The 2012 Atlanta Braves season closed with a bang–or rather a pop, shatter, and fizz–as beer cans and soda cups littered the turf at Turner Field. The umpires ducked the flying debris, and Chipper Jones ducked his head back into the clubhouse for the final time as a player.
Braves fans can find solace in a very good core of players returning that could and should be better going into the 2013 season. They also boast new financial freedom and cheap young pitching that should be around for some time. Shortly after the season came to an end, Braves GM Frank Wren said the team would be after “premium talent.” Before we get into what that might be, a look at what talent will return is in order.
Assuming the Braves pick up the relatively cheap options on Tim Hudson ($9 Million) and Paul Maholm ($6.5 Million) and give arbitration raises to Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen (who figure to make about $2.5 Million respectively), the Opening Day rotation will be both strong and affordable. The last member of that rotation is Mike Minor, who is not arb-eligible just yet and remains very, very cheap for his production.
As for the bullpen, Craig Kimbrel will be back for cents on the dollar in terms of output, as will Jonny Venters, a first time arb-guy who figures to make about $1 MM via the process. Eric O’Flaherty could command up to $4 Million according to the arbiters. Cory Gearrin, Luis Avilan, and Cristhian Martinez all figure into the bullpen equation cheaply as well. So too could Peter Moylan, depending on the direction Frank Wren wishes to go, and if the Braves want a Chad Durbin or something similar in their bullpen again (which is probably a really good idea) that could cost about $4 Million. So that’s about $10-$11 Million depending on the Chad-Durbin-type.
The lineup is where things aren’t as clear going forward. Chipper Jones’ $14 Million salary is gone, but so too is his production. One has to assume that Martin Prado will move in and play third base as his bat will be more valuable in the infield since productive left fielders seem to grow on trees these days. The guess here is that the Braves pick up Brian McCann’s $12 Million option for next year and will bring back clubhouse favorite David Ross. Freeman will be at first, Andrelton Simmons at short, Jason Heyward in right, and Dan Uggla’s $13 Million forearms will be at second. Which makes left field and center (Michael Bourn is set to be a free agent and Scott Boras is his representation) the two positions of need for the Braves.
So the equation is relatively simple:
Braves need LF and CF.
Braves have SP and IF.
Braves have about $22 Million to spend.
The available free agent LF class includes Melky Cabrera (not happening in Atlanta after this), Josh Hamilton (far too expensive unless he’s playing both LF and CF), Ryan Ludwick (Cincinnati holds an option) and Delmon Young. Young is the most interesting name on the list, but I’m not sure how the Braves would feel about having the immobile-at-27 Delmon Young patrolling LF given their recent trend of favoring athletic, defensively competent position players. After examining further, Young makes no sense. His career high in homers is 21 and he’s generally not as good as one would think. Nick Swisher can play LF, and I like his energy there. Still, I see the Braves checking in on some trades because that’s their usual modus operandi.
The Braves have long been in pursuit of right handed power (see Uggla, Dan) to help balance 
the lefty-heavy lineup (Heyward, Freeman, McCann are all left handed). Josh Willingham is the most perfect fit for the Braves, but he will cost significantly in return. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Frank Wren part with a prized pitching prospect (Randall Delgado or Julio Teheran) to get the Twins’ left fielder who just hit 35 bombs.
Alfonso Soriano wouldn’t make much sense for the Braves though I’m sure we’ll hear rumors again, especially after the two clubs pulled off the Paul Maholm trade this summer. There’s been rumors of Adam LaRoche signing long-term in Washington which seems to keep Mike Morse in a bit of a flex position. I doubt the intra-division trade would transpire, but Morse would be a crazy-good fit for Atlanta’s LF spot. I also have to think the Braves will call about Yoenis Cespedes (be told “No”), Corey Hart (who makes a lot of sense and could be the most likely guy the Braves get), and Justin Upton.
The available free agent CF class includes Josh Hamilton (again, his salary will essentially wipe out the Braves’ LF and CF budget), BJ Upton (who the Braves have been linked to more than once), Shane Victorino (who would be a fantastic addition), Cody Ross (who has a career 0.00 ERA), Angel Pagan (sneaky-good) and Michael Bourn. Any of these options make sense for the Braves, but also make sense to varying degrees for the Rangers, Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Red Sox, and Cubs. In any case, there figures to be some major activity on the Atlanta phone lines in regards to one, or some, of these guys.
One has to remember that with the payroll constraints under which the Braves operate, frugality is important. The $10 MM freed up by getting Derek Lowe off the books will be nice in signing one of these outfielders. Shane Victorino is the guy I most want as a Braves fan. His energy and Turner Field numbers would be nice to have in a Braves uniform. He’s hit .333 at Turner Field with 6 bombs, 5 triples, and 6 doubles in just 60 at bats. As for what he could make the next few years, the jury is really out. A 4-year, $36 Million deal may be in his future, but his struggles in 2012 at age 30 (he hit just .245 with a .316 OBP) may scare teams away from that longer commitment. Angel Pagan at the same price may make more sense given his production in 2012 (.288 with a .338 OBP) and what he’s done when given a chance to play everyday. Consider that in his three years as a full time player with the Mets and Giants, he has hit .290, .262, .288, and stolen a combined 98 bases. He’s a sneaky-good leadoff guy, and would provide a near-seamless transition from the Bourn era.
If I had it my way–and we’ll just say I do–here’s my 2012 Opening Day lineup for the Braves:
- Shane Victorino CF
- Martin Prado 3B
- Jason Heyward RF
- Josh Willingham LF
- Freddie Freeman 1B
- Brian McCann C
- Dan Uggla 2B
- Adrelton Simmons SS
It should be noted that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Angel Pagan, or Corey Hart, or some combination therein as substitutes for the new CF and LF positions.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: Nick Swisher has 12 career stolen bases.
