Coming into this season, the Nationals were the odds on favorites in the National League. In fact, OTBB selected the Nats to win the World Series. Needless to say, Washington has done a good job of making all the prognosticators look like idiots and are currently 48-52, 8 games out of first in the NL East after losing five straight, and eight of their last 10. It’s officially time to call this team bad, or at the very least mediocre, which is a long way from great, which is what they were supposed to be.
I could spend some time lamenting the disappointment of the NL East, projected to finally wrest the crown of toughest division in baseball away from its AL counterpart; or waxing depressive about how I was really looking forward to the Nats becoming the new team to beat in the NL. And honestly, I’m tempted to. I was excited about this Nats team. As a Yankee fan with what looked like an uncharacteristically dismal summer headed my way, the Nationals seemed like a worthy distraction. Instead, though, we’re left here looking at what went wrong and thinking about how to fix it.
Let’s start with the offense because it has been so obviously disappointing. Coming into the season, this was supposed to be a strong point for this club. Bryce Harper was entering his first full season, Ian Desmond was coming off a strong 2012, Jayson Werth was finally healthy, Ryan Zimmerman was healthier than usual, Adam Laroche was back and they finally had a leadoff hitter in new centerfielder Denard Span. They were set at literally every position, to the point that Tyler Moore, a starting quality bat, was relegated to the bench and Anthony Rendon, an up and coming prospect, was stuck in the minors.
What happened? Well, as of today, the Nats rank 28th in runs, 27th in batting average, 28th in on base percentage, and 22nd in slugging. There have been some injuries, most notably to Harper, Werth, and Danny Espinosa, but mostly the issue is underperformance.
The highest batting average on the team that qualifies for the batting title is Ian Desmond’s .275 mark. That’s pitiful. This team was supposed to get on, over, and in, and do it at one of the fastest clips in the NL. Instead they don’t have a single starter getting a hit even three out of every 10 trips to the plate. Denard Span, the guy at the top of the lineup who’s supposed to set the table for the big hitters, has a .319 OBP.
There is no player in the startling (pun intended) lineup having what could even be considered an above average season. Let’s take a quick look at where the Nationals stand in relation to some of the league leaders in the more conventional hitting categories. The NL leader in batting average is hitting .335. Highest Nat? As I said, Desmond at .275. The highest homer total in the NL is 26. The highest Nat is Desmond with 15. The highest stolen base total in the NL is 34. Desmond leads the team with 11. The highest OBP is .434. For the Nats it’sRyan Zimmerman’s .344. The highest WAR in the NL is 5.4, for Washington it’s Desmond’s 2.5.
Why am I taking this fairly unconventional look at the Nationals in comparison to league leaders? Well, it’s more for what you don’t see than what you do. Ryan Zimmerman is a $100 million player and he’s hitting .268 with 11 homers and 51 RBIs, which is about the same level of production the Reds get from Todd Frazier and only slightly more than the Rockies get from rookie Nolan Arenado. Zimmerman is supposed to be a star. He isn’t playing like it.
Adam Laroche is paid like a league leader in homers and RBIs. He’s got 14 and 44, less than half of his total’s last year with only slightly more than 60 games to play.
What about Bryce Harper? Harper is a superstar, right? One of the best young players ever. What about him? Well, he’s an incredible player for his age but he’s not among the league’s best right now. He’s flashy and popular but a deserving All-Star? He’s hitting .264 with 13 homers and 6 steals. His WAR is good for 7th among left fielders–which is good, but doesn’t make him a superstar. Or even on the level of Dominic Brown and Starling Marte, really. (I know he’s been hurt, but this is rant, right?)
The bottom line offensively is this: Ian Desmond is having a great season. If everyone else around him was performing up to their standard, Desmond would fill in nicely as the six hitter and the Nats would be rolling. Instead, the team can’t score and Desmond is a man on an island. Now, let’s look at pitching.
The starting rotation for the Nats has been strong this season. Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmerman have been characteristically good, the highest ERA among the three is Zimmerman’s impressive 3.01. Their records aren’t very good, but that’s a terrible indication of performance anyway. All three have been excellent and Gio has propelled himself towards the elite status conversation this season. Problem is, they’ve gotten no help from the back of the rotation. Ross Detweiler and Dan Haren have been bad. Both have been back on forth to the DL, and without listing any other stats, all I’ll say about Haren is his WAR is -1.3. They’ve been giving the team a chance to lose every fifth day rather than a chance to win.
In the bullpen, new closer Rafael Soriano has been fine but not spectacular in the 9th inning. Old closer Drew Storen leads the team in appearances but has seriously struggled with an ERA above 4.80. Tyler Clippard has been characteristically brilliant, if a little misused. He has a 1.85 ERA and a WHIP under 0.90. Craig Stammen has been decent too, and Ferenando Abad has proved a nice surprise.
Basically, the pitching hasn’t been as spectacular as it could have been but it isn’t the source of this team’s woes.
Ok, so what to do about all this? It’s a tricky question because it isn’t like the Nationals are missing big pieces. Just the opposite, they may have the most complete 25 man roster in baseball. The issue is underperformance. The biggest thing the Nats can and should do is wait and hope. Harper will continue to improve and the numbers for Zimmerman, Span, Werth, Laroche and company should normalize, though maybe not this season.
In the short term and more concretely, the Nationals should decide if they want to wait out 2013 or shoot for 2014. They could just sit on their hands and hope that they’re players start playing. Its honestly not such a bad strategy, if any team is suited for a late season run, it’s the Nationals.
Otherwise, they could start moving pieces in preperation for next season. They could deal Drew Storen this week. Hopefully, they could get a decent return for a former closer in a particularly thin trade market and he would be a good piece to move for the good of next season. Further, they should consider moving Adam Laroche. Teams like the Yankees would jump at the opportunity to add some serious power and a good first base glove and Laroche is under contract for a couple more seasons so if Washington takes on some of his salary they might be able to turn him into the back of the rotation starter they apparently need.
If they moved Laroche, they could free up first base for Zimmerman, cutting down his throws (which are horrible) and maybe helping keep that shoulder healthy enough to hit better. Zimmerman moving across the diamond would allow Rendon, to move from second back to his natural position at third. That way, the Nats could pursue a real second basemen this winter (it isn’t Espinosa). Also Tyler Moore would get some more playing time in this scenario.
All that is pretty unlikely however. What’s way more probable, and appropriate, is that the Nats do nothing. This 2013 has been an incredibly disappointing season in large part because the long term plan is in place. All the major components are there–they just aren’t doing what they should. Washington needs to admit that 2013 was a waste and stay the course for 2014 and beyond. There are some small changes that need to be made, mainly in the back of the rotation but I still believe that this team as constructed has the talent to be the best in the game. It’s time they start showing it.
-Max Frankel
