The 2013 season will be a strange one for Atlanta Braves fans. With Chipper Jones no longer manning third base and hitting in the three hole, the organization had some work to do to fill the void. And work they did. The newly acquired brothers Upton promise to bring a fresh spark to the outfield, while Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco will platoon at third, trying to provide some of the production lost with the departed future Hall of Famer. After the infield fly call (and the total ineptitude of that inning in a Wild Card game that shouldn’t have meant as much as it did) derailed the 2012 season, the Braves appear ready to make the playoffs again, but look to avoid the beast that is the one game Wild Card playoff.
Projected Lineup:
- Andrelton Simmons (SS)
- Jason Heyward (RF)
- Justin Upton (LF)
- Freddie Freeman (1B)
- Brian McCann (C)
- BJ Upton (CF)
- Dan Uggla (2B)
- Chris Johnson/Juan Francisco (3B)
Projected Rotation:
- Tim Hudson
- Kris Medlen
- Mike Minor
- Paul Maholm
- Julio Teheran
Strengths:
Lineup: This lineup features a guy who has hit 209 home runs in his seven year career (30 annually) in the seventh spot. Uggla’s .220 average certainly accounts for his low position in the lineup, but the point remains: this lineup could be very good. With projected improvements from Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and Freddie Freeman–each of whom has yet to reach their peak–a happy and motivated BJ Upton, and six time All-Star Brian McCann’s return from an injury riddled 2012, this team could be very dangerous.
Bullpen: With All-World closer Craig Kimbrel dominating the 9th, the team has effectively shortened games to 8 innings. Ponder on some of his ridiculous numbers from last year: He faced 231 batters and struck out 116 of them–over half (half!). He had an 0.65 WHIP, and he faced 71 batters with runners on base and allowed a hit to just four of them. With runners in scoring position, he faced 29 batters and gave up a hit to just one. Of his last 128 outs, 84 of them came via the K. Setup man Eric O’Flaherty followed up his 0.98 ERA in 2011 with a 1.73 last year. Jonny Venters “struggled” last year–to the tune of a 3.22 ERA. And joining the trio will be former Angels closer Jordan Walden. The flamethrowing right hander boasts a 10.8 K/9 number. The bullpen will be amongst the best in the game once again after finishing with the second best ERA in the Majors last year.
Outfield: The trio of Jason Heyward, BJ Upton, and Justin Upton is in the argument for the best in baseball. The combination of speed and power possessed by all three is noteworthy. Realistic projections for the trio peg them at 85 homers and 80 steals. Further, the tantalizing talent of each suggests that MVP votes may be in order should everything come together.
Weaknesses:
Unproven Rotation: Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Julio Teheran and the new Paul Maholm are all unproven. Are Mike Minor and Kris Medlen’s incredible second halves the real deal? When the Braves acquired Paul Maholm at the trade deadline last year, I was a bit confused. The Paul Maholm that I remembered was the one that posted a 5.10 ERA with the Pirates in 2010. But, over the past two seasons Maholm has posted a combined ERA of 3.67 and increased him K/9 total to 7.7 in a Braves uniform. Julio Teheran was once one of the game’s top pitching prospects but his 2012 can be described as a trying endeavor (5.08 ERA in AAA). Things are looking up in Spring ball though as Teheran has dazzled to the tune of a 1.04 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in 26 IP. Which versions of Paul Maholm and Julio Teheran can Braves fans expect?
Strikeouts: The Braves had an affinity for the strikeout last year and with the offseason additions of Justin and BJ Upton, that figures to continue. Dan Uggla (150 K’s annually), BJ Upton (160 K’s each of the past three years), Justin Upton (120 K’s annually) and Jason Heyward (150 K’s in 2012) will, betwixt them, rack up an entire team’s worth of Ks. A lineup full of guys like this might frustrate purists of the sport who appreciate the groundball that moves runners over. (But what do they know, anyway?)
Organizational Depth: The Braves were once filthy rich with young pitching prospects, but that pipeline appears to have slowed a bit because of trades. Randall Delgado was a part of the Justin Upton deal and Arodys Viscaino was flipped for Paul Maholm. There are still some glimmers though. J.R. Graham touched 100 mph off the mound a few times this spring and has come on strong in the past calendar year. Sean Gilmartin appears to be another guy in the Mike Minor mold. Meanwhile catching prospect Christian Bethancourt is probably the best defensive backstop prospect in the game, but has struggled to hit. Other prospects? Not so much.
Storylines:
How does Brian McCann do in his contract year? When will he be fully healthy from offseason shoulder surgery? Do the Braves make a long term commitment to the 29 year old catcher at year’s end?
Can Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, or BJ Upton put together an MVP-type season?
Will the Braves unproven rotation be as good as they’ve flashed? What if one of them gets hurt?
What’s with this news of an elbow strain and Jonny Venters?
The Braves appear to have $8-10 Million in the payroll as yet unused. How will spend that money?
Prediction:
93-69, 2nd Place, NL East. The Braves are in the same division as potentially the best team in baseball and their pitching is much more of a question mark than it has been in recent years. The offense is more promising, but if they haven’t fully gotten it yet, Atlanta fans will soon realize the true value that Chipper brought to this franchise for so long.
Bold Predictions:
- Jason Heyward finishes higher than Justin Upton, Bryce Harper, and Giancarlo Stanton in MVP voting
- Kris Medlen has 14 pitcher wins and a 1.22 WHIP
- Jordan Walden has 3+ saves
- Julio Teheran has a sub-3.00 ERA through his first 100 IP of the year
- Juan Francisco hits 19 homers.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: The only player on the Braves with more than 10 years of service time is Tim Hudson with 13.
