If the season ended today, the New York Yankees would win the AL Wild Card playoff 
berth by 6.5 games. They would be matched up against the Texas Rangers in the ALDS. Much has been made of the Yankees surprisingly good starting pitching this season but when it comes down to the three and four man playoff rotations that teams use in October, it becomes clear that New York’s rotation may pose a serious problem. Imagine you are Joe Girardi, manager of the Yankees. CC Sabathia is obviously your number one starter but who is your number 2? AJ Burnett? He’s 8-7 with an ERA north of 4. He leads the AL in walks and wild pitches (ahead of Tim Wakefield!). He’s not a good option. How about last year’s 18 game winner Phil Hughes? Well, he’s 1-2 and has spent a majority of the season on the DL. He’s certainly not reliable enough to be a playoff number 2 right now. How about Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garica, they’ve both been great this year? Well, Colon can’t cover first base without pulling something and for all his perceived “greatness” he’s only 6-6. He rarely gets past the sixth inning and his ERA has jumped more than half a point since the start of July. Garcia has been a serviceable starter so far but he’s a five, not a two. He’s only 1-3 against AL teams currently in first place with his only win coming April 13 against Texas. He’s not your guy, and neither is Ivan Nova, whose currently pitching for AAA Scranton/ Wilkes Barre.
Clearly the Yankees need outside help if they wish to contend in the playoffs. Ubaldo Jimenez is a pipe dream and would require too much of a prospect sacrifice anyway. Derek Lowe is old, overpaid and a former rival when he was with Boston, a perfect fit for the Yankees. Lowe has big game experience and a long successful resume, that was part of the reason the Braves gave him a four year-$60 mill deal before the 2009 season. Lowe certainly hasn’t pitched like the stud Atlanta thought they were getting. He’s was a combined 31-22 over the first 2 years of the deal with an ERA in the mid 4.3’s. He was reliable though, averaging 33.5 starts per season in that time.
This year, Lowe has been as ineffective as ever with a 6-7 record, an ERA of 4.37 and a WHIP of almost 1.4. He’s 38 years old and nearly a decade removed from his last All-Star appearance but I still think this trade would make sense for all parties involved. For Atlanta, starting pitching isn’t a problem. Tim Hudson is the ace, Jair Jurrjens is having a great season and Tommy Hanson is the real deal. Brandon Beachy is the guy that would have to step up if Lowe leaves but Atlanta seems to like him and from what I’ve seen he seems capable. Also, dumping Lowe’s huge salary which, by the way, is the highest on the team by nearly $6 million, would free up some money for use in free agency.
For New York, Lowe would provide a quality playoff option behind CC. Lowe is only 5-7 career in the post season but 4 of the losses came in only 2 series’ and he was 3-0 in 2004 with Boston on their way to the Championship. The Yankees need someone to replace the consistency of Andy Pettitte and Lowe might be that guy. He’s had at least 32 starts in every season since he became a full time starter in 2002, a consistency I’m sure Joe Girardi would find reassuring considering the fact that he has to hold his breadth every time Bartolo Colon lumbers towards first base. Lowe also has experience in the pressure cooker that is the AL East and knows how to pitch in Fenway Park, something every Yankee starter, including Sabathia, has struggled with this season.
Finally, Derek’s contract runs through the end of next season so the he could provide the Yankees a good option in the rotation and allow them to call up Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances only when their ready.
For this trade to work, the Yankees would need to take a vast majority of Lowe’s salary off Atlanta’s hands, I don’t think this will be a problem. The bigger sticking point would be the package of prospects that New York would have to fork over. This also isn’t a huge deal as the Yankees are one of the only teams in the Majors with both a successful big club and deep farm system. Atlanta could even kill two birds with one stone in this deal. The Braves are looking for a right-handed bat to compliment Brian McCann and supplement Chipper Jones and, if they’re willing to come down a step or two from the likes of BJ Upton and Hunter Pence, Andruw Jones might fit quite nicely. Jones is hitting only .204 but he only has 98 ABs and his sentimental value in Atlanta, where he broke in as a 19 year old and spent the first 12 years of his career, could excuse his low average.
Admittedly, I’m looking at this trade from a New York perspective but I’m not making this up. Atlanta has reportedly expressed interest in dealing Lowe and the Yankees are supposed to be one of only a couple of teams with the resources to pry Ubaldo Jimenez from Colorado if they had the requisite motivation.
I believe that the Yankees can’t win the World Series as presently constructed. At the very least they need a good, reliable starting pitcher. That’s a very hard thing to come by and I think they should jump on the chance to get Derek Lowe if they have the opportunity.
-Max Frankel
