The Tampa Bay Rays have become the model franchise for any organization looking to compete in the unfair world of Major League baseball. The Rays missed out on the playoffs last year after reaching October in each of the previous two years despite their criminally poorly financed ballclub. With the ownership unlikely to change, and the Rays organization locked into their contract at Tropicana Field for the forseeable future, the payroll is likely to remain at or around the bottom of the league. That said, they’ve managed to find ways to hang in with the big guns in recent years, and 2013 figures to be more of the same. Can this group of young studs and veteran castoffs–many of whom are getting their last chance in the Majors–find the magic and win in a tough AL East?
Projected Lineup:
- Desmond Jennings (CF)
- Sam Fuld (LF)
- Evan Longoria (3B)
- Ben Zobrist (RF)
- Matt Joyce (DH)
- Yunel Escobar (SS)
- James Loney (1B)
- Kelly Johnson (2B)
- Jose Molina (C)
The Rotation
- David Price
- Matt Moore
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Alex Cobb
- Roberto Hernandez (aka Fausto Carmona)
Strengths:
Versatility: Projecting a lineup for the Rays felt really silly. They used 122 different batting orders in 2007, 115 in ’08, 123 in ’09, 129 in 2010, and 130 in 2011. That kept on in 2012, and can be expected to continue in 2013. The Rays take advantage of platoon matchups as well as any organization, and have the positional versatility to make that happen. Ben Zobrist can play all over the field, as can Sean Rodriguez, and Kelly Johnson came up as an outfielder so expect him to see some time there. This is a team that will be able to play the hot hand all year.
Joe Maddon: Maddon topped our managerial rankings last year and came in fifth this year. He’s as good as there is in the game both at keeping his team lose and ready to play, and at the strategic components of managing. Maddon is a difference maker at a position that usually gets overlooked.
David Price, et al: David Price won the Cy Young last year, and he could be even better this year with an improved curveball. That proposition is scary for opposing hitters. However, it’s not just David Price in the rotation; Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb are all very good. Moore’s second half last year (3.01 ERA and 9.2 K/9 rate) showed glimpses of why he was mentioned in the same breath as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Hellickson has posted consecutive years of sub-3.10 ERA in the AL East and Alex Cobb has really impressed this preseason. The 5th starter spot is more of a question mark than it has been in the past with Jeff Niemann losing some velocity and the departures of James Shields and Wade Davis. Chris Archer is waiting in the wings, but it looks like Roberto Hernandez is getting the nod to begin the year. Herandez basically lost 2012 after he was found to be playing under an assumed name, but before that he was good in spurts (3.06 ERA in 2007, 3.68 in 2010).
Bullpen: Fernando Rodney and his bow and arrow are back. He managed to post a 0.60 ERA last year. Just think about that for a minute. Joining him are Joel Peralta and Kyle Farnsworth. Jake McGee will be the go-to lefty coming off a 1.95 ERA.
Weaknesses:
Lineup: At some point this year, Luke Scott, James Loney, Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, and Jose Molina will make up the 5-9 run in the batting order and the Rays will again struggle to produce runs. They finished 10th in the AL in that department last year, and that was with BJ Upton and Carlos Pena. It really looks like this lineup will be Evan Longoria vs the world.
Catcher: Jose Molina will only worsen their hitting woes. Meanwhile, Jose Lobaton also can’t hit.
Payroll: This is always the Achilles heel of the organization, but I expect that it will be a big deal as the year progresses. They simply don’t have the pieces or money to acquire players that they need before the trade deadline. Also, because of the way they have to operate (thanks to payroll constrictions), the big league club will be worse to begin the year. Arbitration and salary structure of the collective bargaining agreement incentivize leaving the best players in the minors longer. In this case, Wil Myers would certainly help the Rays at the outset of the year, but to keep him cheaper for longer, Myers will start in Durham.
Storylines:
When does Wil Myers become the everyday Right Fielder? How good will he be in the Majors?
Can the lineup score enough runs?
Can David Price & Co. be as good as they need to be?
Is Yunel Escobar going to offend the gays again? Or make some other bonehead decision?
Does anyone show up to the games even if the Rays are in 1st all year?
Prediction:
89-73, 2nd Place, AL East. They Rays are not quite as good as they were last year when they won 90 games. Their Pythagorean record suggested they should have won 95 games, but this is not the same team. Luckily, the rest of the AL East is in shambles and 2nd place behind the Blue Jays seems their destiny.
Bold Predictions:
- Yunel Escobar hits over .300 with 18 homers and plays great defense
- Evan Longoria plays over 140 games and smacks 33.8 homers. Yeah 33.8
- David Price finishes the season with a better ERA and more wins than the Cy Young winner
- Sam Fuld has over 400 plate appearances.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: 27 straight for the Miami Heat was really impressive.
