The Atlanta Braves received bad news today after Brandon Beachy met with the dreaded Dr. James Andrews. The surgeon recommended the young
right hander undergo Tommy John surgery to repair a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament. While not the death sentence that the elbow surgery once was (or that shoulder surgery still is), Tommy John surgery carries a 12 month timetable and a grueling rehab regime. It’s really terrible news for the 25 year old who just started pitching full time in 2008. When he exited the game June 16th he was leading the majors in ERA (2.00) and BA against (.171), and was 5th in WHIP (0.96). If the season had ended then he was certainly in line to receive his share of Cy Young votes. There will doubtless be a clamoring amongst Braves fans that Beachy was hurried in his transition to a full time starter. I’m not sure the rise in innings were what did him in, but the fact remains: Brandon Beachy will not pitch in the major leagues for at least 365 days. So much for that, Atlanta
The Braves need to move on, and there is hope yet for the franchise criticized by many for not trading away some of its young pitching this past offseason. That move looks a lot better now as the once-strong major league staff has been wracked by the loss of Arodys Vizcaino (Tommy John), Jair Jurrjens (complete and utter incompetence: 9.37 ERA, 8/10 K/BB), Jonny Venters (no one really gets why cause this guy has electric stuff), and now Beachy.
Guessing what exactly the Braves will do is impossible. I’m sure that even they don’t know yet. But, there’s some options.
First is the up and down Jair Jurrjens: The 2011 All-Star hasn’t been himself. He appears to have some serious knee issues that have zapped his velocity and effectiveness. He’s spent much of the year in AAA and posted an ERA in the 5’s down there. Still, Manager Fredi Gonzalez said, “I’m curious to see him pitch.” As is the rest of the baseball world. This isn’t just some former Major League number four starter getting plugged in. Jurrjens has a 3.53 career ERA and in 2009 posted a 2.60 mark over a full season. The Braves are very hopeful that Jurrjens can regain that form and help drive their playoff push. Mr. Jurrjens starts on Friday.
The other possibilities the Braves will pursue are in-house. Tommy John success story Kris Medlen was sent down to AAA to get stretched out and was to replace either Randall Delgado or Mike Minor (both of whom were struggling at the time). Since then, those two have performed very well and Medlen was recalled to pitch in the ‘pen. The other option is top prospect Julio Teheran who impressed in an emergency start for a hobbling Tim Hudson earlier in the year. Teheran pitched four solid innings before getting in his own head a bit in the fifth and falling victim to relievers coughing up his inherited runs. Teheran is only 21, but as talented as any (he often gets likened to Pedro Martinez).
Should Mike Minor or Randall Delgado continue to perform as they have the past two or three weeks, I see the Braves shuffling things at the major league level and filling Beachy’s spot with one of the three aforementioned options and letting Teheran develope. Again: no need to trade or dip into the system with those two pitching well.
The other options are out there on the market. One has to figure the hapless cubs will start their fire sale on starting pitching at some point, and the Golden Eggs of Ryan Dempster or Matt Garza could fit nicely into almost any rotation. Either of those two veterans would slide beautifully into the Braves mix. I’m assuming the Braves would have to part with Delgado, Minor, or Teheran to get one of those guys, and I don’t think the Braves will do that. I just don’t see it. They haven’t in the past and they won’t now, especially with Jurrjens becoming a free agent at season’s end.
Bartolo Colon is another name that seems to make sense. The old guy throws alot of strikes and has a 4.22 ERA in the AL West. He’s not the exciting player that many really want, but it’s the type of cheap trade that could keep the Braves talented farm system intact–and he’s only due $2 Mil this year. Another interesting name is Francisco Liriano. Should the Twins decide to go that route with the soon-to-be free agent though, it will take minor league talent to seal a deal. And with the Liriano putting up Jurrjens numbers this year, he would surely need to turn it around in Minnesota for anyone to want the talented lefty, and that doesn’t seem to fit with the Braves’ pressing timeline.
What I see as more likely is a trade for a really good reliever in an attempt to shorten the need of quality, long outings out of their young starters. Brandon League will be a free agent at seasons end and a bullpen of Craig Kimbrel, Venters (who I expect to be just fine over the rest of the season), Eric O’Flaherty, Medlen, and League could be a ton of fun. And don’t forget about Peter Moylan who figures to be added to the Braves roster sometime in July. Those 6 arms could be all the Braves really need. Other, less good relievers could be available at the deadline as they always are. Luis Ayala has pitched very well and Jonothan Broxton was talked about as a potential trade target.
What the Braves do next really depends on how the Jurrjens/Teheran/Medlen/Delgado/Minor starts go over the next few weeks trying to fill the rotation after Tim Hudson (who’s not so healthy himself) and Tommy Hanson (whose average fastball velocity is down to 89.8 mph). The bottom line: all is not lost, and GM Frank Wren has options. There is still hope in Atlanta for magic in Chipper Jones’ final campaign.
-Sean Morash
