Before I lay out my grand plan for an unprecedented three team triangle trade of skippers, let me first make clear that it is possible to trade non-players. In fact, it just happened. Last winter, the Boston Red Sox sent utility infielder Mike Aviles to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for manager John Farrell. Ferrell is now the toast of Boston, he’s reinvigorated the team and star pitchers Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. None of that would be possible without a manger trade.

So there you have it. Managers can be traded and, like players, they can find great success with one organization after sputtering with another.

The three guys I’m talking about dealing have hardly sputtered. (well, sort of, but I’ll get to that) Ron Gardenhire has been the manager of the Minnesota Twins for 12 seasons. He has amassed 950 wins, good for a .522 winning percentage. In his 12 years, he has finished in the top three in manager of the voting 7 times, including winning the award once, in 2010. The 55 year old guided the Twinkies to 6 AL Central division crowns, an impressive feat.

In recent seasons, however, Gardenhire and his team has struggled. In 2011, stung by injuries to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, the Twins won only 63 games, finishing 63-99 and inlast place. Last year was a lost one as well. The Twins won 66 games and finished last yet again. This season, behind some bad pitching, the Twins only 18-19 in a deep and competitive division. As an organization, the Twins have a long way to go. They have begun the process of rebuilding from the ground up and it looks to be a long one. Gardenhire, still one of the game’s elite managers , might not be the right guy for the task. While he’s not all that old, he is pretty close to the peak of his managerial powers and he might not want to waste four or five season at the helm of a loser. Further, over time, managerial voices get stale. Players need a change and, after 12 seasons, it might be time for the Twins to have a new voice.

Out in LA, meanwhile, there are two tricky managerial situations.  Unlike the Twins, the Angels were expected to compete for a championship this season. Their manager, Mike Scoscia, is considered one of the games’ best and their roster is jam packed with superstars. Last season, the Angels were a disappointment and there were grumblings that Scoscia’s time might be up in Anaheim. Scoscia, who has been with the team for 14 seasons, is known as one of the most powerful mangers in the game but last year he had a coach fired out from under him, much to his dismay.

This season has considerably worse. Favored by many to win the AL West, the Angels have the third worst record in the bigs. Despite Scoscia’s considerable resume- an 1170-977 record, 2 manager of the year awards, and a World Series championship- the angels might be ready to move on in an effort to reinvigorate a roster they can’t afford to give up.

Down the freeway, the Dodgers are in a similar situation. They spent a small fortune this winter putting together what might be the most talented roster in the majors (and what is definitely the most expensive). However, the Dodgers have underperformed to the tune of a 17-22 record and 5th place in a division they expected to win. Their manager, former Yankee great Don Mattingly is in only his third season and sports a 185-177 record. Though the Dodgers ownership has voiced support for Mattingly recently, the grumblings about his job security has gotten louder. Of all big league mangers, his seat seems like it might be the hottest.

So, now that we know who everybody is and why they need a change of scenery, lets take a look at where they should go. Here’s my proposed trade:

The Los Angeles Dodgers send Don Mattingly and pitcher Brandon League to the Minnesota Twins. The Twins send manager Ron Gardenhire to the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels send manager Mike Scioscia to the Dodgers.

Here’s why it works:

The Dogers get Scioscia, a guy with a proven track record of winning and winning in LA. He comes in and immediately brings a managerial accumen, experience, and credibility that Don Mattingly lacks.For the team, its a much needed guiding hand. For Scioscia, its the same city where he’s thrived but new people, a new environment, an energetic and excited fan base and supportive owners. With the Dodgers, his tired anecdotes are fresh and new, his coaching tips might be revelations for some guys and he has the chance to make an immediate impact.

What was stale with the American League’s LA team might be a shot in the arm of the National League’s LA club.

The Angels get Gardenhire. Gardenhire is winner who knows what it takes to guide a star studded team to the playoffs. He would take over a team with three of the best struggling hitters in baseball and two of the games upper echelon starters. Gardenhire would be thrown in in the deep end in terms of expectations but that might be refreshing for him after coming from 66 win Minnesota. Like Scioscia, his coaching techniques, which were old news in Minneapolis, would be fresh and different for guys like Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Though the Angels would be losing a guy with a great resume, they guy they would be getting in return is just as savvy. Gardenhire would be a great fit for the Halos.

The Twins would get Mattingly and League. I threw League in here for a variety of reasons. Mattingly is the least valuable of the three managers involved and the Twins might need a little something to part with Gardenhire in favor of him. League is a proven late game reliever and the idea is that the Twins could flip him at the trade deadline for some younger value. If the Twins eat 1/3 of League’s salary, the Dodgers get out from under at least part of a contract they must regret and the Twins get a cheap guy to trade to a contender.

