It was announced today that Brett Myers will be the closer for the Houston Astros. It was a dumb move and again underscores the
Starter or Reliever?
baseball industry’s infatuation with overpaying and overvaluing a closer (Myers is due $10 Million this year). While I think it’s true that three toughest outs to get in a game are the last three, the closer moniker is vastly overused. In an offseason when Jonathon Papelbon earned himself $50 million and Ryan Madson is set to make $6 million this year with an $11 Million team option for 2013, the industry has been said to finally be getting the idea that relievers are overpayed. It’s simple math that you should pay a guy more to pitch 200 innings than 60 high leverage innings. I’ll spare you the math, WAR, and advanced statistics and instead offer a few career stories that show just how easy it is to be a major league reliever.
1. Ryan Madson: Madson was a starter for 5 years in the minor leagues. He had ERA’s of 4.85, 4.72, and 3.90 in that time. He then served as a long reliever of sorts for the Phillies in 2005 and 2004 (fairly successfully) before the Phils converted him back to a starter. He made 17 starts in 2006 and gave up 70 runs in 90 innings. Good for a 7.00 ERA as a starter. Back to the bullpen for Madson. There he becomes successful and is somehow good enough to reach the magical 30 save threshold and earn himself the big (ish) contract from this offseason.
2. Jonny Venters: Ask any Braves fan how good Venters has been the past two years and they will be unable to come up with words. He’s piched in 164 games while posting a 1.89 ERA. He’s one of the game’s best relievers. However, he’s a failed minor league starter. As recently as 2009, Venters made 17 starts in AAA and managed to post a 5.62 ERA. Venters was a failed minor league starter that converted to the bullpen and is now nasty.
3. Sean Marshall: Marshall found good success in the minors, but it did not convert to the Majors. In 2006 and 2007, when Marshall was trying to start for the Cubs, he managed a 4.83 ERA. Marshall was an average starter that really didn’t excite anyone. Now? He just agreed to a $17 million extension and has been the best reliever in terms of WAR over the past two years.
4. Sergio Santos: Here’s a trivia question for you: How many minor league innings did Sergio Santos pitch? We’ll start by saying he was once ranked the #37 prospect by Baseball America as a shortstop. Now, he’s a 30 save closer who strikes out a ton of guys. Santos pitched exactly 28.2 minor league innings with an 8.16 ERA. I promise.
5. Jason Motte: Motte is another converted position player (Catcher) who has come from pretty much nowhere to be a closer for the World Champions. He got the last out of the awesome 2011 season despite saving just 9 games during the regular season. He’s now the teams official closer and could be in line for one of those big paychecks if he has a big year.
Look the point is: there is no way of telling how good a given guy will fair in a relief role and there’s no sense in committing major money to a guy that has proven he can pitch when so many guys come out of nowhere and excel in the role. I’m not saying GMs should all be waiting for a guy to pop out of nowhere, but that they should be willing to make it work without a given CLOSER. The Cardinals proved it could work in 2011 as they had 8 different guys record a save.
If the Cardinals can find 8 different guys on their roster who can get a save during the regular season, then surely every other team can get by without overpaying and overvaluing a reliever. The position is too volatile to commit any kind of real money to and it’s far too unpredictable to demand a proven commodity. If I’m a GM, and I hope one day somebody would be dumb enough to let me, I’m getting a bunch of guys who throw really hard together and letting them sort it out. There’s only one Mariano Rivera and it’s time everyone stop paying people like they’re about to be the next Mo.
-Sean Morash
