It is now free agent season and Off The Bench is embarking to bring each team a preview of what to expect as open signing dawns today. Each day, we’ll be posting a preview of a division and a final Bold Predictions post will follow, hopefully before any of the big pieces ink their deals. After missing a post last Sunday to figure out that I really hate all the delays and game pace of the NFL, our schedule had already fallen a bit off track before a job offer brought me to the professional world. After spending the past four days pondering the offer, assessing rental costs in the DC Metropolitan area, celebrating my newfound employment, and watching the entire first season of Newsroom to get a feel for how things work in DC, the endeavor will culminate today. This is not intended to be a full offseason preview as the hot stove has yet to heat up and we have no real sense of the market. Names like David Price, Mark Trumbo, and Peter Bourjos will capture our attention in the coming months, but for now we’ll set the table for what each team might be looking for as free agency hits. Please note that all dollar amounts are in millions, and that MM and M also mean million. (So, for that matter, do ‘ml’ ‘milly’ ‘six-ohs’ and ‘big boy $’s.’) Today, we tackle the AL East.
Baltimore Orioles: Available Budget: $30 Million
The Orioles’ key free agent losses this offseason appear to be Nate McLouth, Brian Roberts, and Jason Hammel. That means that they will essentially return the same nucleus of talent that brought Baltimore 85 wins in 2013, leaving the club free to address its primary issue: pitching. The 2012 tilt saw the magic of Buck Showalter and sustained, masterly relief performances from a crew of relative no names. Those masterly performances became less “sustained” in 2013. Those same no names, so impeccable in 2012, turned in disastrous outings left and right in 2013 and had a lot to do with the Orioles missing the playoffs. As if that weren’t bad enough, they had just one pitcher make over 30 starts. The only thing worse than an unreliable bullpen is being forced to use it.
This offseason the Orioles’ focus will be in stabilizing that pitching staff. AJ Burnett has made at least 30 starts in 6 straight seasons, but seems just as likely to go 2 innings as throw a shutout every time out. That’s not stability. He has stated that he’s going to retire or be a Pirate in 2014, so no need for Orioles fans to convince delude themselves that Burnett coming back to the AL East is a good idea. The group of talented, injury riddled guys (Josh Johnson, Johann Santana, etc.) that I’ve mentioned in relation to a number of teams does anything but provide stability. Ervin Santana has made at least 30 starts in every year since he cracked a Major League rotation, and his down year in 2012 seems like the perfect scenario for a hidden injury blip year (he’s had ERA’s between 3.9 and 3.2 in the three other years that he’s made at least 30 starts). He’s the guy I want if I’m Dan Duquette, but his reported $90 Million demands scare me. Also of interest should be Joe Saunders and his cheap innings, and Tim Hudson. After solidifying pitching, Dan needs to bring back Nate McLouth, lest the left field situation of 2014 become the second base situation of ’13. The good news is that they’ve got money to spend. It may be the last year they can say that as Chris Davis’ impending climb up the arbitration ladder may well have them seeking to make the jump this offseason.
Boston Red Sox: Available Budget: $35-40 Million
The Red Sox just won the World Series for the third time since 2004 and the cast of characters with which they open 2014 may look drastically different (and not just because they’ll hopefully shave). Starting Centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, First Baseman Mike Napoli, and Shortstop Stephen Drew are all testing the waters of free agency. So, too, is Opening Day closer Joel Hanrahan. They’ll bring back Big Papi and Dustin Pedroia, and the starting pitching ensemble that dominated in the postseason will be back in its entirety. So what is on the Red Sox’ agenda?
I have seen reports linking Brian McCann and Tim Hudson to Boston, but the Red Sox appear to have six viable starting pitching candidates in Jon Lester, Clay Bucholz, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Ryan Dempster, and Felix Dubrount. With uncertainty around Bucholz’ shoulder and Dempster’s $13 Million : 4.57, salary to ERA ratio, I see why the Red Sox would value pitching depth next year, but that seems like something to address midseason when those needs arise. Of bigger concern is the outfield and catcher situation. The two other free agents mentioned at the top, Mike Napoli and Stephen Drew, appear to be set in Boston going forward. Napoli because he loves it there, and Drew because the Red Sox extended him a qualifying offer of $14.1 Million that may tie the hands of interested teams unwilling to part with a draft pick to sign the shortstop. Brian McCann makes a lot of sense in Boston and I would not be surprised to see him team with David Ross once again. The outfield situation is a little less clear as Jacoby Ellsbury appears to really be on the open market. The Red Sox have flexibility with Jackie Bradley Jr. waiting in the wings (at a considerable discount), and Shane Victorino could always shift back over to center. In that scenario the outfield needs could be addressed with a new right fielder. Curtis Granderson might be a very interesting fit in Boston. With the OBP and P/PA philosophies a driving force in Boston, I keep coming back to Shin-Soo Choo when looking at replacements for Ellsbury. The Red Sox would likely be best with bringing back Ellsbury, but have already been clowned by a big contract to a speedy outfielder recently.
