Out of what seemed like the clear blue sky yesterday, the Yankees announced that they had come to terms with speedy outfielder Brett Gardner on a 4 year, $52 million extension that will keep him in pinstripes for at least the next 5 seasons (the deal kicks in after this season).
Gardner, who is already 30 years old and a 6 year MLB veteran, has been a mainstay in the Yankee lineup since 2009, aside from missing almost all of 2012 with injuries. He is a stolen base machine, leading the league in the category in 2011 with 49, after stealing 47 the previous season.
It has always been Gardner’s bat that has been the question mark, but he’s proved that he’s a pretty consistent .270ish hitter over the course of a year; pretty solid for a guy with his speed, above average OBP, and stellar defensive abilities (save last year, though the expected move to left field full time will return him to the top tier defensively). Over the course of his career, Gardner’s wRC+ is 101, making him an essentially average offensive player.
Put all of Gardner’s skills together, however, and you get a very productive piece of a roster. He posted a stellar 7.4 WAR in 2011 and a very strong 4.2 number last season. In a vacuum, he’s absolutely a player you would want to keep around.
The story gets a bit more complicated, though. This winter, the Yankees signed former Red Sox superstar Jacoby Ellsbury to a massive longterm contract. In essence, Ellsbury is a better Brett Gardner. Ellsbury led the AL in steals last season with 52 and in 2011, his best season, he hit 32 homers to go along with 39 steals en route to a 2nd place MVP finish.
Together, Ellsbury and Gardner make a dynamic top of the order in the Bronx. The acquisition of Ellsbury, the superior defender, allows Gardner to slide to left where he has been one of the game’s top gloves. With Gardner leading off and Ellsbury, who has more pop, batting second, the Yankees could be blessed with the best one-two slots in the game–without a doubt the fastest. This is particularly exciting for Yankee fans because stolen bases have never really been a major part of the Bombers’ success. It makes a ton of sense that the Yankees would want to keep this combo together for a while, but there’s no guarantee that the two will remain as exciting through their 30s.
It’s not just that the Yankees have locked up one speedy 30-year old outfielder with this deal, they’ve locked themselves into two as Ellsbury is the same age. While a lot has been written this winter about how players like Ellsbury and Gardner who rely on their speed actually age better than expected, there can be no doubt that they’ll each lose a step or two over the next couple seasons.
Further, the Yankees outfield is now essentially set for the foreseeable future with Gardner in left, Ellsbury in center, and newly acquired Carlos Beltran as the everyday right fielder. Ichiro will be the all purpose backup and Alfonso Soriano will split time with Beltran as an OF/DH guy. Ellsbury and Gardner, each 30, remember, are the youngest of that bunch by a very substantial margin. In signing Gardner long term, the Yankees have removed any potential flexibility they had in their outfield. All three starters are entering long term, high value contracts.
There is another, less direct but equally major impact of this extension as well. The Yankees do not have what you might call a “deep roster.” While the outfield looks good, it is positively ancient and asking for something to go wrong. And that’s the least of the Yankees worries! This biggest concern for this team is at second base and third base where the suspension of Alex Rodriguez and the departure of Robinson Cano have left gaping holes. As of now, the Yankees have plans to fill them, but Kelly Johnnson and Brian Roberts don’t exactly instill a ton of confidence. Gardner had been talked about for much of the winter as potential trade bait to help fill those voids.
Here at Off the Bench, we chronicled the ways it would make sense for the Yankees to swap Gardner for Brandon Phillips, the second baseman of the Reds. Thanks to his many tools, Gardner is a hot commodity and could have fetched a good return. Now, obviously, the Yanks have committed to keeping Gardner around long term.
The Yankees have locked down a potentially excellent outfield, and that’s good. The Yankees have done it with some players who already have a ton of miles on them and who are likely to break down at some point during the next few seasons, and that’s bad. The team has removed positional flexibility in the outfield and the flexibility of their front office to trade from a strength to fill a weakness, that’s bad too. On balance, though, the good seems to outweigh the bad here. Brett Gardner is a Yankee and will be for a long time. Hopefully, he and his counterpart Jacoby Ellsbury can bring success back to the Bombers.
-Max Frankel