Mattingly, the youngest and least experienced of the relevant managers, could be well served continuing to learn the ropes on a rebuilding team. There has been a lot of criticism of him of late, some commenters are saying that he’s too much of a players’ manager and perhaps some time in Minnesota could help him hone his craft. (This harkens back to that whole thing about him refusing to manage in the minors a la Ryan Sandberg)

Basically, everybody wins with this deal. Three team get better fits, two could be reinvigorated into playoff runs. Three managers get better fits, for one, a less pressure packed opportunity to establish himself as the long term solution for a up and coming team, for another, the chance to get back in to the playoff push and help a struggling contender, and for the third, the chance to change horses midstream and take another crack at 2013 in a better situation for him.

This will work. Make it happen.

-Max Frankel

Now your immediate thought is why the hell would anyone’s favorite baseball player be Phil Hughes? He is not very good, he has never had a big moment in a big game, and he is not particularly special in any way. He is even a pretty moderately handsome guy. He is nothing special.

That’s the beauty of favorite players. Oftentimes they are not the best looking, big game hitting, best overall players around. They oftentimes are those players, but if you think about all your friends and their favorite players, you will without a doubt come upon a no name dime-a-dozen replacement quality player amongst the bunch. I can think right now and tell you one friend of mine had Jeff Cirillo as his favorite player until he left the league, then had Jeremy Reed as his favorite player. Not only were these players short lived Mariners, but they were both horrible Mariners as well.

So let’s look at some of the reasons why people choose their favorite players.

First and foremost, people can choose their favorite ballplayers because they are winners. Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Felix Hernandez, Ken Griffey Jr. All of these players are the best at what they do, or were the best at what they did. They are all good looking guys and win baseball games. (Felix wins guys, I swear) It is pretty simple why someone would choose these types of players as their favorite, they get to feel good every time these players do something good, which is more than the rest of the league. If Jeter was my favorite player, I would feel like I won a bunch of championships and dated the hottest women on the planet to some degree, those are nice feelings.

Second, people choose favorite ballplayers because they share a similarity to them. For a while I was very fond of Mike Lieberthal. He never played for my favorite team and  never was that great of a player but, he was a defensive Jewish catcher, and that was the type of player I was. It was as if a future version of me was playing for the Phillies. For other people its simpler. They might look like that player, they might play their favorite position on their favorite team, or they might have come from the same city or neighborhood. Again it makes us as fans feel good when these players do something good. If I’m similar to these players than it’s almost like I did these awesome things.

Third, there are moments that create favorite players. The first game Mike Cameron played as a Mariner was a huge one for him. He was involved in the trade that sent Griffey to the Reds and he needed to do something to make Mariners fans not hate him. Early on in the game, Cameron robbed a home run. From that moment on he was a favorite among mariners fans. He also had a four home run game later in his Mariners career which also contributed to him being many fans’ favorite player. Moments like these- a walk off home run, a  great catch in the outfield, striking out 15 in a game- can create favorite players. This type of player is all about remembering the past and not being connected to the player in the future. You already have your feel good moment or moments.

Lastly, you have your no connection at all, no explanation given for why a player is a fan’s favorite. These are tough to describe. Some, like Phil Hughes or Jeremy Reed, seem like they could fall under this category, but both of my friends had their moments, and similarities to them. However, these type of favorites do exist. Next time someone tells you their favorite player is some no name 40 man roster call up, ask them why. If they cant tell you a reason then this is it. Fandom and liking things or people are not always explainable, there will be times in your life when you have know idea why you feel a certain way but you know you feel that way nonetheless. Don’t try to explain it, just go with it. Feelings do not need to be explained, especially about some silly sport where a wooden stick and leather coated ball are involved. I know I can’t explain truly why I love this sport so much and I don’t feel the need to try to explain it, but I do love baseball still.

–David Ringold

@dhringold

Machado started the year off slowly. After the Orioles 18th game of the season, a 7-4 loss to the Dodgers, Manny was hitting only .250. Since that time, however, he’s been one of the most dangerous hitters in the game. Coming off his second consecutive 3 hit game, Machado’s average is up to .323. He has 6 multi hit games in his teams’ 10 May contests, including 3 of his 5 home runs. Manny has 5 games of 3 or more hits already this season. HIs OBP is currently .363 and his OPS is a very good .876.

