On Wednesday, the Boston Red Sox successfully won their third World Series title in the last 10 years. In doing so, the organization, still woozy from the ride, stumbled off of the unlikeliest of roller coasters. The ride picked up speed with the Francona-led dominance of early 2011, plummeted to the chicken-and-beer collapse of that September (which spawned posts like this), corkscrewed through Bobby Valentine’s ill-fated 2012, made a hairpin turn at the mega-deal that put the Dodgers on the map, and finally flipped upside down and coasted to a halt at an entirely unpredictable championship. It was a ride for the ages.
Any story you read that says baseball is worse off for the Red Sox winning, that it is transitioning into a period where the same teams win every year, is ignoring the difficulties and disarray that has characterized this organization over the past 25 months. They’ve been through three managers, scandal, failed contracts totaling around $300 million, and more days and payroll lost to injury than any other team in baseball. They’ve been through much the same stuff that Andy Dufresne crawled through to escape Shawshank prison and I hope the organization enjoys it’s parties and parades in the days to come.
That disjointed preamble aside, it is now free agent season and Off The Bench is embarking to bring each team a preview of what to expect as open signing dawns on Tuesday. Each day, we’ll be posting a preview of a division and a final Bold Predictions post will follow, hopefully before any of the big pieces ink their deals. This is not intended to be a full offseason preview as the hot stove has yet to heat up and we have no real sense of the market. Names like David Price, Mark Trumbo, and Peter Bourjos will capture our attention in the coming months, but for now we’ll set the table for what each team might be looking for as free agency hits.
Houston Astros: Available Budget: $40+ MM
This is an interesting organization for a bunch of reasons. Their highest paid player going into this year was Bud Norris and he’s now with the Orioles. Second highest, Carlos Pena, finished up as a Royal. Third Highest: Jose Veras, Tigers. It’s an organization that in the past has spent around $65-70 MM on payroll, but is not hiding it’s intention of starting over by building through the farm system and playing its young players. I doubt the decision makers will deviate from that plan as it’s a multi-year program to get the Astros back to respectability.
Still, they will be wise and pick from the scrap heap available relievers who could provide value around the trade deadline. I would not expect the industry’s top bullpen arms to be interested in Houston, but an aging veteran looking to follow the Jose Veras model could be a good sign. I’m thinking Frank Francisco, Kyle Farnsworth, or Luis Ayala could take a chance at upping their notoriety by pitching well for the Astros. They also desperately need starting pitching and I’m not convinced that any of their young arms are good Major Leaguers. Astros’ ownership has the money, if they opt to use it, that could lure some free agents, but the opportunity to play on a 100-loss team is less than appetizing. It’s simply a bad year to be an Astros fan.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Avail. Budget: $15 MM?
Owner Arte Moreno has made it public knowledge that he wants to win a championship by purchasing the likes of Vernon Wells and Albert Pujols. He lost out on Zack Greinke last offseason and it really cost the Angels dearly. They currently have $131 MM on the books for the 2014 season excluding raises due to their arbitration eligible players (Bourjos, Trumbo, Frieri, and Jepsen). They’re also going to pay a ridiculous $18.2 million dollars for Vernon Wells to play for the Yankees. Yes, eighteen point two. If they thought they had the money to pay Zack Greinke last offseason, I’m sure the accounting department can conjure some more to pursue somebody this offseason.
As for who the Angels could go after, the list of free agent starting pitchers is not ideal. Masahiro Tanaka figures to be posted by his Japanese team and is listed among the best starters available following a year in which he threw 181 innings and managed a 1.24 ERA. He’s got plenty of suitors, notably the Dodgers and Yankees, so winning the posting on Tanaka is anything but a guarantee. I don’t see Ervin Santana going back to the Angels, but Matt Garza represents an interesting option. He’s a California native and did not exactly impress in his time with the Rangers. The lineup remains largely intact, provided Bourjos and Trumbo return.
