Joe Madden is rapidly becoming regarded as baseball’s best manager. He turned a losing franchise into a perennial contender, even bringing them a World Series berth. He wins games he shouldn’t, always seems to go to the right player at the right time, and has made himself into the face of the franchise. Without a doubt, he is good at his job. Recently, Maddon has started some new trends by trying some new, unorthodox strategies. First, Maddon has employed the use of the infield shift extensively this year. The shift has been used sporadically since Ted Williams but mostly on power hitting lefties. Maddon, and the managers that have followed his lead, are now shifting on almost anybody. Joe has used the advanced charts and statistics at his disposal to move his fielders to the location most likely to get in the way of a batted ball. I’ve watched a lot of games this season with these unconventional shifts, it would be hard not to, and my sense is that although the shifts get some outs on balls that should normally be hits, a whole lot of weak grounders that normally wouldn’t be issues squeak through. I think it evens out over time.
As of the the last couple games, however, Maddon has been trying out something else. He’s penciled Carlos Pena, a power hitter with a low average but high on base percentage, into the leadoff spot in the lineup. I’m not sure how I feel about this. On the one hand, it seems to make sense. Pena’s OBP is pretty good, at .354, and he takes a ton of walks. Plus, when he’s on, he’s a monster with a ton of pop. What’s more, the Rays don’t really have any better options. They have a trillion men on the disabled list and no one in their starting lineup jumps out as a leadoff guy. With Evan Longoria out, the Rays need to do whatever they can to get their best hitters the most AB’s they can and if that means batting Pena 1st, so be it.
On the other hand, Pena hitting leadoff flies in the face of conventional baseball wisdom. Now, I’m all for mixing up the lineup, I don’t really think that the “conventional” method of structuring a lineup is necessarily the best but I also don’t really think that Pena is the right guy to hit first. His on base really isn’t that great, it’s certainly not high enough to be particularly noteworthy. He’s batting .215 and even though the Rays are scoring runs with him at the top, I think in the longer run it’s not the best idea. Now, if you wanted to put someone like David Wright or, in the Rays’ case, Evan Longoria, in the top spot, I could be talked into that. Those guys, Longo’s 2011 batting average not withstanding, get hits, get on base, and score runs. They can spark a lineup and make life hard on pitchers.
In my opinion, the three hitter in the lineup should be your best hitter, regardless of what type of hitter he is. If your best hitter is a power guy like Prince Fielder, fine. If he’s an average guy like Starlin Castro, fine. I think that your three hitter should be your best because he’ll most likely hit with runners on and, much more importantly, he’ll hit in the first inning and therefore more times in the game. That said, RBIs are an overrated stat. Its a lot harder and more important to get on base and score runs than it is to drive them in. Every major leaguer can score a runner, not every one can on, over, and in at a good clip. For that reason, I’m certainly not against putting a top hitter at the top of the order, not just a speedy guy.
We’ll see how Pena fares hitting leadoff but even if this experiment doesn’t work, I’m sure Joe Maddon will come up with some else worth writing about.
-Max Frankel
