Before I start this post, which I have been excited about for a while now, I have to give credit for its underlying premise where credit is due. This idea for this post was hatched thanks to a Peter Gammons tweet from last week, so thank you Mr. Gammons.
There a great many struggling starters in the major leagues. These guys have excellent stuff, you have to to start at that level, but for one reason or another haven’t been able to put everything together and become the reliable workhorses their teams had envisioned. For some of these pitchers, the ceiling is a top of the rotation ace, for others, it back end filler with a little something extra. In every case, though, they haven’t been able to meet expectations.
On the other side of the equation, we have closers. Closers are, for the most part, failed starters. Jon Papelbon, Jim Johnson, Houston Street, even Mariano Rivera. These are all guys who at one point or another were supposed to be starters but couldn’t quite make it. The idea of this post is that there are a great many more subpar starters who would make fantastic late inning relievers. Jon Papelbon is making more than $13 million a season to throw one inning a game. You’re telling me there aren’t a whole bunch of cheaper struggling starters who couldn’t do what he does? Let’s take a look at five specifics:
Jonathan Sanchez: Sanchez is a 30 year old lefty currently in the Pirates organization. This season, in 5 games and 4 starts, he has a 0-3 record and an ERA over 11. Sanchez made his name in 2 ways. First, he threw a no-hitter in 2009 while with the Giants and second, he was traded to the Royals in exchange for a then-clean Melky Cabrera in a deal that was doomed for both sides. Cabrera missed 50 games and the playoffs and Sanchez stunk it up to a tune of 1-6 with a 7.76 ERA for KC. Sanchez has electric stuff, he can run his fastball up to 96 mph and has a devastating slider when he can control it. However, Sanchez’s fastball has averaged just a little over 90 mph in his career. AH HA! He’s been pacing himself because he knew he’d have to throw a large number of inning per game. Like every starter in baseball (see Verlander, Justin) Sanchez doesn’t throw with 100% effort every pitch. He can’t as a starter. As a closer? Oh yeah. I bet we’d see some very different results for Sanchez if his fastball averaged about 95 than about 90. Let the guy throw one inning at a time and see what happens.
Edwin Jackson: Unlike Sanchez, Jackson has a steady job. He’s already thrown 100 innings this season for the Cubs and compiled 6 wins. Problem is, he also has 10 losses and a ERA over 5.10. Jackson has bounced from team to team and has proved to be a pretty good innings eater, he’s thrown about 200 innings with a sub 4 ERA twice. However, while Jackson has been an unremarkable journeyman starter, he could be an exceptional reliever. Like Sanchez, Jackson has about a 6 mph differnce between his max fastball and his average. The difference is that Jackson’s average is 94 mph and he can run it up there close to 100 mph if he really wants. Couple that with his slider, his best secondary pitch, which he can throw as hard as 93 and Edwin Jackson is looking at a Kimbrel-esque repertoire. (sort of).
Mike Pelfrey: Pelfrey is the name that Gammons had on his original tweet which gave me this idea. This season, his first in the AL, Pelfrey is 4-7 with a 5.55 ERA. Pelfrey was supposed to be an Ace when he came up with the Mets. Together with Johan Santana, he was destined to give the Metropolitans a tough 1-2 punch. Instead, Pelfrey struggled. He was however, decent in 2008 and quite good in 2009 and he has proven he can get big league hitters out. His K/9 has been falling over the last few season and that may portend some poor results going forward but, with a switch to the 1 inning focus of a closer, he may be able to turn that trend around. He’s primarily a sinker guy and if he can keep that pitch in the low to mid 90’s and then run a fastball up at around 97 and mix in a slider for good measure, he’d be a tough back end guy for the twins.
Josh Johnson: Johnson, a former ERA champ, has struggled to stay healthy of late. He’s in his first season with the Toronto after many years with the Marlins and things aren’t going so hot. He’s 1-5 with a a 5.16 ERA in only 66 innings. He’s got a disappointing -.5 WAR which has contributed to the Blue Jays surprisingly bad season. Johnson can’t handle the innings workload required of a starter, certainly not at a high level anymore, but he may be able to regain some of his productivity out of the bullpen. In the last 2 seasons, since his Tommy John surgery, Johnson’s velocity has been a bit diminished but he can still bust it up there north of 95 mph from time to time. He’s primarily a fastball, slider, curve guy and that could work well out of the bullpen.
Dan Hudson: Ok, this one is a little different. Hudson hasn’t pitched this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery and so probably wouldn’t be a great candidate for an immediate switch. However, those of you that follow the blog know that I have kind of a thing about Hudson. I don’t know hat it is but I think he’s great. I’ve seen him dominate and I think he can again. Maybe the bullpen would be a good way to keep his innings load low as he works his way back from TJ. I just think he’d be nasty as a one inning guy.
So, what’s the moral of the story? Well, I think it’s that instead of trading prospects and assuming huge contracts on rental relievers at the July deadline, teams in need of bullpen help should look at mediocre starters, either in their own system or as cheap gets from somebody else, and try to see the all star caliber closers lurking within.
-Max Frankel