Scouts and reporters have also been raving about Machado’s defense this season as well. Though he’s a natural shortstop and projects there in the future, he’s played third for his entire major league career so far and has done so exceptionally. His dWAR this year is .8, meaning that he’s won his team almost an entire game just with this glove. It’s hard to quantify defense, however, so you might just have to take my word for it on how good he really is.

What really sets Machado apart, however, is his value to his team. Machado is a burgeoning superstar and is anchoring the Orioles lineup from the top. He’s been getting on base ahead of sluggers Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis.

The Orioles are 22-15, 1 game behind the shockingly good Yankees and tied with the Red Sox for second in the AL East. They are doing their best to prove that last season’s success wasn’t a fluke. This year, Baltimore’s run differential of +25 is fifth in the AL, in large part thanks to Machado.

There might not be a player who means more to his team right now than this third basemen. Machado’s 2.2 WAR is good for second in the AL and 4th in the MLB but the guys ahead of him, Ian Kinsler, Gerardo Parra, and Carlos Gomez, seem way less likely to keep up their hot starts.

Last season, Mike Trout too the league by storm and waltzed to the AL Rookie of the Year award. Machado isn’t eligible for that thanks to his playing time last year but if the 20 year old keeps playing the way he is, and there’s no reason to think he can’t, he might just be this year’s Mike Trout, the young player every team wished they had.

-Max Frankel

This time around I figure I will discuss a topic that has hurt every team and has turned many fans’ favorite young stars into hated rivals. When do you as an organization give up on prospects?

Young players have gradually become the focus of the baseball world. And with savvy front offices always thinking towards the future, there has been a lot of movement among those players with great potential but no credentials  But what makes a move good decision versus a bad decision, and when should you cut your loses? The obvious and correct answer is, nobody knows. it’s a crapshoot and to go back and look at all the mistakes an organization has made is not only unhelpful but hurtful as well. However, that is a very boring and not fun decision to come to, so, I’l try to go the other way and figure out the answers myself.

Let’s start with the easy situations, if the player is very young, don’t give up on him! Young men usually don’t mature all the way until their mid 20′s. An 18 year old is not someone to give up on because by the time they are 24 they could be immensely stronger and 4 inches taller. On the opposite side, old prospects are one’s you should definitely give up on. A 26 year old ballplayer is not a prospect anymore, if they haven’t done what they were supposed to do by then, they wont do it ever. (Exception Roy Halladay)

So since we know 18-21 year olds are too young to give up on and anything above 26 is too old to expect them to change, what we are really looking at are 22-25 year old prospects. Let us break them down into four different groups: first we have the starting pitchers, second the relief pitchers, third the Pure hitters ( by this I mean players who don’t have a true defensive position but hit well enough to have made it to the high minors), and fourth we have the all around hitter prospects.

Each group has different qualifications for times to quit and times to hold on. The starters are a fickly group, they usually are of two sorts, the pitchers and the throwers. Any baseball player can tell you the difference between a pitcher and a thrower but really the same rules apply to them all. High strikeouts are good, low walks are better, and having multiple out pitches is key. If you have a pitcher in the who throws a fastball at 98 and a 89 mph slider, strikes out a lot of people with both pitches, hold on to him. He can still develop, but if you have a pitcher who throws a 98 mph fastball and 89 mph slider but can only get people out with his fastball, its time to cut him loose. Same goes for pitchers with four pitches and lower fastball speeds, multiple out pitches is a necessity. If they can get someone out with two pitches, hold on tight. Or you can send them to the bullpen.

Relief pitchers are the sort where you don’t need multiple pitches to be successful. A fastball can get a lot of people out, hell Mariano Rivera only ever throws one pitch and he is the greatest closer ever. With that said, low ball counts, that’s what you want. Relievers who walk batters don’t last long. Walks start late game rallies and walks are what dooms pitchers. If you have a relief prospect who has one out pitch and a low walk rate keep him. If you have a reliever that walks a lot of guys and doesn’t have that one pitch, cut him.

Pure hitters are simple, If you have a better guy at first base and DH who is going to be around for a while, trade him, you have no use for him. If he can’t hit a certain type of pitch, say for instance a curveball, get rid of him, and if he has no power to speak of, get rid of him. If he does hit for power, doesn’t have huge holes in his hitting ability, and there is nobody better keep him around until someone else knocks him out of his position, he might be one of your guys. Another important aspect of the pure hitter prospect comes into play if he doesn’t have a high batting average. I know, I know batting average doesn’t truly measure a hitters ability, but let me say this- if someone is hitting .250 and you are questioning whether to keep him around, he better be Adam Dunn and hit 40 home runs every year and walk enough to bring his OBP to the upper 300′s.

