Clayton Kershaw won the Cy Young last year and completely dominated the NL West while leading the league in ERA, wins, strikeouts, WHIP, and hits/9. He threw 230 innings and gave up only 174 hits. He was really quite unbelievable in that we all knew he was good, but not this good. In my bold predictions last year I said that Kershaw would start the All-Star game with a sub-1.50 ERA. He didn’t do that, but his second half numbers were ridiculous: starting with his start on July 7th, Clayton threw 110.2 innings and gave up 15 earned runs. Good for a 1.21 ERA. Read that again. 1.21 ERA over half the year. He had a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the previous two years, but he never got the national attention associated with a “top flight” starter. Enough about Kershaw… he’s established himself as one of the game’s top starters and is due a big payday one day. With the Kershaw model of good transforming to great over the course of a season, let’s look at 5 guys ready to take that next step.
Madison Bumgarner is a guy who made everyone’s head turn in the 2010 playoffs. He pitched 8 shutout, 3 hit innings in the World Series against a Texas lineup that scared it’s fair share of experienced starters. After that start, everyone in the baseball world knew Bumgarner would one day be good, really good. It just so happened that last year the Giants fell apart and the secondary guys on the team failed to get the attention they deserved. Ryan Vogelsong even stole some of that spotlight. Bumgarner had 8 k/9, and a 5.5 WAR last year and really seems poised to be the Cole Hamels to Tim Lincecum’s Roy Halladay and Matt Cain’s Cliff Lee.
Derek Holland made a similar such start to bring himself to national attention. The difference is his was Game 4 of the 2011 World Series. Holland pitched 8.1 innings, giving up no runs, two hits, and struck out 7. Holland has the stuff, the makeup and the drive to make this next leap. For the Rangers to be as good as they think they can be, Derek Holland needs to pitch very well. David Freese said facing Holland is like facing Jonny Venters, but for 8 innings. That’s high praise given Venters’ career ERA of 1.89 and Holland’s 4.73. Still, it’s his fourth year in the league (just like Kershaw) and I think he’s about to make that “Next Step”. It may soon be time for the 25 year old to join the likes of CC and Kershaw as the game’s best lefty.
Mat Latos was traded to the Cincinatti Reds and while moving out of the NL West may be damaging to the young righty’s numbers, it may help him move into that next echelon of starting pitcher. Latos burst onto the scene in 2010 hampered only by an inning count (184 is the number the Padres settled on) and earned Cy Young votes. It’s Latos’s fourth year in the Majors and moving to a contender may bump his work ethic, pitching prowess, and national attention to a level necessary for that Next Step. Latos’s 3.47 ERA last year is made all the more impressive when you consider his 1.96 in September. Also, from all accounts, his velocity was back up by midseason and I suspect he’ll have prepared more appropriately this offseason. The Red’s sure believe that Latos is ready to be the next Clayton Kershaw…. do you?
Daniel Hudson has been written about before on this site. Dan Hudson is dirty and nobody seems to pay attention. Possibly the most boneheaded move of White Sox GM Kenny Williams’ tenure (and trust me, that’s not an easy moniker to get) was sending Hudson to the desert for Edwin Jackson, who has since pitched on more teams than I can count. In 2010, Hudson went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA after the trade and he won 16 games with a 3.49 ERA in his first full season in the NL. (By the way, he also won the Silver Slugger.) Hudson was the definite number 2 for the D-backs last year behind Ian Kennedy and provided a rock solid one-two punch for the NL West Champs. Hudson was a workhorse, throwing 222 innings and throwing 3 complete games. He heads into 2012 having already seen all the stadiums and teams that were foreign to him last year and having worked out all the kinks with teammates, coaches, and trainers. He’s ready to rock. Hudson is only 24 years old and is prime candidate to really come into his own and make the leap this season.
Rickey Romero is already the ace of the Blue Jays’ staff. Last season he won 15 games and posted a 2.92 ERA in route to a 10th place Cy Young finish. Romero racked up 225 innings while surrendering only 176 hits, threw 4 complete games, and had 178 strikeouts. All of this while playing in baseball’s toughest division, one that routinely eats pitchers alive (see: Burnett, AJ). This season, Romero and the Jays are trying to make a run on the AL East and if Toronto hopes to be successful, their number 1 has to come up big. Romero is 27 and squarely in his pitching prime. He’s seen the hitters in the division and knows how to work them, for instance, Derek Jeter has only 2 hits in 21 official ABs against Romero. Rickey did have a BABIP of .242 last season, which might suggest a regression, or it might signify that he’s got nasty stuff and even when guys make contact it’s usually not good enough to be a hit. Watch out for a monster season out of RR Cool J.
-Sean Morash and Max Frankel
