There is one question the Philadelphia Phillies have been trying to answer for the last few months: does it make more sense to pay Cole Hamels upwards of $130 million to pitch for them, or to trade him away and see what they can get. I’m here to answer that question for them.
Rumor has it that the Phillies are preparing a major offer for free agent to be Cole Hamels. Hamels, a lefty, is in the last year of his deal with the club and is a key piece in Philadelphia’s rotation. Slotting in behind Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, he is without a doubt the best number three starter in the league. Trading Hamels at the deadline was not even on the table for the Phils coming into this season, as they expected to contend for a division title. However, Philly has been awful this season (injuries are indeed a major factor) and currently sits in the NL East basement at 39-51. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have returned from injury but the team is so far back that GM Ruben Amaro is considering selling off assets like Hamels and Shane Victorino for prospects, improving the team’s future at the expense of the present. The Phillies current plan is to give Hamels a competitive offer that will make him seriously think, and if he rejects it, trade him. But, all this you know.
In my humble opinion, the Phillies are better off saving the boatloads of cash they are about to drop at Cole’s front door and dealing him right now. I understand that with the new draft pick compensation rules, Philly will perhaps get less for Hamels in a trade than they might have last season or in previous years, but I don’t care. Trading him is still the better move. Here’s why:
First, even without Hamels, the Phillies have a formidable rotation. Joe Blanton is terrible–and its honestly shocking that the Phillies still have him after all this time–but Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are two of the premier starters in the major leagues. Of course, Halladay has been hurt this season (he makes his first post-DL start tomorrow) and Lee can’t buy a win, but win-loss is a throw away stat anyhow.
The team is better off babying Hallday’s shoulder and being careful with Lee, giving some young guys a bunch of starts, and trying again next year. Further, Vance Worley has proven himself to be a more than capable starter and a solid number three. Thus, even without Hamels, the Phillies have a solid top three with which they can feel confident going into battle. That’s more than many contenders can say (I’m looking at you Tigers, Yankees, Rangers, Cardinals, Dodgers).
Second, any starting rotation sporting names like Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay up top is already pretty expensive. Lee is making $21.5 million this season and $25 mil in each of the next three. Halladay is raking in $20 million this year, next year, and (with the vesting option) probably the year after. Factor in Hamels’ $22 million or so from this theoretical new contract and the Phillies would be tying up nearly $65 million a season in 3 pitchers alone. Not to mention the fact that combined, the three will play less than 70 of the 162 games in a season. Price tags like those have the potential to cripple a team’s financial flexibility and really limit who the other 22 guys on the roster can be. Consider the $50 million they will be paying Jonathan Papelbon to throw about 260 innings over the next four years, and the cost of that theoretical pitching staff balloons to nearly $78 million for 4 guys. Even for a team with Philadelphia’s market, that’s a lot of money.
Yes, Cole Hamels is younger than all of those guys, but they’d still have to pay all four. I don’t think it’s tenable to devote that much money to three starting pitchers and a closer.
On top of all that, if you throw in the ludicrous contract awarded to Ryan Howard ($20 mil in 2013, $25 mil in 2014-16), in 2014 the Phillies could be paying five players a total of more than $102 million. Five players! That’s more than the payrolls 70% of the league’s 25 man rosters.
Third, the Phillies are bad. They were really good last year, but they are really bad this year. A rebuild is on the horizon. Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are pretty firmly entrenched, but Chase Utley missed most of the first half with a degenerative knee problem, ‘degenerative’ being the key word. (I wrote about that before the season, I think.) Shane Victorino will likely be gone after the season. Hunter Pence’s deal is done soon. Carlos Ruiz is a catcher in his 30’s. The Phillies are going to have to fill some major holes in the next few seasons. Even if they keep everybody, the current roster isn’t exactly winning.
Wouldn’t it be a whole lot easier for Philly to rebuild with that extra $130 or so million they could have spent on Cole Hamels? Not to mention the cache of prospects they would get in return?
The bottom line is this: (1) the Phillies have a really good starting rotation even without Hamels and he’s not nearly as integral to this team as he would be to other clubs; (2) the Phillies can’t afford to resign Hamels without crippling their future financial flexibility, and subsequently their ability to put a well-rounded team on the field going forward; (3) to win now, or in the future, the Phillies need a lot of work. One starting pitcher, no matter how good and no matter how solid he makes the rotation, is not going to fix what ails this team. The money that would go to Hamels could be better spent later, and the prospect returns they’d get could help them field a complete, competitive team for years to come.
-Max Frankel