The all around hitter is probably the hardest to decipher. They may make spectacular catches in the outfield, and have great speed, but can’t hit a lick. Or they can field a great third base but never are going to hit more than 15 home runs in a season. The trick with these guys, is to look at them very narrow mindedly. If they have one thing that sticks out in a good way, keep them around and see if they figure out the rest, if they have one thing that sticks out like a sore thumb, its probably time to move on. If they neither look good doing something or bad doing something, keep them only if they don’t have someone they are keeping from moving up. Cut them if you have someone better in the wings.

Now, I know its not an obligation but I feel I have to do it anyway- Mariners prospects and whether to keep them or not. I will do this quickly and only say cut or keep. This way all you out there who don’t care about the Mariners at all can just stop reading.

Justin Smoak: Cut

Jesus Montero: Keep

Dustin Ackley: Keep

Kyle Seager: Keep

Hector Noesi: Cut

Brandon Maurer: Keep

Hultzen/Walker/Paxton: Keep

Nick Franklin: Keep

Carlos Peguero: Cut

Alex Liddi: Cut

Carlos Triunfel: Cut

Simple decisions I wish the Mariners would make.

–David Ringold

@dhringold

I frequently read about projections and computer simulations designed to predict how the New York Yankees or some other organization will do for the coming year, with no idea where the numbers come from.  Today, I’ll introduce a relatively simple estimator from our Statistics 341 class that will help shed some light onto the formulas and concepts employed in those projections.  What follows is the final project that I submitted along with good friend and teammate Mike Perrone regarding the Yankees 2012 averages.  The Stein estimator can be best described to those semi-familiar with sabermetrics as “regression to the mean.”  Still, it proves an interesting study in small samples.

Charles Stein introduced a paradox in 1955 for estimating the final batting averages of baseball players. The conventional thinking in statistics is that the best predictor for future events is previous events. However, in baseball, the initial small samples of at-bats prove to be a worse estimator for the season long average than Stein’s estimator. Charles Stein and W. James worked through the mathematics, and through a series of papers they proposed simple versions of the estimator. The James-Stein Estimator, or simply the Stein Estimator, proposes that through a small number of at bats, a better estimator for the true batting ability of an individual player is in a combination of his own performance and the team’s performance to that point.

In a game like baseball, where each event and play is seemingly independent of the other (given that only one player is at bat at a given time) using other players’ success rate to predict future success seems backwards. The basic principle driving the Stein Estimator is that the team average is more normalized toward the true ability of the individuals on the teams. That is, the early season luck factors or slumps are accounted for and understood with a wider lens.

As questioning statistics students, we decided to test this estimator against known final averages and test the validity of the claim that the Stein Estimator is better. We looked at both our own statistics while competing for the Division 3 Vassar College Brewers baseball team and how the New York Yankees fared last year. In manipulating the at bat sample sizes and “team average”, we were able to see how well the Stein estimator fared against initial averages across a variety of factors and found ourselves pursuing the best possible estimator.

Every so often, when I don’t have any other ideas, I revert back to the old “Who’s Awesome” template. I know it’s a bit of a cop out but it can still be a lot of fun, and let me briefly explain why I’m doing it. To tell you the truth, I haven’t been able to keep up with a ton of baseball lately. The college team that Sean and I play for clinched a playoff spot last night and for the past few weeks, all of our time and energy has been devoted to that push.

However, the MLB world has kept spinning and some people have emerged as slightly more awesome than others.

Who’s Awesome:

Clay Buchholz: Buchholz does not throw a spitter. This whole spit ball controversy is ridiculously contrived and completely bunk. What Buchholz does throw, however, is one of the nastiest 2-seam fastballs in baseball. The thing moves feet and it has helped him to a 6-0 record and 1.01 ERA. Awesome.

Manny Machado: In addition to doing his best Adrian Beltre impression defensively at 3rd base, Machado is hitting .354 with three bombs and three steals in his last 15 games. The Orioles are just as competitive this year as last and a lot of it has to do with Machado.

The Tigers: Detroit has the worst record of any first place team in the AL but they’ve won four straight and nine of their last 10. Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera made the Astros look like a bad Little League team over the weekend and the starting staff in general has been amazing, at one point striking out 10 or more in a record six straight games.

