In 2005, a young hard throwing lefty joined reigning Cy Young winner Johan Santana in the Minnesota Twins starting rotation and was dubbed his heir apparent. Nearly a decade later, it will be Santana following in Francisco Liriano’s footsteps this winter, as the newly unemployed, surgically repaired Santana looks for work.
The New York Mets paid Santana $5.5 million for the privilege of not having to pay him $25 million to pitch for them this season, thus ending the 7 year relationship between the Mets and the pitcher they gave up a huge haul of prospects to get, and paid more than $100 million. Johan’s time in New York had been rather tumultuous, though it’s really hard to place the blame for that on anything more than sour Mets luck. When he pitched, Johan was usually very good, posting 2.53, 3.13 and 2.98 ERAs in his first three seasons in Queens. In addition, he authored the first and only no-hitter in New York Mets history in 2012. The issue was that Johan rarely pitched.
In his time with the Mets, Santana spent more time on the DL than on the mound. He made 30 starts only once and threw a single pitch in only 4 of his 6 contract seasons. Santana underwent a procedure to repair the capsule in his left pitching shoulder in 2010 (I actually underwent a similar procedure in high school) and he missed the 2011 season entirely. After 19 months of rehab he returned to the MLB, but was clearly not quite right and muddled through 2012 before having the procedure done again.
Only 11 pitchers have ever made it back from capsule repair surgery and Johan’s had it twice.
Santana has pitched in only 1 of the last 3 seasons. He’s recovering from a surgery that barely anyone comes back from. He’s an aging, injury prone pitcher who may never throw a professional pitch again. Why would anyone want him? Well, lets look at his ex-teammate.
Francisco Liriano was a much criticized (by me) trade deadline acquisition by the Chicago White Sox in 2012. He is a Tommy John survivor, missed the 2007 season, but had been just awful leading up to the trade. From 2009-2012, Liriano posted just 1 season with a sub 5 ERA. After his disastrous stint with the ChiSox, he was effectively persona non grata heading into last winter, an erratic and oft-injured starter who could be depended upon for absolutely nothing. Sound familiar?
In a move which in hindsight was pure genius, Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neil Huntington inked Liriano to a short term contract, one with an extremely low base salary but heavily incentive laden. The Pirates minimized their risk and put themselves in position to catch lightening in a bottle. Obviously, that’s exactly what happened. Liriano flourished in Pittsburgh this season, even earning the start in the Pirates first playoff game in 21 years (and winning it). The contract worked out perfectly.
The same strategy would be perfect this winter for former Best Pitcher on Earth Johan Santana.
It’s true, the situations aren’t completely analogous, Santana is a riskier proposition in the sense that there is no guarantee that he even plays, but for the right team in the right situation, he could be the answer. The fact remains, when healthy, Johan has never been an ineffective pitcher.
My proposal is this: Give Santana a 1 year deal with a very low guaranteed salary, say about $1 million, and build in escalators that add money for things like starts, innings, and strikeouts. The Liriano/Mike Napoli model, if you will.
Why would Santana agree to this plan? Why wouldn’t he? He’s coming off a more that $100 million deal and just got a check for $5.5 mil so he’s not exactly hurting for cash. He’s hurting for an opportunity and he should jump at the chance to prove that he can still get guys out. This deal works for everyone involved.
So then, what kind of team would make this kind of move? There are a couple of candidates. First, a team that feels that it’s one pitcher away but that it doesn’t need an Ace. This is the situation the Pirates found themselves in last winter. They knew they had a good team but there were question marks in the starting staff. If Liriano was good, they reasoned, it would be a huge stabilizing presnece; but if he bombed out, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. Second, a team with nothing to lose could look to Santana. For these teams, who aren’t really expected to contend but aren’t terrible, Santana would be a great bonus and might propel them on an improbable run. Let’s take a look at some potential fits for a Liriano-style Santana deal:
The Pittsburgh Pirates: We’ll start with the team that started it all! The Pirates have a strong and solid rotation right now and by mid-season, it should include AJ Burnett, Liriano, Gerrit Cole, and soon-to-be rookie Jameson Taillon. The fifth spot in the rotation is a little bit more problematic with Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Wandy Rodriguez in competition. A rejuvenated Santana would certainly be an upgrade over those three but if it doesn’t work out, the Pirates would still be competitive.
The Cincinnati Reds: Like Pittsburgh, the Reds have a strong top of the rotation with Homer Bailey, Mat Latos, Johnny Cueto and Tony Cingrani. If Santana could come back as an effective starter, they’d have one of the top rotations in baseball. If not, they’d still be in the mix at the end of the year.
The Colorado Rockies: The Rox aren’t expected to contend in the NL West next season. There are arguably 3 better teams they would have to beat out. But it’s not Colorado’s offense that’s the problem. With Troy Tulowitski, Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer, and Dexter Fowler, they can mash with anybody. It continues to be the starting pitching that drags this team down. Last season, the Rockies had the worst home ERA in the NL (as usual), but also the 3rd worst road ERA as well. They need to figure out this pitching thing. Maybe Johan could help. He’d provide veteran leadership for a young staff and and if he can be anything like his healthy self, he’d probably be their best pitcher. This whole Rockies-Johan idea just oozes Liriano-Pirates of last season. The biggest question would be if Santana would be willing to attempt his comeback tour in Coors Field.
The Baltimore Orioles: The O’s ran out of 2012 magic in 2013 and they continue to sport a rotation without a true stopper. Jason Hammel is likely leaving (the fact that that matters should tell you all you need to know about Baltimore’s starting staff) so there’s room for Johan if he’s able. If he’s effective, he could be the missing link for this potential playoff club.
The Tampa Bay Rays: This one’s a little iffy. The Rays have a lot of young pitching and it might not be worth the money in their tight payroll, but if they really do move David Price this winter, there could be room in the balance sheet and the rotation. The stable of young arms mean that the Rays wouldn’t need to count on Santana for anything, but if he emerges as a valuable commodity, he would help solidify their playoff rotation after Matt Moore. Notably, Santana wouldn’t be the Rays first reclamation project. They tried the same trick with the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona last season, meeting with almost no success.
The Kansas City Royals: Santana might be a good fit in KC. The rotation is strong as is, with James Shields and the underrated Danny Duffy coupled, hopefully, with Ervin Santana whom the Royals should make every effort to retain. The rotation isn’t deep however and Johan could be a valuable back end veteran starter. This is a team with serious potential in a tough division and Santana might be the missing piece.
The Cleveland Indians: If it wasn’t for Liriano, the big story in this vein last season would have been Cleveland’s Scott Kazmir. Kazmir, a former top prospect and big league flameout, was picked up off the independent league scrap heap and turned into a quality big leaguer (again). With Ubaldo Jimenez likely leaving (there may be a post on that complicated and stupid situation forthcoming), maybe Santana could be round two for the Indians’ fountain of youth. The team has a good rotation now but they can use all the help they can get in a tough division.
The Los Angeles Dodgers: It seems like every player acquisition conversation these days has to include the Dodgers. LA’s rotation is stacked with Clayton Kershaw, Zach Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chad Billingsly/Josh Beckett, but there is room for one more. Already the Dodgers have been rumored to be in the David Price hunt and the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes (I have another post planned on this ridiculousness) but if both of those fall through, they have the money and the depth to conduct a Johan Experiment.
-Max Frankel
