Robinson Cano put on a show in last night’s homerun derby. Its a shame how big of a stadium Chase Field is because some of those balls that didn’t look to far were absolutely crushed. Multiple 470 foot homers, homers hit so far that ESPN’s distance tracker couldn’t find them, and the homers hit off his dad like he was still a kid made Cano not only the winner of this year’s home run derby but also the feel good story. Remember the travesty that was Josh Hamilton not “winning” the home run derby at Yankee Stadium (I’m going to go ahead and say that’s a must watch again type of clip… just click the link.)? Yeah, that didn’t happen last night. Cano hit them the farthest and the most and it was fun to watch even if spacious Chase Field seemed to make everything into a wall scraper. But, my question is, with Cano in the midst of a bit of bad year, what’s his outlook for the second half given his newfound status as homerun derby champion?
David Ortiz last year saw his OBP drop 30 points and OPS drop 100 from first half to second half and he clubbed 4 less home runs after winning the derby. Prince Fielder had a worse second half in 2009 after he won. Hitting some .32 points lower and an OPS about 100 points lower. After Justin Morneau’s “Win” in 2008, he had a batting average 56 points lower in the second half and knocked just 9 balls out of the park. Vlad the Impaler’s (I love that nickname) OBP was 30 points lower in the second half and he struck out twice as often in 2007. Ryan Howard bucks the trend in 2006 when after the all star break he hit 30 homeruns with a .509 OBP on his way to MVP. 2005: Bobby Abreu’s second half got ugly, hitting .260 with 6 home runs.
As you can see Home Run Derby Champions typically have a much worse second half of the year than first. The argument goes that swinging for the fences becomes entrenched in their psyche and these fantastic hitters turn themselves into easy outs. If we exclude Ryan Howard’s monster second half in 2006, home run derby champs have an OPS about 95 points lower in the second half in recent years (If it’s included, the difference is negligible). They see their average drop almost 20 points but, excluding Abreu’s miserable second half, hit more homers in the second half.
All this leads me to what exactly? Baseball’s version of the Madden Curse? No, its merely a warning to Cano and Yankees fans. If his OPS drops another 95 points we’re talking about a .768 OPS (which is still Chipper Jones, Starlin Castro, Brandon Phillips territory but a far cry from Albert Pujols, Mark Teixiera, Jay Bruce company). He, and the Yankees cannot afford a slump. Cano means so much to the Yankees as the fifth hitter in their lineup. He serves as a run producer, and hitter extraordinaire. With Alex Rodriguez out 4-6 weeks from recovery from knee surgery, Cano’s importance to the lineup becomes all the more vital.
By winning the home run derby, Cano has garnered national attention for that sweet swing, and family love. Cano was already a Yankee (with a big enough fan base to dwarf most countries), but now most of America seems to like this kid. I can’t see the pressure getting to him but, I can see a second half slump wherein he takes the Yankees down with him.
Stat of the Day: Cano’s 32 homers is tied for 3rd for most homeruns hit in a derby and Since 1991, an American League player has won the derby 15 times. Jose Bautista’s slugging percentage is 100 points higher than anyone else in the Majors.
-Sean Morash