Who’s Not Awesome:

Josh Reddick: Reddick hit 32 bombs last season en route to a 16th place MVP finish. This season, he has just one and a dysmal .148 AVG. He has only 13 hits all year.

Injuries: Roy Halladay is headed to see a specialist about some shoulder pain. This could be the end for Roy who has pitched terrible of late thanks to diminished velo and shoulder problems dating back to last season. He’s simply not the same guy right now. Simultaneously, Hanley Ramirez spent exactly two days on the field before puling his hamstring and making a return trip to the DL. As I wrote here before, every injury is extra meaningful for the Dodgers as they are getting set for a grueling summer tracking down the defending champion Giants.

ESPN’s Playoff Percentage calculator: It somehow thinks the 1st place Giants have a 51.2% chance of making the playoffs while the second place (and much worse) Rockies have a 51.5% chance. Back to the drawing board guys.

-Max Frankel

Quick Programing Note: As we enter finals week and the playoffs, blogging has become a bit more difficult of late. Thank you for your patience as we do the best we can to keep as many balls up in the air as possible.

Atlanta Braves slugger Justin Upton won April handily, while an outfielder for the Colorado Rockies surprised everyone.  The young Upton clubbed more home runs than singles in the month and continued to make the rest of the baseball world question GM Kevin Towers’ decision to ostracize the kid. from the organization.  It’s no surprise that the Upton leads the world in my made up stat, but some of the other players atop the leaderboard may raise an eyebrow.  Dexter Fowler has been an offensive force in the early goings, the power surge reminiscent of Joe Mauer’s out-of-nowhere 28 home runs in 2009.

For a refresher, here’s the formula for Slugging Percentage Plus:

SPP = ((TB + SB + Walks + HBP- CS) / (PA))

The aim of SPP is to create a cross-skill set measurement for offensive production, by accounting for speed while still balancing the value of steals with the damage of caught stealings.  The dedicated reader will recall that the idea was born out of trying to quantify the greatness of Dee Gordon.  While SPP does not follow Gordon to AAA with the Dodgers organization, it has stayed relevant as a means to levelize the contributions of mashers like David Ortiz with the all around performance of a Nate McLouth or a Dexter Fowler.  For proof that the stat has some merit, check out the SPP standings from September of last year.

Your April leaderboard:

Thanks to my 300 level statistics class at Vassar, I’ve learned the wonders of the Export Data function on Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.  Thus, the quality and speed of my research should improve.  The above list represents the top 100 for all Major Leaguers who are on pace to qualify.  As I typically do, I’ll use this as a vehicle to discuss some of the surprises.

First, Dexter Fowler.  Fowler made a terrific catch last night at Dodger Stadium, which is what he is supposed to do.  But what is more exciting for Rockies fans are his eight home runs and .303 average.  Considering Fowler’s previous career high in homers was 13 last year, I imagine that the home run pace is a bit of a mirage, but this marks the second straight year that Fowler would hit over .300.

Nate McLouth is not a name that makes Braves fans very happy, but he’s found a new home in Baltimore.  The Oriole has stolen nine bags and sits 10th in our SPP standings.  So by this measure, Nate McLouth has been the 10th most valuable offensive contributor so far this season.  Let that simmer.

Andrew McCutchen and Mike Trout were SPP superstars last year, but are currently in the Pablo Sandoval range (70ish).  (Remember that this is a stat that values steals.)  Both have struggled to this point, though Trout hit a homerun yesterday.

Hopefully you like my little stat, and remember that steals do count for something.  I miss you Dee Gordon.

-Sean Morash

The Colorado Rockies have started out hot this year.  They’re 15-10 and are currently tied with the Diamondbacks for first place in the NL West.  For Rockies fans this is as good as it gets, especially with a front office that has been known to make a mistake or two.  The Rockies lineup is on fire so far, leading MLB in slugging percentage at .458 and hits 243, seven better than the Tiger’s 236.  They are also 4^th in the Majors in RBIs, HRs, Runs, OBP, and Stolen Bases.  Dexter Fowler has started the year sizzling, hitting .295 with 7 HRs and a .398 OBP out of the leadoff spot (half the time).  Along with Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gonzalez, and of course Tulo, the Rockies have a very solid top of the lineup.  But hitting has never been the issue for Colorado.