Oakland A’s: Avail. Budget: $9 MM
The A’s have exactly $17 Million in guaranteed contracts on the books for 2014. Pretty much the only guy who knows how much he’s getting paid next year is Yoenis Cespedes. That available budget figures to shrink quickly as the A’s pick up their club options of Coco Crisp ($7.5 M), and doll out arbitration raises to everyone else (including Seth Smith who made $3.25 M in 2013 and Jed Lowrie who made $2.4, and first time eligible/burgeoning superstar Brandon Moss). The true budget with which Billy Beane will construct his club figures to be somewhere in the range of $60 Million and following arbitration raises his club figures to be around $51 Million. I eyeballed a bunch of those arbitration guys and did some fuzzy math, but know that the A’s have likely freed up some money by getting rid of Chris Young and their closer position is in a state of flux.
As for team needs, the A’s roster is often constructed of castoffs and low salary type players and 2014 figures to be much of the same. The club holds an option for Brett Anderson that many think they will pick up before trading the lefty. I saw a report linking them to the Japanese import Masahiro Tanaka, but that figures to be erroneous as the posting fee will likely top $50 M. The club got 2.7 wins out of Josh Reddick thanks largely to his defense and his .302 career OBP and 12 HR in 2013 figure to be issues. Seth Smith can play some RF, but the A’s need another bat. Justin Morneau is a free agent, as is Corey Hart, but this is still a club that prefers to get better through the trade market and figures to be active in small contract negotiations only.
Seattle Mariners: Avail Budget: $25 MM
The Mariners have some freedom this offseason. For a better outline of their finances than what I’ll provide in this space, check out this. Their payroll for each of the past two seasons has been right at $84 Million, but in years past has stretched as high as $117. I wouldn’t suspect a $117 M payroll, but I’m saying it is semi-flexible. As for who is gone: Franklin Gutierrez has a $7.5 M club option that I assume will be turned down given his poor career last 4 years. (He hit .211 across 200+ plate appearances at AAA this year). I’m a big Mike Morse fan, but his $7 M contract is off the books. As will be Kendrys Morales ($5.25), Brendan Ryan ($3.25), and Raul Ibanez ($2.75). Ibanez might be brought back depending on the rest of the Mariners offseason plans. Also off the books is the $8.5 Million that the Mariners paid to Chone Figgins in 2013.
As for potential free agents to pursue, the Mariners figure to be in the market for a bat or three, even after the rebirth of Dustin Ackley. Jack Zduriencik has indicated that he’ll make a qualifying offer to Kendrys Morales and so I figure he’ll be back in Seattle for $14ish Mill. Still, even with $15 Million a year to spend, the Mariners could find themselves a nice free agent bat or two. The Braves did that with BJ Upton just last year! I expect the Mariners to find the markets for Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann to be too rich for their blood, but Shin-Soo Choo makes a lot of sense provided they do not expect him to play center. Maybe Curtis Granderson? They need help in the outfield and at second base, and I expect them to be active across multiple fronts this offseason.
Texas Rangers: Avail. Budget: $35-40 MM
Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, and AJ Pierzynski are set to be free agents. Lance Berkman figures to retire. Those four alone represented nearly $34 Million in salary in 2013. Then you factor in the $10 Million they paid Michael Young to play in the National League and you’ve got yourself a club looking to make some deals. They’ve had a good team for a number of years and figure to be active in all facets of the market as they seek to finally break through and win the World Series.
With Pierzynski gone and money to spend, I assume the Rangers will be big players for Brian McCann. With David Murphy and Nelson Cruz gone, Jacoby Ellsbury could be headed to Arlington. Bringing in Ellsbury would allow manager Ron Washington to move Elvis Andrus lower in the order after he has unjustifiably opted to hit the young shortstop in the top two in the order for years. The Rangers have been linked to David Price for years, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go after another pitcher via free agency. None of the names are all too appealing, but if they get McCann and Ellsbury, a rotation lead by Darvish, Holland, Ogando, and Harrison will be just fine.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: Brandon Inge had 110 plate appearance for the Pirates this year.
