It is now free agent season and Off The Bench is embarking to bring each team a preview of what to expect as open signing dawns on Tuesday. Each day, we’ll be posting a preview of a division and a final Bold Predictions post will follow, hopefully before any of the big pieces ink their deals. This is not intended to be a full offseason preview as the hot stove has yet to heat up and we have no real sense of the market. Names like David Price, Mark Trumbo, and Peter Bourjos will capture our attention in the coming months, but for now we’ll set the table for what each team might be looking for as free agency hits. Yesterday, we covered the AL West. Today, we’ll tackle their NL counterparts. Please note that all dollar amounts are in millions, and that MM and M also mean million. (So, for that matter, do ‘ml’ ‘milly’ ‘six-ohs’ and ‘big boy $s.’)
Arizona Diamondbacks: Available Budget: $2+ Million
Last offseason the Diamondbacks paid top dollar for grit and it lead them to a .500/second place team. They pushed their payroll ($86 MM) to the highest it has been since 2002 and the second highest in organization history. With those facts in mind, and the fact that I calculated their guaranteed money in 2014 contracts to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $85 MM, the Diamondbacks should have a relatively quiet offseason. However, based on the way that the Kevin Towers front office has operated, they will be loud, if eventually minor, players.
In reading through the Diamondbacks’ contract obligations, I was struck by the number of contracts that now look like overpays. Sure, Paul Goldschmidt is due just over $1 Million next year (after a year in which he is likely to have finished in the top 3 in MVP voting), but the rest of the roster is full of moderately-highly paid veterans. Martin Prado is due $11 M; Brandon McCarthy $10.5 M; JJ Putz $7 M; Miguel Montero $10 M; Aaron Hill $11 M. They’re also going to pay Heath Bell $5M to do Heath Bell things. They certainly do not have any crippling contracts, but for an organization that has to keep its payroll in check, I’m sure that they would like a do-over on some of those contracts. They’re a team with relatively good young pitching, but with veteran guys that I do not find too exciting. A trade for a top flight starting pitcher could be an interesting move, but the team seams more intent on finding a power hitting corner outfielder… like Justin Upton? An actual candidate available in free agency is Corey Hart. He’s perennially underrated and seems “gritty,” if oft injured.
Colorado Rockies: Available Budget: $10-14 Million
Jorge de la Rosa will stay in Colorado for another year at $11 MM, while Rafael Betancourt’s option was not picked up. Matt Belisle waits on the Rockies decision for his $4.5 MM 2014 option. Without factoring in Belsisle’s contract status, I have the Rockies up to $71 Million in payroll obligations for 2014. They operated at something in the neighborhood of $73 Million in 2013, but in the three years prior were in the $80’s. How active they are this winter depends on where exactly there payroll will sit in 2014. If it is in the $80 Million range, they figure to add a quality pitcher, but if it is in the $75 Million range, I suspect the Rockies will be quiet.
Looking at how they got to $70 Million is simple. De la Rosa, Tulowitzki, CarGo, and Michael Cuddyer will make a combined $48 Million. (That’s over half of the payroll regardless of which range it actually lies in.) Throw in the $7.8 Million that Dexter Fowler is due and the $5 Million they’re due to pay Jhoulys Chacin and you see where the money disappears quickly. The Rockies ranked last in NL ERA, but lest you think that’s a product of Coors Field, they were also 13th in road ERA. The good news is that there figures to be a number of veteran starting pitchers with health concerns that could wind up as great fits in Colorado on a one-year deal. Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Johann Santana, and maybe even Dan Haren all come to mind. Phil Hughes and his high flyball percentage should steer clear of Colorado.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Available Budget: $?? Million
The Dodgers stalled out of the gates in 2013, but thanks to the Wild Bull named Yasiel Puig and some fantastic starting pitching, they went on one of the more impressive stretches in recent memory. With the Magic Johnson ownership group in place, the Dodgers are always in play to make heads turn. They have $180 Million on the books for 2014 thanks to 7 players due more than $15 Million and Chad Billingsly due another $12 M. Clayton Kershaw figures to join the tax bracket for guys making more than $15M annually. They’ve got impressive resources and a few areas of need.
I saw multiple reports that the Dodgers are heavily in pursuit of Masahiro Tanaka, who figures to be posted by his Japanese team and is listed among the best starters available following a year in which he threw 181 innings and managed a 1.24 ERA. Tanaka would team with Kershaw, Grienke, Ryu and presumably Billingsly in a rotation that could be record setting. They’ve also got holes in the infield and too many outfielders. Magic Johnson has said the team would not be players for Robinson Cano and none of the other free agent infielders are all too exciting. I’d be surprised if Juan Uribe was not invited back given how he fit in with the team, but stranger things have happened, and they tend to happen to Uribe.
San Diego Padres: Available Budget:$7 Million
The Padres operated at about $68 Million in 2013. I calculated their 2014 obligations, estimating for arbitration raises to be in the neighborhood of $61 Million. Primary to the Padres offseason plans is to figure out the Chase Headley situation. Do they believe in him and think that locking him up to a long-term deal coming off of a down year could give them the necessary leverage? Should they trade him before he hits free agency and exceeds their budget?
This is not a team that has historically been active in the free agency market and I don’t expect that to change this offseason, but with the young pitching that the Padres are going to send to the mound in 2014, I have hopes for this team. Competing with the Dodgers will be tough, but they need to add some offense somehow. They’ll be helped by the return of Everth Cabrera, but left field has been a disaster and the team can only afford to wait on Yonder Alonso to figure it out for so long. Chris Young might be an interesting addition for the Padres, as would Carlos Ruiz.
San Francisco Giants: Available Budget: $10-15 Million
The Giants may have more money than that to spend given how heavily they invested in Tim Lincecum and Hunter Pence. I’ll save the Lincecum/Giants blasting, but this is a team that finished 14 games below .500 and figures to bring back largely the same cast of characters. Matt Cain figured it out in the second half, but Ryan Vogelsong never did and Tim Lincecum seems to be what he is now. And don’t ask me to define that. It’s a team that’s built on good pitching that did not receive good pitching. The good news? Barry Zito is gone! Still, over the next few days, they need to decide what to do with Ryan Vogelsong’s $6.5 M option.
The club could use offensive upgrades. Another outfielder in the Jason Kubel mold could prove very useful. A shortstop that can hit would be a nice luxury and I suspect that Jhonny Peralta or Stephen Drew will find their way to San Francisco. The Giants have already done their heavy lifting this offseason by resigning Lincecum and Pence, but Brian Sabean is not done constructing his roster.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: Yusmeiro Petit actually did carry that no-hitter to the last out on September 6th. That was not a dream or mirage.