Their pitching is abysmal even by Triple A standards (hyperbole and amateur scouting back this claim).  While the Rockies currently sport an respectable team ERA of 3.79 (actually good enough for 12^th in the Bigs), their staff is resoundingly unimpressive.  Their ace, Jhoulys Chacin, had been hot, with a 1.46 ERA through four starts, but is currently on the DL with back issues.  Regardless of the start, Chacin has a career 3.55 ERA (4.43 last year) and is certainly not an Ace for any team with playoff aspirations.  The rest of their staff is nothing to brag about either:  Jorge De La Rosa, Juan Nicasio, Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, and the recently promoted Tyler Chatwood.   The top of the bullpen isn’t bad with Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle, and Rex Brothers, but the rest are nothing special.

The bottom line?  If the Rockies want to compete over the course of a 162 game season, they need to make some moves.

What makes the Rockies lineup great is not just the core, it is their incredible depth.  They have Eric Young Jr., Jordan Pacheco, and Yorvit Torrealba coming off the bench.  Pacheco is a .300 quality hitter and Young has been great table setter in the leadoff spot when he gets the opportunity to start.  To add to this depth, they also have Major League ready hitters waiting in the wings: Charlie Blackmon and Tyler Colvin (.290, 18 HR, 72 RBI with the big club last season).

With such an abundance of hitters–Colvin in particular–the Rockies should make a move for some starting pitching.  History–and Coors Field–tell us that the Rockies value bats over arms, and do not want to move one of their big names to obtain an ace.  That’s understandable, but what they could do is deal a quaility bench player or a package of minor leaguers, for a middle of the rotation guy.  There are a few options, in terms of a trade, that make sense for the Rockies, and aren’t too outlandish for their prospective partner.

The first possibility would be a straight up deal: Tyler Colvin for Ricky Nolasco.  Colvin, who should be starting at 1^st base right now for the Rockies, would be a great fit for the Miami Marlins.   He has pop in his bat, and could protect Stanton in the lineup better than Placido Polanco or Greg Dobbs.  Although the Marlins are really not trying to contend this year, Colvin fits with their (alleged) philosophy.  He is young and cheap, has upside, could immediately slide in behind Stanton, and would allow them to dump Nolasco’s $11.5 million salary.  This is assuming that, Jeffery Loria, eternal scumbag, is not purposely exposing Stanton in the lineup to keep his season totals low thereby lowering his arbitration value.  Either way, Miami would have to eat some of Nolasco’s paycheck and Loria is unlikely to agree to that.

One thing that Coors Field demands in ground ball pitching.  Philladelphia’s John Lannan, although he has struggled this year, still has a 58% groundball rate.  Another option would be Detroit’s Rick Porcello.  Porcello, a former first round pick, has been mismanaged by the Tigers and has been bumped down to the fifth starter/bullpen role.  Like Lannan, Porcello has a high groundball rate at 57.3%.  The Tigers may have completely given up on Porcello, but the Rockies would probably have to give up more than Tyler Colvin to get him, considering Detroit is also flush with offense.  Finally, Jon Niese.  With a 55.5% GB rate and solid peripherals, Niese is the best option for Colorado, but the Mets just signed him to a 5yr/$25.27 million deal and it would take significantly more than Colvin for them to consider a move.

The reality is that the Rockies cannot win with their current starting pitchers, and with a World Series quality lineup, this is the year to make a move for a quality arm.  The trades mentioned in this article are moves I hope Rockies General Manager Dan O’Dowd will consider.  But if they want to have serious a chance of competing this year they may have to deal the more highly touted Drew Pomeranz or Christian Friedrich–maybe even more.  But if that’s the case, so be it.  Without bolstering their pitching staff, the Rockies will be no more than a highly entertaining team that misses the playoffs.

-Brett Zaziski

Some teams start off hot, some start slow. Some teams come out slugging but fade into last place clubs, while others stumble out of the gate but eventually wind up on top. It’s nearly May, and while  there is undeniably a long way to go, we’re starting to get a feel for who really is good and who really is bad. Needless to say, there are some surprises. Here are three teams who started a little differently than we’d expected, but seem very likely to continue on their deviant paths.

Toronto Blue Jays:

The Blue Jays were projected to contend for the AL East crown, instead they are in its basement at 9-17. They’ve been riddled with injuries and under-performance, but they show no signs of snapping out of their funk anytime soon. They just got swept by the Yankees in the Bronx, RA Dickey is getting an MRI on his back today (and recently became one of only a handful of CY Young award winners to loose four games in April the year after they won the award), and Jose Reyes is still out until the All-Star break.

