On Monday night, Juan Uribe further solidified what I told a Giants fan three years ago: Uribe is the scariest guy in that lineup, despite what the numbers might say. I echoed that statement as the Dodgers and Braves readied for their 2013 NLDS matchup, and I echo it still. I just didn’t trust the guy–and still don’t. His wild swings and untamed eye conspire to form a frightening wild card in the 6-spot of the order. While this Dodgers team features an even wilder swing and less-tamed eye in the form of the Wild Horse, Yasiel Puig, my fears from 2010 manifested Monday night. After Puig laced a double, Uribe failed to get his bunt down in the 8th inning of a one-run game. My heart raced. These were the two scariest guys that my Braves had faced in the past two postseasons combined in one moment. Add in that David Carpenter, a relative unknown even for the most diehard of Braves fans, was on the mound. Anything could happen. Anything, as it turned out, was a 2-2 breaking ball that hung over the middle of the plate and Uribe knocked it deep into the left field seats. The Dodgers went on to win and at once my fears were realized and my dreams dashed.
Now, if you’re a big baseball fan, you’ve probably seen an article or three chastising Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez for failing to bring in Craig Kimbrel with the tying run on second base. Kimbrel pitched just once in the four games, while five other Braves relievers threw more pitches than the all-world closer. The entire Kimbrel-should-have-started-the-8th-inning argument is predicated on the idea that Kimbrel is markedly better than the guy who pitched it instead. So we have to ask: is that the case? The quick answer is “duh.” But it’s important to realize Carpenter was no slouch. The right hander’s 2013 looked like this: 1.78 ERA, 74 strikeouts in 65.2 innings. The guys over at baseballsolutions (a great site for the sabermetrically inclined) had this to say:
[Carpenter] allows 79% of league average runs (all numbers I am quoting are my projections), which is equivalent to a little better than a league average closer. Then again, Kimbrel is other-wordly. He is Mo before Mo was Mo. He is Eck when Eck was unhittable. He is as unhittable as I think a human pitcher can be. I have him as 47.25% of league average, which is more than a half run better than Clayton Kershaw, the best starter in the world.
Whatever stat he is quoting there, it’s been obvious through the past three years that Craig Kimbrel is special. He deserved to pitch. Baseball deserved to see him pitch, Game 5 and the maligned Freddy Garcia deserved to see his team beat the Clayton Kershaw-led Dodgers. It didn’t happen. But, was Kimbrel not pitching a grave mismanagement by the Braves or just one of the great injustices of the postseason? We’ll get there soon.
Over in the ALDS matchup between the Tigers and A’s, Detroit’s Jim Leyland found himself into a similar 8th inning conundrum. Facing elimination, Leyland called upon Cy Young favorite Max Scherzer in the 7th inning of a tie game. Scherzer allowed a run, the Tigers scored two in their half, and Scherzer returned to the hill for a second frame. He promptly walked a batter and allowed a double. The potential winning run was on second base.
Jim Leyland opted to leave his best pitcher in the game (he’d been previously quoted as “uncomfortable” using his closer, Joaquin Benoit, for more than one inning). Leyland called for an intentional walk to load the bases and Scherzer wriggled out of the inning unscathed.
Scherzer’s escape and Leyland’s decision, should the Tigers go on to win the World Series, will go down in postseason lore as an example of just how bad the Tigers wanted it; of how close they were to elimination even in the Division Series. Realistically, Scherzer’s dramatic routine required as much luck as skill. The complexion of the game would have changed entirely if Josh Reddick had taken a 59 foot, 3-2 changeup, that bounced before it reached the catcher. He didn’t, so here we are.
Jim Leyland trusted Max Scherzer to pitch himself out of his own jam. Fredi Gonzalez opted to keep his best for the 9th inning (or the final four outs, depending on the situation). One team won while the other makes plans for the offseason.
We can’t be too quick to condemn the Braves’ skipper. Gonzalez’ hands were somewhat tied given Kimbrel’s inning limit. Only four times in the regular season has Kimbrel been used for more than one inning. And only twice since he has taken over as full-time closer has Kimbrel successfully converted a save of more than one inning. The casual fan would be wrong to think that simply because Kimbrel closed out Game 2 by getting 4 outs, it’s something he’s comfortable doing. Things and circumstances change in the postseason, but experience is experience.
The fact is, Leyland looked good (and Gonzalez equally bad) because of the outcome. But that’s baseball life, ain’t it.
Most managers would fair better with the option of a potential Cy Young winner available in their bullpen. Freddi Gonzalez has one(“potential”), he’s just not comfortable letting him go more than 4 outs. The Braves have plans to make the playoffs again next year, and in a similar situation, it might behoove them to get Kimbrel experience at getting 6 outs. The regular season is 162 games. Managers have time to experiment.
Conventional, rigid bullpen management is constantly being criticized by those of us who think we’re smart–but let’s not pretend that managing is that easy. Not everybody has a Max Scherzer available in the bullpen.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: According to Justin Havins with ESPN Stats & Info, all batters have the grand total of one hit off Gerrit Cole’s offspeed stuff since the beginning of September. That’s a batting average of .017 — one hit in 232 offspeed pitches.
