Each year, casual fans read some bleacher report article from some misinformed “baseball” writer proclaiming the biggest surprises of the early season. Here’s an example. But often, these “big surprises” are foreseen by the baseball data geeks who spend their time not working whatever office job pays them to sit there for most of the day in front of the computer screen. Where some people have Desperate Housewives, or others Second Life, these noble information junkies try to discover the next big thing even before he discovers himself. Sometimes, they are right. Other times, not so right. However, there are some storylines to this 2013 season that contradict the general baseball opinions held from Spring Training. Some are surprising and others not so much.
Tortonto Blue Jays are in Last Place
We here at OTBB are not afraid to tell you when we were right. I even dedicated an entire post last summer to how my prediction for the Nationals 2012 was spot on. In that vein, we told you so. An unfortunate combination of injuries from players who get injured often (We’re looking at you Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and Brandon Morrow) and a knuckleballer brought in to stabilize a pitching staff with the least stable weapon ever conceived in baseball (the knuckleball) has lead to the Blue Jays demise. There is still time to right the ship, but this Super-Team had concerns from the start. Is it really all that surprising that Jose Reyes (played more than 133 games once since 2008), Josh Johnson (3 for 7 at pitching 100 innings in a year since his rookie year), Brandon Morrow (never 180 IP), Brett Lawrie (130 GP once in professional baseball) or RA Dickey have struggled? I think not. This team is very good on paper, but injury concerns were there when this team was put together and they’ve reared their head.
Josh Hamilton Sorta Sucks
Where many people will always say Josh Hamilton is a streaky player and he’ll turn it around, I’m less convinced. In the past calendar year, Hamilton has hit 30 home runs (20th in MLB) but sports just a .239 average and a .301 OBP. The numbers suggested he may be heading this way as June, July and September of last year saw Hamilton post averages of .223, .177 and .245. This is a guy who has made his career on going off for weeks at a time and then sorta sucking the rest of the time. I should make a post about this, so wait before shredding me to pieces on that statement. Just know that there is a reason so many teams were hesitant to go after the former MVP when he was a free agent last winter.
Chris Davis is Awesome
Look, nobody would have thought that the Orioles’ first baseman would be on pace to break Roger Marris’ “clean” home run record, but his success this year isn’t so much a surprise as a confirmation of the second half that he compiled in 2012. Last year he clubbed 33 homers overall, but 10 of them came in September and if Jose Bautista’s breakout 2010 taught us anything, it’s that previous September numbers portend future success. While that rule is anything but steadfast (example: BJ Upton hit 12 homers last September), Chris Davis always had the potential to be awesome and last year, he was sorta awesome. Now, he’s dropped the “sorta” and is just awesome.
Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish are Great
I hate to sound like a broken record here, but it seems that too often great second halves go far more unrecognized than great first halves. Max Scherzer put together a great second half last year, posting a 2.69 ERA over 90 innings, striking out 110. He’s always been a strikeout machine, but in 2012’s second half, Scherzer was better than his more decorated rotation-mate (Verlander’s 2012 second half: 2.73 ERA over 105.2 IP, and 111 strikeouts). Oh yeah, and Scherzer had the second worst BABIP in baseball all of last year. Yu Darvish’s late season success was far more acute than Scherzer’s. His September stats were sparkling however. In the month, Darvish posted a 2.21 ERA and maintained his excellent strikoute rate. Now, he’s leading the league in strikeouts and looks like an Ace.
The Philadelphia Phillies Suck
The writing has been on the wall for this organization since they put entirely too much money into their aging core. Ryan Howard will make $25 Million each of the next three seasons despite the fact that he has compiled 2.9 WAR since the start of 2010 (or about as much as David Ortiz has meant in the batters box in 77 games this year). They’re paying Jonathon Papelbon $13 Million to close, and Michael Young over $15 Million to be old. I know they’re an organization that has money and a similar exercise could be done for the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Angels, but winning changes things. This is a team that has John Lannan and Kyle Kendrick starting games for it. But, how did we know this team would be bad? How about Roy Halladay’s disappointing 2012 in which he went 11-8 with a 4.49 ERA and didn’t look right the whole time? Or Ryan Howard’s negative WAR 2012? Or Chase Utley failing to play in 120 games since 2009?
Look, what have we learned from this exercise? Second half numbers should be more revered than first half numbers as they often serve as markers for when things might turn around or that a slugger may be better than in previous years. We’ve also noticed that big time organizations relying too heavily on oft-injured players fail. Being surprised than an oft-injured player gets injured is like being surprised when you don’t know how to speak German after never taking German lessons.
I’ve decided that I need to connect with my audience a bit more. The type of connection where people like to read my writing not just because they like what I have to say or how I convey my message, but because they relate to me and my life. Today’s portal into my life: I’m writing this as I wait for the latest episode of Dexter to buffer and while enjoying a nice WarSteiner beer. Based on the label it is a “Familien-tradition seit 1753” and it’s a pretty tasty German beer. Royal OTBB viewers, prepare yourself for the impending launch of our “beer” section wherein I drink some beer and pompously review them. I suppose this was all a misguided attempt to further bring my audience into my line of thinking. Whatever.
-Sean Morash