There are some things will normalize over time, but are still indicative of serious problems. Exhibit A: Melky Cabrera leads the team in batting average–with a .250 mark. That’s horrendous. Eventually someone will do better than 1-4 every day, but the fact that no one yet has is cause for serious concern. JP Arencibia leads the team in homers with eight. Not Jose Bautista, not Edwin Encarnacion (though I could have told you that was going to happen), JP Arencibia. Further, JA Happ is the team’s best pitcher, better in ERA and wins that Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, or Brandon Morrow. That kind of collective under-performance is startling but, as we saw on last year’s Boston Red Sox, when it starts to snowball it can be sustained through an entire season. Speaking of which…..

Boston Red Sox:

After last year’s disaster and some less than critically acclaimed winter moves, the Red Sox were the trendy pick for last in the AL East. As it sits now, they lead the division with an 18-7 record. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have regained their form under manager/old pitching coach John Farrell, and together they sit at 9-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA. Even John Lackey looks good. Jacoby Ellsbury is stealing bases, Dustin Pedroia is hitting .330, and new addition Mike Napoli is proving the naysayers wrong with more RBIs than games played.

Like Toronto, things in Boston will sort themselves out when we get out of Small Sample Size territory–it would be quite a shock if Buchholz finished the year with a 1.19 ERA. However, if the new culture in Boston is anything as strong as the old culture was, trends can be maintained. Last year it was a downward spiral, this year it’s Boston Strong. Daniel Nava isn’t going to keep hitting .310, but Will Middlebrooks won’t hit .202 either. With David Ortiz back in the lineup, the Sox can keep winning games all summer behind their good starting pitching.

Texas Rangers:

The Rangers were supposed to have a down year in 2013 with the loss of Josh Hamilton to division rival LAA, and with Oakland’s new found success. Instead, the Rangers are 16-9 and look poised to pull away from the pack. Yu Darvish has been lights out this season and OTB projected him as a potential Cy Young winner. Meanwhile, Lance Berkman and Ian Kinsler are going a long way to pick up the slack in Hamilton’s stead. The Rangers are winning games without the longball a little bit more, but they still have the power to bash with the best of them come the summer in Arlington. Moreover, they are currently winning games while their most potent offensive weapon, Adrian Beltre, is batting only .221. Once he gets going, watch out.

-Max Frankel

NBA backup center Jason Collins announced today in a Sports Illustrated story that he is gay.  The thoughtful article written by Collins starts: “I’m a 34-year-old NBA center. I’m black. And I’m gay.”  In a sports world that has recently celebrated Jackie Robinson’s breaking of the color barrier in Major League Baseball, Jason Collins appears ready to challenge the stereotype of the homosexual in sports.

To the casual NBA fan, Collins is a no-name.  Even to the biggest NBA fan, Collins’ playing career is little more than a footnote.  He’s been included in trades involving Kevin Love, Richard Jefferson, Stromile Swift, OJ Mayo, Mike Miller, and Jordan Crawford, but has never been an All-Star himself.  He lead the league in fouls committed once and has frequently filled his stat sheet with more fouls than points.  He is a 7-footer, useful as a big man, but without another real skill.

Now, Collins will forever be the first openly gay athlete to participate in one of the big four sports in America.

Wherever Collins ends up next season, and I’m not sure he’ll end up anywhere given his limited on-court contributions this year and the offcourt circus that’s sure to follow him now, it will be interesting.  I’m no NBA talent evaluator, but I’m not sure that Collins was going to have a job next season anyway.  Now that he’s out as gay, will the gay community rally behind their big man and scream that he’s been blacklisted because of his sexuality?  Will he be embraced by teammates?  I’m really not sure, but I feel compelled to write on the issue.

I’ve said it before and I’m confident that I will say it again: My favorite part of the blog is that writing forces me to share and explain how I really feel about an issue.  Whether that issue is as insignificant as when to hit an imaginary panic button, or as important as the subject I’m tackling now, the blog makes me define what I think.  It’s more than a means to share my thoughts, it is in itself a way to refine them.

Which brings me (admittedly circuitously) to the issue: What it means to have a gay athlete on your team–to share a locker room with a person who conceivably could be attracted to you.

Taking advantage of Mark Zuckerburg’s little website–a platform I rarely use to propagate a political agenda or even to share anything that could be deemed semi-serious–I posted on my personal facebook.  ”I’m not the most liberal guy I know, and I’m not anywhere near the most vocal gay rights proponent, but this needed to happen.”  And included a link to the SI article.  A friend of mine (really a friend of mine’s dad, but at some point in growing up with each other those generational lines become blurred) challenged me to apply the situation to my life.  I replied that if the individual were as mature and team-oriented as Jason Collins appears to be, then there would be no issue on my end.  As much as I want to believe in that statement and my convictions, the truth is that I really don’t know.

