As we all know, Felix Hernandez stymied the Tampa Bay Rays last Wednesday. It was the sixth no-hitter and third perfect game of the year, and the third of those six no-hitters to be thrown at Safeco Field. Some people (although probably not enough to warrant this post) have been attributing the uptick in no-hitters to a “post-steroids boom.” Largely in the interest of King Felix’s honor, I decided to look at the numbers and see if those assertions hold any water.
In the Modern Era of baseball, 1901 through the present, there have been 235 no-hitters thrown. That averages out to 2.117 no hitters a year. In that time frame, 21 of those no-hitters were perfect games, about 9%. Since the end of the steroid era in 2005, there have been 23 no-hitters thrown (one of those by a combination of pitchers) and six perfect games, 26%. If we count this year as complete, that is eight seasons with an average of 2.875 no-hitters per year. In addition, there was only one season in which a no-hitter was not thrown, 2006, and two seasons in which six no-hitters were thrown, 2010 and 2012.
During the Steroid Era, 1995-2004, we saw 17 no-hitters (two by committee) and three perfect games. That 10-season average is 1.7 no-hitters per year, suggesting a causal link between steroid use and a decline in the frequency of no-hitters. However, if we dig deeper we find that issue still more complex, and I assert that in the grand scheme, the Steroid Era did not see a significant dearth of no-hitters, and the post-Steroid Era has not seen an over-abundance thereof.
If we look at baseball’s Deadball Era, 1901-1920, we find that 49 no-hitters (one by comittee) and two perfect games were thrown in those twenty years. There were two seasons, 1909 and 1913, that lacked a no-hitter, and three seasons, 1908, 1915 and 1917, in which six no-hitters were thrown. This averages out to 2.45 no-hitters per year, and if we divide the 20 years in half we get 2.0 per year in the first 10 years, and 2.9 in the second 10.
If we take another stretch of 10 years, 1985-1994, we find 22 no-hitters (three by comittee) and three perfect games, an average of 2.5 no-hitters per year. However, there is something very interesting about this 10-year span if we divide it into two five year stretches. The first, 1990-1994, saw an absurd number of no-hitters: 4.2 a year with two perfect games, and all three of the combined no-hitters from the 10 year span came in those first five years. Two straight years in that span, 1990 and 1991, accounted for a whopping seven no-hitters each, tying each other for the record number in a single year.
Some might say that we haven’t seen a huge upswing in no-hitters since the end of the steroid era, but they might still say that we saw a significant downswing in no-hitters during the Steroid Era. However I believe that is incorrect as well. From 1931-1940 we only saw 10 no-hitters, or one no-hitter per year for a 10 year span. With only 1938 having 3 no-hitters in the same year, two of which were pitched by the great Johnny Vander Meer.
What these numbers say is simple: no-hitters and perfect games are rare and random occurrences. As with many things in baseball–and life–we see upswings and downswings from year to year, but over time things even out. Baseball, much like the economy moves in cycles and has many variables that cannot be predicted. The number of no-hitters this season is not unprecedented, nor is the total count for this era.
We did see the a decrease in the average number of no-hitters during per year during the Steroid Era, and we did see an increase in that average during the “post-steroid boom,” but we have yet to see any numbers that suggest a significant change during either era. Neither era had the fewest or most no-hitters of any 10 year span, and statistically speaking, the no-hitter rates of the Steroid Era and the Post-Steroid Era are too similar to the average of the entire Modern Era to establish any definitive causal links. Reporters want to create controversy, myself included. It’s important to take into account that when people claim something based on numbers, there are usually more ways to interpret the data.
Just remember what Mark Twain said: there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
-David Ringold
Stat of the Day: Three perfect games in a season are the most ever, as are three no-hitters in the same stadium.
