The Cleveland Indians finished an abysmal 68-94 last season, good for fourth place in the AL Central and bad enough to warrant a managerial change. Manny Acta is out and former world champion Terry Francona is in. It is a new day in the Cleveland (at least in a baseball sense anyway) but this winter’s frantic transactions have left many in the baseball world puzzled. The Indians made a splashy trade to land young star Trevor Bauer and made two major free agent acquisitions in Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. They spent a lot of money on some shorter term projects. However, most analysts (including me) still think that they are a few years from really competing. It seems like the Indians did a lot of work to ensure that they are very mediocre–no better, no worse. In any event, it’ll be a very interesting season.
Projected Lineup:
- Michael Bourn Cf
- Michael Brantley Lf
- Asdrubal Cabrera Ss
- Nick Swisher 1b
- Carlos Santana C
- Mark Reynolds DH
- Jason Kipnis 2b
- Lonnie Chisenhall 3b
- Drew Stubbs Rf
The Rotation:
- Justin Masterson
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Brett Meyers
- Zach McAllister
- Trevor Bauer
Strengths:
Outfield defense: This is a little one but let’s get it out of the way early. All three of the Indians’ outfielders, Bourn, Brantley, and Stubbs, are quality centerfielders. All three can run, and out there together not a lot will be falling in at The Jake (RIP).
Swisher, Bourn, and Santana: These three guys are really, really good. Swisher is an upper tier hitter (not worth what they paid him, though) and Bourn is a top notch speed and leadoff guy (also, overpaid however). Santana is a future star and will be among the best catchers in baseball in few years. Viewed in a vacuum these are three really good players to have on your team.
Francona: Whatever deficiencies this team might have as a whole, it’s a pretty solid club and you can rest assured that Terry Francona will get everything possible out of it. Cleveland is where he wants to be and he’s going to work hard to turn this team into a contender. The Indians could be that surprising playoff team come October.
Kipnis: Jason Kipnis is a really good young second basemen. Watch out. Last year he hit only .257 with 14 homers but he’ll be better this season and will continue to improve over time.
Weaknesses:
Rotation: The number one thing this team lacks is starting pitching, specifically, starting pitching consistency. In 2011, Justin Masterson’s ERA was 3.21, last season it was almsot two full points higher and there is little evidence that his great season wasn’t a fluke. Jimenez has proven that he can be as unhittable as anyone ever, but he’s never been able to recapture that magic and has mostly been a disappointment. Meyers is an average big league pitcher at this point who spent most of last season in the bullpen, and Bauer hasn’t proven anything and was dumped by Arizona–despite great promise–amidst attitude concerns and an organizational shift.
Timing: Swisher, Reynolds, and Bourn are all in their 30’s and are ready to win now. It makes no sense to get any of those guys–especially Swisher and Bourn for all that money–if the present wasn’t the primary focus. Both are poised for rapid decline from a pretty high and very current peak. On the other hand, Santana, Kipnis, and Bauer are future guys. They could all be great but will need a couple more seasons at least before they seriously contend. For when was this roster built? It almost seems like the left hand didn’t know what the right hand was doing. This disconnect could be disastrous.
Middle of the Order: Swisher was best suited for the six spot he had in New York. Cabrera isn’t as good as everyone thinks. Santana isn’t there yet. The Indians lack that true masher in the heart of the lineup to compete with Cabrera, Fielder, Konerko, Dunn, Hosmer, Butler, etc in their own division alone.
Storylines:
What is the deal with Jimenez? Will he ever right the ship?
Are Swisher and Bourn worth the money?
What will the Indians get from Bauer in his first full big league season?
Will Drew Stubbs finally reach his potential?
Prediction:
78-84, 4th place, AL Central. Ah, the Central. The Indians will be better but still not good. The pitching will let them down again as the lack of a true ace will continue to be a drag. The Royals, White Sox, and Tigers are all still better than them.
Bold Predictions:
- Jason Kipnis hits .290
- Jimenez goes 11-12 with a 4.10 ERA
- Bauer goes 11-12 with a 4.10 ERA
- Francona misses the Red Sox who, despite eating and drinking and collapsing too much, won games
-Max Frankel