The truth is that every individual is different.  Every relationship is different.

I’m reminded of Lilly Jacobson.  The 2008 Vassar College baseball team had an unusual player on the roster: her name was Lilly, and she was a girl.  Some of the other contributors to this blog are infinitely more qualified to speak on the dynamics of her presence, but in speaking to them through the years, I’ve developed an appreciation for the maturity they showed in including her.  She was at every practice and was 1-4 with a walk on the year.  She belonged on the team.  I’m hopeful that our editor, a guy who played with her, will be able to bring some personal perspective to this parallel.

I’m reminded of my best friend’s girlfriends, or of girls that I’m close friends with.  The sexual tensions that are feared to pervade the locker room with a gay teammate are strikingly similar to this.  With an appropriate amount of maturity and trust, best friend’s girlfriends are off-limits in a way that they become another one of the boys.  Sure, one can admit that she looks good in a pair of yoga pants, but is it really that different than noticing a new bicep vein on a “bro” at the gym?  I’m not so sure.

I’m reminded of ”42″.  There’s a scene in the movie where a white player begs Jackie Robinson to shower with the rest of the team.  It’s a light hearted moment in the movie, but it underscores a more serious theme.  The issue of showering with different teammates is not something exclusive to the gay athlete.  You could even ask any middle schooler (straight or gay) about their comfort level with open showers after PE class.

I’m reminded of Brittany Griner.  The young lady who dominated women’s college basketball for four years and was the number 1 pick in the WNBA draft.  She came out last week and the sports world shrugged.  The young lady who is second all-time in points scored in NCAA women’s college basketball came out as gay and nobody batted an eye.

We’ve long awaited the coming out of a male, active athlete, participating on a team sport.  We wanted to know what would happen to the point that we kept asking other athletes for no real reason.  Torii Hunter made headlines this spring when he said it would be “difficult and uncomfortable” to have an openly gay teammate.  Similar statements have been made by players across many sports.  LSU running back Alfred Blue had this to say: “So if you gay, we look at you as a sissy.”

We can now stop asking the what if question.  And that’s enormously important.  We’ve got our social experiment, our Christopher Columbus leading the way into a new world.

But what of the Jason Collins? 

Will he be relegated to a separate locker room?  What will happen to the homoeroticism that is so prevalent (a teammate this year seriously advocated for more ass-slaps as a vehicle to an improved win-loss record) on any sports team that I’ve played with?  Are we seriously on the verge of segregating a locker room, officially or otherwise, in 2013?

Time will tell what will happen to Jason Collins and how that ripples throughout sports.  Gallup polls of approximately 120,000 Americans surveyed show that about 3% of us are gay, but that the perceived percentage is something closer to 15%.  Nobody knows the true percentage of gay athletes in professional sports, but now thanks to Collins the percentage is not zero.

Maybe Vassar’s ultra-liberal climate has changed me some.  Maybe it’s my curiosity as to how it will all work out.  Maybe it’s my belief that as a society we are accepting of individuals, if not their social groups as a whole.  Maybe it’s even the question of how one of my teams would handle the situation.  No matter what the cause, I cannot help but root for this Jason Collins experiment.

In closing (I feel compelled to write that as it forces me to conclude this article that could continue for another 1,000 words), congratulations seem in order.  First, for Jason Collins on the courage and conviction necessary to take this leap at a time when future employment is not guaranteed.  Second, for the gay community in accomplishing what seems like an inroad into one of the final, stalwart arenas of discrimination.  Finally, for the gay athletes struggling with the same lost feeling that Collins describes in his article–they finally have a role model.

So what do I think about an openly gay athlete on my team?  It would depend on the individual.  If they were as nice, as team oriented and as professional as Jason Collins promises to be, things could certainly work out.  (I’ve found that teammates will put up with indescribable mountains of shit if it helps the team.)  Players don’t have to agree with each other, they don’t have to like each other, and they don’t have to see each other naked.  They have to be able to work together and share a common goal.  Collins wants to win.  Whatever team he is on next year will undoubtedly share that goal.  If it were my team and the guy could help us win, there’s only one opinion to hold.

I’m not the most vocal gay rights activist out there.  I’m not even sure if I’m pro gay “marriage.”  (I use quotes because my problem with gay marriage lies largely in the association between the word marriage and the Church).  But the farce that there were no gays in professional sports needed to end.  I’m happy it finally has.

-Sean Morash

Stat of the Day:  I wrote 286 words after I wrote “in conclusion.”