Comeback Player of the Year is one of those awards they hand out early in the “awards week.” Its given to a player who’s had a good season the year immediately following a season in which they were injured, performed poorly, or didn’t play. Pervious winners have included Ken Griffey Jr. (who rebounded from an injury), Nomar Garciaparra (Injury), Cliff Lee (Poor Performance), and Jacoby Ellsbury (Injury).
The award is given out in both leagues but this season, its the AL race that is really interesting. It features two teammates who would be running away with it if it wasn’t for the other. One of these guys is a pitcher who has recovered his old dominance and the other is a hitter who has regained his immense power. Together, they have helped lead the Chicago White Sox to the top of the AL Central. The two players I’m alluding to are Jake Peavy and Adam Dunn.
The Case For Peavy: Jake Peavy was to 2007 what Justin Verlander is to 2012. Without question any conversation at that time about the best pitcher in baseball would have to include Jake. In 2007, Peavy won the Cy Young award behind 19-6 record, a 2.54 ERA and a league best 240 strikeouts in 223.1 innings. He also led the league in WHIP and K’s/9. He finished 7th in the NL MVP voting. He was good in 2008, posting another sub-3 ERA despite loosing 11 games and winning only 10.
In 2009, Peavy was traded mid-season to the White Sox. He was on the DL at the time. Peavy is an ultra competitive person who does everything 100% whether it is the smart thing to do or not and he was determined to show the White Sox why they got him. Jake came back from the DL late in 2009 and went 3-0 in 3 starts with a 1.35 ERA. That was great. 2010 was less great. 2011 wasn’t so hot either. Jake made only 35 starts over those 2 seasons, going 14-13 with an ERA above 4.5 in that period. Peavy constantly battled shoulder injuries and looked more like a has-been than ever before.
This year, he is finally healthy. Peavy is 6-2 with a 2.91 ERA and threw 2 consecutive complete games in April. He’s got his old fastball back and his power curve is as curvy as ever. Peavy has 78 k’s which is very good but not near the league leaders. That’s a good thing, its indicative of the fact that he knows how to pitch with his current stuff and get outs on ball put in play. Realistically, Peavy will be in the CY Young conversation if he can keep this up all year. His WAR is currently an impressive 3.5, tied for the big league lead among pitchers. In a normal season, I would say that he’s a shoe-in for the Comeback Player of the Year. Not this season.
The Case For Dunn: Unlike Peavy, Dunn did not get traded to the White Sox and he has not suffered an injury. In the off season before the 2011 season, Dunn signed a 4 year, $56 million deal with the White Sox to primarily play DH. At the time, he was coming off 2 consecutive seasons with a WAR better than 3 and 38 homers. In his 2 years in Washington, he hit pretty close to .260 each season and was an offensive force that no one wanted to face.
Last season, his first in Chicago was a disaster. And that’s putting it mildly. It was historically bad. In 2011, Dunn had 415 AB’s, a full seasons worth, without a doubt. He hit .159, really, he hit .159. He had 11 homers and 42 RBI. He had 11 homers, 16 doubles, and 39 singles the whole year. In a normal number of plate appearances. He was in a slump from Opening Day until the end of September. His 2011 WAR was -2.7. The White Sox would have been better off with Ronnie Cedeno.
This season, in the face of a lot of doubt and uncertainty (and more than a little concern from the White Sox brass), Dunn has been great. He leads the league in walks and home runs. (He also leads the league in strikeouts. As reported by us recently, a full 64% of Dunn’s PA’s end in walks, strikeouts, or home runs.) He has showcased the power that earned him his “Big Donkey” nickname and he’s brought back the “all or nothing” approach we’ve come to expect. Adam has 23 homers and only 19 singles this year. Only he could pull that off.
Dunn has 226 ABs and 101 Ks. He’s had only 4 games all season in which he didn’t strike out. He’s also got those 23 homers and that’s exactly what he’s being payed to do. Dunn really has been good this season but his Comeback Player candidacy is rooted as deeply in his unforgettably bad 2011 as it is in his impressively good 2012.
-Max Frankel
