Long gone are the days when the Devil Rays were bottom dwellers in the tough AL East. Here are the days when national sportswriters (Buster Olney) are picking the Tampa Bay Rays to finish first in the… uhm world. We at OTBB aren’t so confident in their roster’s talent and eventual finishing place. Let’s take a look at their season preview:
Projected Lineup
- Desmond Jennings (LF)
- B.J. Upton (CF)
- Evan Longoria (3B)
- Carlos Pena (1B)
- Luke Scott (DH)
- Ben Zobrist (2B)
- Matt Joyce (RF)
- Jose Molina (C)
- Sean Rodriguez (SS)
Projected Rotation:
- David Price
- James Shields
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Matt Moore
- Wade Davis
Strengths:
Depth: The Rays are going to win games this year solely because they are deeper throughout their active 25 man roster than any other team in the majors. Their lineup is solid, not great, and their rotation ranks in the top 5 in the majors regardless of how well Matt Moore pitches (and he’ll pitch well). The Rays had the best rotation ERA for any AL team in 2011 and look better heading into this year. Sam Fuld and Jeff Nieman would be starters on many other teams this year and look to be super subs on a team/manager that loves supersubs.
Joe Maddon: Maddon ranked first in our MLB Managerial Rankings and seems to be omniscient. How else do explain the fact that the Dan Johnson thing worked last year in Game 162. Also, that Kyle Farnsworth is their closer with alternate relief pitchers of Joel Peralta and J.P. Howell somehow just doesn’t phase me. Joe Maddon is good for a two win improvement over managers like Don Mattingly or Brad Mills (points to those of you who know who that is).
Farm System: Injuries happen during the course of every major league season and Tampa is in the best position of anyone to adapt to such a scenario. They can either trade out of their wealth of starting pitching or in their wealth of minor league talent. They’ve got 6 guys in Keith Law’s top 100 prospects and seem set for (A) a major trade to make the postseason and bring the World Series trophy to Tampa which seems improbable given their previous trading history (B) to be very good for a very long time.
To call the two Rays catchers dumpy doesn't make sense. However, to call Jose Molina large is necessary.
Weaknesses:
Jeff Keppinger: Keppinger has played on exactly one winning team in his entire 7 year career and even that team (last year’s Giants squad) had a losing record with Keppinger on the roster. Jeff seems like a good fit with the Rays with an ability to play second, short, or third and Joe Maddon’s propensity to shuffle the lineup. However, losing players are losing players: something Tim Tebow knows nothing about.
Catcher: I’m not at all excited about Jose Molina catching 80 games for the Rays this year, but they’ve shown in the past to value defense over hitting at the catcher position. Consider that Rays catchers hit .198 last year (2nd worst in the Majors) with the 5th worst wOBA.
Storylines:
Bullpen: I’ve already mentioned that Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, and Fernando Rodney and J.P. Howell make up the majority of a not-so-impressive bullpen, but does Joe Maddon continue to pull the strings and hold these guys together with the duct tape and chewing gum that he did last year? It’s interesting to note the desparity between their FIP ranking (24th) vs ERA ranking (16th) last year. That difference could come to bite the Rays and cost them a few runs and games this year.
Playoffs: Many are picking the Rays to make the playoffs, but we at Off The Bench aren’t all too confident in their prospects. Don’t get me wrong: I think they’ll be very good. However, there are 5 teams (Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers) that I think are very good competing for 3 spots with the new 10 team playoff system. Do the Rays make the moves they made in last years’ second half or lose out on the wild card spot that they won last year over the Red Sox and Angels?
Matt Moore and Desmond Jennings: Matt Moore has potentially the best pure stuff of anyone at the major league level right now. He’s projected to have impressive strikeout rates (ZiPS projection systems has him at 192). Meanwhile, fellow youngster Desmond Jennings has 20 home run 50 steal potential after last year’s impressive display. I’m not sure he’ll ever reach those lofty numbers, but the success of these two is greatly influential on the success of the Rays in 2012.
Prediction:
91-71, 3rd Place AL East, Wild Card #2. I’m very hesitant to have 3 teams win 90 games in the same division given how difficult that can be, but I truly believe the Rays have the pitching and depth to be a very successful regular season club. I’m not convinced their playoff rotation or bullpen will get them past that one game Wild Card Playoff, but it’s hard to vote against James Shields, Joe Maddon, David Price, Matt Moore, B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria.
Bold Predictions:
- David Price wins the Cy Young while striking out 254 and an ERA under 2.09.
- Fernando Rodney has an ERA of 2.01 while pitching 56 games and is the teams’ closer by June.
- The previous prediction is too bold. I take it back.
- Jeff Niemann and another prospect traded to the Cincinatti Reds for catching prospect Devin Mesoraco.
- Carlos Pena has a terrible, no-good, awful, Adam-Dunn-esque year. .165/.289/.368 with 8 homers.
Something Different:
Keep up with your current events. There’s rising issues in Syria.
Do you have overactive bladder?
Something for the ladies.
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The Pau Gasol for Rajon Rondo rumor makes too much sense from a Lakers perspective for David Stern to ever let it go through.
-Sean Morash
