
132 Andy Dirks 0.423
133 Denard Span 0.419
134 Darwin Barney 0.419
135 Matt Dominguez 0.418
136 Jon Jay 0.415
137 Alexei Ramirez 0.414
138 B.J. Upton 0.413
139 Ben Revere 0.411
140 David Murphy 0.410
141 Yunel Escobar 0.408
142 Miguel Montero 0.403
143 Jayson Nix 0.403
144 Vernon Wells 0.402
145 Melky Cabrera 0.397
146 Zack Cozart 0.393
147 Erick Aybar 0.391
148 Alcides Escobar 0.390
149 Martin Prado 0.387
150 Victor Martinez 0.384
151 Juan Pierre 0.381
152 Elvis Andrus 0.373
153 Starlin Castro 0.371
154 Yuniesky Betancourt 0.369
155 Mike Moustakas 0.364
156 Andrelton Simmons 0.364
157 Pete Kozma 0.357
158 Placido Polanco 0.349
159 Adeiny Hechavarria 0.321
160 Jeff Keppinger 0.320

Haha Jeff Keppinger.

As I typically do, I’ll use the SPP leaderboard as a vehicle to discuss the early season surprises or disappointments.

First, Michael Cuddyer.  The Rockies outfielder is currently in the midst of a 27 game hit streak and he’s a long way off from Joe Dimaggio’s 56 gamer (I really just wanted an excuse to mention the fact that Dimaggio hit in 56 straight games. 56!).  Still, Cuddyer has only recently made noise thanks to his elongated hitting streak and he also missed a few weeks in Mid-May thanks to injury so his status as a first half hero went unnoticed by much of the national media.  However, SPP noticed him.  Cuddyer comes in 5th, ahead of guys like Mike Trout, Joey Votto, and Robinson Cano.

Chris Davis beat out Miguel Cabrera.  Last year, SPP helped me to decide that Mike Trout should have been the MVP.  This year, Chris Davis beating Miguel Cabrera sure makes the second half MVP discussion interesting.  Miguel Cabrera is an all time great compiling his finest season at the plate, but Chris Davis is also driving the ball at a rate never before seen.  If Chris Davis continued at this pace, he’d have a single season SPP that ranked 30th all time.  15 of the seasons ahead of him belong to Bonds or Ruth.  To Miguel Cabrera’s credit, this season would rank him 55th all time.  Cabrera’s best SPP years, in order (all time rank): 2013 (55th), 2010 (118th), 2011 (246th), 2006 (313th), 2012 (326th).  So last year, when he won the MVP, it was his (statistically) 4th best complete season and this year he’s on pace to do even better.

Note Mike Trout is sixth.  He hasn’t gotten the publicity that he received last year and frankly he has not quite deserved it, but he’s still compiling a great season.  Figuring his first half numbers across the full season, Trout’s on pace for 26 home runs and 40 steals while hitting .315. Oh yeah, and he’s currently fourth in the Majors in total bases.  That’s damn good.

If you were looking for Manny Machado anywhere in the top 64 places in the standings, good luck.  Despite the record setting doubles pace, a few home runs, and the ability to steal, Machado may not be putting together the offensive season we think.  He’s got just 15 walks, fewer than Placido Polanco and has been successful on 60% of his steal attempts.  SPP values Machado less than Johnny Peralta, Allen Craig and Marlin Byrd.  I’m not ready to extinguish his star flame just yet as Machado’s value also lies in his defense and age (he’s 20).

-Sean Morash

Stat of the Day: I compiled a 10,708 row excel file and have the SPP ranks of every qualifying season ever.  Of note, the best season ever was Bonds 2004 (when he had 120 intentional walks), followed by Bonds, Bonds, Bonds, Ruth, Ruth, McGwire.  Also of note, Hal Lanier holds 3 of the 5 worst seasons ever.  Sounds like OTBB readers need more info on Hal Lanier.

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