For fans, April is a month to make the first of innumerable rash judgements concerning the fortitude of their favorite franchise. It’s a time to bask in the promise of time tested heroes, and learn the names on the back of the high numbered jerseys. It’s also a time for some fanbases to lose all hope (Miami), panic about the long term implications of a big offseason signing (Los Angeles, both), or decide that the new guy in town is, in fact, Superman (Atlanta). It’s a time for impressions, first or otherwise.
For players, it’s a bit more complicated. April is a month of adjustments, timing, conditioning, and more adjustments. It’s also a time when some guys struggle. Hitting a baseball is hard; it takes practice. It’s understandably more difficult to do when you haven’t done it for a while, and the small sample size makes a .150 average look a lot worse than it really is. But when do the April struggles that guys like Mark Teixiera go through every year become truly concerning? When does it foreshadow something like Adam Dunn’s 2011 season?
The simple answer is June, but it varies by player. Many factors can play into early struggles: age, contract status, supporting cast–there’s no simple formula for when to hit the panic button.
With that in mind, a look at some of the guys struggling right now reveals archetypes of every April. Adam Dunn was at one point guaranteed for 38-40 homers annually. Then he moved to Chicago. In 2011, manager Ozzie Guillen never hit the panic button and the Big Donkey struggled through nearly 500 plate appearances managing a -2.8 WAR. Things were different then. Dunn had never posted a negative oWAR and was just signed to a 4-year, $56 Million deal. He was Chicago’s guy for the next half decade, through sickness and in health. The marriage was off on rocky terms, but credit the White Sox with sticking with Dunn. He rewarded them with a good 2012. But now, 2013 is looking bad again. Dunn is sporting a .151 OBP and just got out of the longest hitless streak of his career (0-31). I haven’t been watching the games and don’t know the nature of Dunn’s at bats, but if I’m the White Sox, I don’t want to go through 2011 again. Dunn is still hitting fourth and fifth, but it is time to move him lower in the order. He strikes out a bunch, but everybody knows that. The White Sox are paying him to hit homers and get on base. Right now, he’s not getting on base. The panic button for Adam Dunn should already be out of the box, unwrapped on manager Robin Ventura’s desk.
Josh Hamilton is one of the streakier players in baseball. Last May, he hit nine home runs in a six game stretch. He also hit .177 last July. It’s just the player that he is. The Angels moved him to the five spot in the lineup Monday night and much grumbling ensued when he was left in the on-deck circle at the final out. However, the move mixed things up and Hamilton had four hits, raising his average nearly 50 points. He’ll get hot soon enough and everything will be A-Ok. No need to have a panic button with a proven All-World talent known to struggle for weeks on end.
Jason Heyward is 23 years old and one of the physical freaks in baseball. He is, however, known to periodically misplace his swing. His 2011 was a struggle and he wrapped it up with just a .227 BA. He rebounded and got MVP votes last year but in 49 games beginning August 28th of last season, Heyward has hit .197 (36-for-183) with five homers, 18 RBIs, 15 walks, 34 strikeouts, three stolen bases, a .267 OBP, and .333 slugging percentage. That’s rough. Heyward got an appendectomy last night might actually be good for his production. Braves fans have begun to wonder when the undeniable potential will be realized? Does greatness require a change of scenery as it apparently did for Justin Upton? There’s no need for a panic button with Heyward because even when he’s not really hitting, he does other things to help the team win. However, Heyward needs to turn it around for the Braves to make the playoffs.
It’s no secret that I’m a big Emilio Bonifacio fan. Sadly though, my man is struggling. He hasn’t stolen a base and is hitting just .185. The explanation for Bonifacio’s sudden inability to run is not immediately obvious, but the Blue Jays appear to have soured on him altogether. He’s lost playing time even, with Jose Reyes out. That seems backwards. Bonifacio’s value lies in his ability to play different positions and steal bags. He’s not a bopper and not a guy that anyone expects to hit .300. However, when given a chance to play a bit, Bonifacio should hit .250 and steal his share of bags, probably 30 or 40 plus. That isn’t happening and I think it’s bad news for the long term outlook in Toronto. Bonifacio is an important player whether he seems it or not. He provides energy and the ability to fill almost any positions. Giving up on him now is dumb, but it appears the Canadians are more prone to panic than we stalwarts at OTB.
Then there’s Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton made no attempts to hide his displeasure with the Marlins organization this offseason, and he’s now off to a horrifically slow start. He looked bad in the World Baseball Classic and has recorded exactly one (1) RBI going into last night’s game. Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t even come with a panic button, but even if he did, there’s no need to think about it. He’s going to hit because he’s too good not to, but don’t be surprised if this is a down year altogether because of his off field frustrations.
We’ve looked at a young streaky slugger in Stanton, and an established streaky slugger in Hamilton. In Heyward and Dunn we’ve seen two guys who have scuffled in the past scuffling again. We’ve also seen a guy who makes a living on versatility and speed, playing one position and not running at all in Bonafacio. My first instinct is to recoil, to go with my first impression. But what I kept telling myself is that it’s way too early to worry about any of this. Yes, maybe Dunn has a down year, maybe Stanton is fed up. But it’s still April! It’s just too early to tell.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: Eddie Foster had 6325 plate appearances and hit six home runs. That was baseball before Babe Ruth.
