A few months ago, I wrote a scathing post about the Baltimore Orioles, who had just started the season stronger than anyone could have predicted. In it, I assured the baseball world that the O’s were bound to fade, return to traditional low-mediocrity, and leave their fans even more disheartened than seasons past when they would begin seasons in last place and stay there. I took a lot of flack from O’s fans for claiming, I thought innocuously, that many of the Orioles players had begun the season on the outer boundaries of a statistical bubble that was destined to burst, performing beyond what their career stats indicated they were capable of. I predicted that collective performance would likely decline and the team’s record would follow suit.
Here at Off The Bench, we go out on limbs with a certain regularity, and sometimes we’re wrong. Today is August 16, and the Baltimore Orioles are in line for the first AL Wild Card seed. Manager Buck Showalter has even said the team isn’t satisfied with the Wild Card, they’re gunning for the AL East crown. Needless to say, I was wrong.
But actually, I wasn’t that wrong. The statistical bubble did in fact burst, yet the record has somehow avoided the fallout. Showalter’s club is winning in a way no other team in the sport has been able to. Let’s examine:
The Orioles have no regular player hitting above Adam Jones’ .295, Matt Wieters paces the run production with just 60 RBI, and only two starters have scored more than 50 runs. Other than Jones, no one has 20 homers, double digit steals, or is slugging over .500.
So maybe it’s their fielding? Defense wins championships after all. Or not. Of the 30 MLB teams, Baltimore is dead last in fielding percentage. They’ve also had the most total chances, giving you a barometer for the pitching situation.
To call their starting pitching a mess would be generous. They’ve had a whopping 10 different players make starts this season, and the best results have come from rookie Wei-Yin Chen who leads the team in quality starts, wins, and strikeouts, and his good-not-great 3.70 trails just the injured Jason Hammel in ERA.
Despite the individual mediocrity, the most astonishing statistic regarding this 2012 Orioles team is their run differential: they’ve been outscored by 41 runs this season. For comparison, the Orioles are 64-53. The next best record for a team with a negative run differential is the 55-62 mark held by the last place Toronto Blue Jays–and their differential is only -11. The two teams with the most similar differentials are the Royals at -50 (51-65, 4th in the AL Central) and the Phillies with -39 (54-63, 4th in the NL East). According to the Pythagorean Win Percentage, this bunch should be 54-63, trying to fight their way out of the AL East cellar.
And yet here they are.
The secret to Baltimore’s success may well lie in the bullpen (if you don’t attribute it to interstellar alignment). The O’s are 22-6 in one run games, but only 16-20 in games decided by more than five runs. Jim Johnson, the team’s stellar closer, has 35 saves and a sparkling 1.07 WHIP. Out of nowhere set up man, Pedro Strop, has 20 holds, a WHIP of 1.08 and an ERA of 1.20, good for an impressive 3.0 WAR.
On offense, the core of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters is producing at a decent level and they are being admirably supplemented by Chris Davis, Wilson Betemit, Nate McLouth, Omar Quintanilla, and JJ Hardy. Plus, rookie stud Manny Machado has added a huge lift with his performance in the first six games of his career.
Basically, Buck Showalter is mixing and matching his way to a playoff berth. When the team loses, they lose big, but they are adept at shaking off major defeats and scratching and clawing their way to a close win the next day. Last night’s game was a perfect example of Orioles baseball, as they beat the Red Sox 5-3 despite getting out hit 7-6. They had one big inning to take the lead and the bullpen made it stick.
Now, should the Orioles make the playoffs, their starting pitching problem might come to a head, especially in a Wild Card playoff. Any O’s starter matched up with Tommy Milone of the A’s, I have to pick Oakland. The Rays are built for the post-season with the Price-Shields-Moore combo, and Price vs. Chen/Hammel looks good for Tampa. Whichever poison you pick–Verlander or Weaver–an Angles or Tigers matchup will be tough on any opponent.
But, if there are two things time has proven about baseball it’s these: 1) the team with the best pitching usually wins; but 2) the best team doesn’t win every day. That’s why we play 162. I hope the O’s make the playoffs so we can find out just how gritty they truly are.
-Max Frankel
