In previous years, Off The Bench has run its extremely popular “30 Teams in 30 Days” series in the month prior to each new season. While the finished product of 30 Teams was a thorough and nuanced preview, it was extremely time consuming and taxing to put together. In college, that wasn’t a problem because 2 hours of class and 3 hours of baseball practice a day left ample time for wanton prognostication. Nowadays, Sean and I are both post-grad professionals with full time jobs to tend to. For that reason, we’ve decided to take a new tact. Welcome to “6 Divisions in 3 Weeks” where OTBB will strive to offer the same great season previews that have defined us–now repackaged in 6 tasty chunks rather than 30 bite size morsels. Bon appetit.
As it is our tradition to begin with the reigning champs, today the first installment in our series will focus on the AL East, one of the most difficult to read divisions in recent memory.
Like the league itself, each division is usually stratified. There are inevitably surprises, but typically it’s not too hard to pare the meat from the gristle; a savvy observer can generally predict which half of the division a team will finish in with pretty good accuracy. Not so in this year’s AL East.
This division boasts one of the most jumbled up group of teams we’ve ever seen. Each and every club has a legitimate chance to win. The Red Sox are the reigning champs and won 97 games in 2013; the Rays have baseball’s best pitching, bar none; the Yankees won 85 games last year and just spent nearly half a billion dollars retooling; the Orioles are led by one of the game’s best managers and have finally addressed the areas of need on an already strong club; and the Blue Jays enter Year Two with one of the most talent-laden rosters in baseball–a roster most experts picked to take the division last year.
Projected Finish:
- New York Yankees
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Boston Red Sox
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Baltimore Orioles
Solidifying this projected finish was no easy task. Sean and I went back and forth for days. Initially, our respective predictions were almost exact opposites and I wouldn’t be surprised by any outcome in this stacked division. After some hemming and hawing, we decided on the above.
Here’s how we got there.
Baltimore Orioles, 5th place AL East. 82-80.
It’s tough for a last place team to win 82 games these days but I think the Orioles could do it. They have the weapons to beat up on enough teams from the rest of the league to balance out the strength of their division. Their backbone continues to be their bats. Matt Weiters is still around, despite persistent rumors that he might be moved, and he compliments the likes of Adam Jones, JJ Hardy, Nick Markakis, and slugger Chris Davis. In addition, Manny Machado will return from injury soon and resume his post as the game’s best defensive third basemen and an offensive lightning rod. This team is built to score and can definitely hang with the best teams in baseball–offensively.
Baltimore’s offensive prowess is necessary because they’ll be spending a lot more time trying to win games 8-7 than 1-0. The O’s just invested in Ubaldo Jimenez to be their Ace, but Jimenez is one of the least reliable starters in the game and was simply the best of the rest in terms of free agents this winter. His supporting cast isn’t so great either. Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman, Wei-yin Chen, and Bud Norris are all capable starters, but clearly constitute the weakest rotation in the division.
The bullpen for Baltimore is strong, which is good since it will likely be needed quite often. Brian Matusz is a former starter who has excelled and Kevin Gausman and Zach Britton can both be future starters in due time. Darren O’day and import Suk-min Yoon should be effective as well.
Toronto Blue Jays, 4th place AL East. 87-75
Last year, Toronto pulled off one of the biggest trades ever when it acquired Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson from the Marlins. Many experts thought this move could put Toronto over the top in the East. Alas, it was clearly not to be as injuries and bad luck torpedoed the team.
This year, things are looking up. The talent mostly remains and everybody is healthy. Reyes will look to improve upon his own injury plagued season with the help of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, who have become two of the most feared power hitters in baseball. Brett Lawrie, last season’s breakout pick du jour, will look to finally make good on all the hype in his age 24 season.
With Reyes and Colby Rasmus at the top, Bautista and Encarnacion in the middle, and the black hole that was the catcher position in 2013 plugged by Dioneer Navarro, the Jays look locked and loaded. If the offense stays healthy, it should score prolifically.
Toronto’s pitching could be just as strong. RA Dickey didn’t fare well in his first try at the AL East but the former Cy Young winner is healthy and poised for a bounce back season. Dickey is joined by Brandon Morrow, who is nasty but managed only 10 starts last season, and Mark Buehrle, one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. The final two spots in the rotation will be a fight between a whole bunch of guys while Toronto waits for future big leaguers Marcus Stroman and friend of the blog Sean Nolin to develop.
In the ‘pen, Casey Jansson remains the closer and he is joined by a strong core of pitchers including All-Star Steve Delabar. That group, which was hit by the injury bug last year too, should be among the games best, however the starting staff is where the Jays distinguish themselves from Baltimore.
Boston Red Sox, 3rd place AL East, 90- 72
It’s only in this divison where a 90 win team is the choice for third place. The reigning champs return nearly everyone from their bearded run into the history books and are as stacked as anyone in the game.
While the loss of starting centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury hurts, the Red Sox have enough fire power to make up for his production. Shane Victorino and Daniel Nava will get on base in front of the Dustin Pedrioa, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli meat. New catcher AJ Pierzynski should be an improvement over Jarrod Saltalamacchia on both sides of the ball.
After that, there is a lot of upside but an equal measure of uncertainty. Jackie Bradley Jr. is expected to jump right into the lineup in centerfield, something he was unable to do last season. Likewise, Xander Bogaerts is being given the keys to shortstop, a tall order for a 21 year old, no matter how talented. At third base, Will Middlebrooks has shown a ton of pop, but also a propensity for three unsavory letters: K and DL. He will have to remain patient and in the lineup. It must also be noted that Ortiz–who, as he will be quick to remind you, has shown no signs of slowing down–is now 38 years old and that will eventually catch up to him.