New York Yankees: Available Budget: $82 Million
The Yankees currently have about $102 Million on the books for 2014. That number could represent their lowest payroll total since at least before 2000. They’re sure to spend a great deal this offseason, but have stated again and again that they plan to get below the $189 M figure to reset their salary tax in 2014. I believe them. Still, they’ve got some enormous holes to fill and some enormous free agents/retirings from a team that finished tied for third with the Orioles. As of today, they’ve got needs at second base, (in one way or another, third base), one outfield spot, catcher, and basically all of the pitching staff. It will be a noisy offseason for the Yankees, but also an important one.
The Yankees’ primary job is to ensure that Robinson Cano returns. They’ve also got to get at least one starting pitcher to join Ivan Nova and CC Sabathia in the rotation. They’ve been linked to Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka. The posting fee for Tanaka would not count against the Yankees goal to get below the salary tax threshold and would represent an opportunity to try to bring the Big Dog label back to New York. Presumably, they did not run Chris Stewart out there every day at catcher in 2013 to sit quietly as Brian McCann flirts with the Red Sox and Rangers. Further, Ichiro, Vernon Wells, and Alfonso Soriano would be much better if it were 2005. Brett Gardner is in the mix, but relegating Vernon Wells to fourth outfielder spot/DH would be a good idea. They’ll be in most every discussion for every big name free agent this offseason and should bring at least a few of them to the Bronx.
Tampa Bay Rays: Available Budget: $3-4 Million
The Rays have surely spent much more time than I have calculating the arbitration raises due their players, but with a hinted payroll decrease from the $62 Million of 2013, the Rays will not have much money regardless. They seem serious about trading David Price and would likely be in the market for more starting pitching and help at catcher in a trade. The Rays DH situation was not pretty in 2013 and they figure to try to improve that.
The Rays offseason preview is never all that exciting, but we’ve already made a case that they could be interested in the next Francisco Liriano, and I think Rajai Davis looks like a Ray. I have to wonder where Michael Morse will end up as he attempts to regain his market value. Still, they brought back David DeJesus to team with Wil Myers and Desmond Jennings in the outfield. So really, the biggest question is how the Rays will fill out their bullpen behind Joel Peralta.
Toronto Blue Jays: Available Budget: $0 Million
Basing the Blue Jays payroll on where they were to open the 2013 season lands us squarely at a projected budget of–zilch. Actually, it seems like Toronto will need to find about $2 M in the couch cushions to cover the raises due to R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, and Mark Beurhle. The good news is that the club brings back most of the same players that we were so excited about last offseason. The club needs to figure out its pitching situation as the 25th best ERA in all of baseball will not be tolerated again. The rotation was decimated by injuries (to injury-prone players, it should be added), while the bullpen actually held the 4th best ERA among AL teams and figures to return most of the important arms.
There’s been mutual interest in bringing back Josh Johnson in what can only be considered an attempt to melt down pennies and sell the copper. Whatever that fiasco ends up looking like, the Blue Jays need to get creative in finding a reliable starting pitcher capable of joining RA Dickey and Mark Beurhle atop the rotation. Brandon Morrow is exciting, but cannot be trusted, while Ricky Romero is scheduled to make $7.75 milly over each of the next two years–and pitched just 7 innings in 2013. Creativity will be the Blue Jays’ card this winter because the ability to simply buy the Marlins does not respawn at the beginning of every season.
-Sean Morash
Link of the Day: This is a Vine video from Generation Opportunity’s tailgate before the Miami/Virginia Tech college football game this past weekend. It’s only noteworthy because Generation Opportunity is a Koch brothers (Tea Party) funded anti-Obamacare organization.