On the mound, the Sox look strong. Veteran Ryan Dempster, who decided to take the year off for some reason, probably wasn’t even going to make the rotation anyway. Jon Lester is the leader of the staff and he’s followed by Clay Buchholz, who was nearly unbeatable when healthy last year, Jake Peavy, and the new low fat version of John Lackey. Felix Doubront is a strong 5th starter.
Behind the rotation is a bullpen that returns All-Star Koji Uehara for the ninth, Junichi Tazawa for the eighth (until proven otherwise), and shutdown lefty Craig Breslow. The newly acquired Edward Mujica will fit in there somewhere as well. Youth brings question marks after that, as the emergent Brandon Workman will be counted on along with Drake Britton and perhaps the wild Ruby De La Rosa. Again, upside with a health dose of uncertainty.
It seems that the regression monster is primed to tear through the Boston clubhouse this year. Shane Victorino had a shockingly good season in 2013 and is unlikely to repeat that level of success. Same goes for Uehara, who will spend the full season as the closer this go around. It seems likely that Boston will be very good, but you have to be great to win this division.
Tampa Bay Rays, 2nd place, Al East. 93- 69.
The Rays might not have the name recognition of the Red Sox and Yankees but they are consistently near the top of the division year in and year out. And 2014 won’t be the exception. The Rays pitching is otherworldly, especially in the starting staff. David Price is one of the top hurlers in the game–maybe the 2nd best lefty after Kershaw–and he is still with the club after no team could put together a big enough package to pry him away this winter. Behind him, Alex Cobb went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA last season, Chris Archer has a 3.22 ERA in 23 starts, and Matt Moore is poised to take the leap into the game’s upper echelon with his superb breaking stuff and upper 90’s fastball. Quite frankly, the only other team in baseball with a top 4 that even resemble Tampa’s is the Dodgers. The Cardinals, who are excellent, might be a distant third, along with the Nationals. With newly acquired Grant Balfour at the back of the ‘pen, the whole pitching staff is rock solid.
The offense is no slouch, though will be indeed be carried by the staff. Evan Longoria is the cornerstone of the lineup at third base, and Wil Meyers, entering his first full season after winning Rookie of the Year in 2013, should be an effective partner in crime. Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings are the biggest bats of the remaining starters but the Rays are known for great role player contributions maximized by the Joe Maddon mix-and-match strategy.
The biggest question mark in Tampa is with the bats. Can James Loney replicate his surprising 2013 success? Can Desmond Jennings? Also, what will the front office do with Price and Zobrist, two stars who will likely be too expensive to retain as free agents? The Rays can’t afford to keep them around but can they afford to trade them?
New York Yankees, 1st place AL East. 95- 67.
We’ll start with the obvious: the Yankees were not very good last season and missed the playoffs. Even the team has acknowledged that their 85 wins last year were not indicative of the talent of the team. In order to remedy their many problems, the Bombers b(r)ought in help: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Masahiro Tanaka, cost ungodly sums of money, but will prove unbelievably valuable.
There are still holes, mind you. With Robinson Cano in Seattle and Alex Rodriguez at home on his couch, the Yankees are plugging holes at second and third with duct tape and chewing gum, but the new firepower should more than compensate.
With Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, the Yankees have themselves two incredible defenders in the outfield and a 1-2 offensive punch capable of stealing 90 bases. In the middle of the order, Beltran, McCann and Mark Texeira should generate a ton of runs and homers. Texeira is the Wild Card. Should he continue his recent injured and/or underperforming ways, the whole lineup could suffer. The Yankees need him to live up to his salary in 2014.
Even if second and third remain troublesome, the Yankees 1-6 hitters (including Derek Jeter) are so talented that they should still be near the top of the MLB in runs.
On the mound, the Yankees have some question marks to be sure. Hiroki Kuroda is back and will hopefully be as consistent as ever, but CC Sabathia will need to improve on a disastrous 2013 and learn to pitch with diminished velocity. Tanaka will take his first crack at the MLB and while he is expected to be very good, you just never know. Ivan Nova is the 4 starter and he is a very capable one at that. The big mystery is that last spot in the rotation. Watch out for Michael Pineda. If he regains his form from 2011 with Seattle, he could turn the whole division on it’s head.
Yankees fans will need to adjust to life post-Mariano Rivera, but David Robertson should make it a smooth transition. The rest of the bullpen is strong enough that Derek Jeter’s farewell tour should be a good one.
Bold Predictions:
- Everything I just wrote is wrong and the Al East will finish Baltimore, Toronto, Boston, Tampa, New York
- Masahiro Tanaka will win AL Rookie of the Year
- Derek Jeter will be the AL’s leading All-Star vote getter
- Koji Uehara will not be the Red Sox closer by September
- Three teams from this division will make the playoffs
- Edwin Encarnacion will hit 18 homers
- Chris Davis will hit 28 homers
- David Ortiz will bat .299 with 26 bombs and 110 RBIs. He will get MVP votes
- “Jeter for president. They’re going to have one last magical run. Rivera’s coming out of retirement before the World Series and throwing lefty for 4 innings because he can’t raise his right arm in the 34th inning after Girardi used 4 pitchers in the 6th to save game 7.”- Sean Morash
-Max Frankel
