The NL Central Standings as displayed at Wrigley Field some time in 2011. Things change over time.
It is now free agent season and Off The Bench is embarking to bring each team a preview of what to expect as open signing dawns today. Each day, we’ll be posting a preview of a division and a final Bold Predictions post will follow, hopefully before any of the big pieces ink their deals. After missing my post on Sunday to figure out that I really hate all the delays and game pace of the NFL, our schedule has fallen a bit off track. Never fear, the endeavor will eventually culminate, be it with a bang or a fizzle. This is not intended to be a full offseason preview as the hot stove has yet to heat up and we have no real sense of the market. Names like David Price, Mark Trumbo, and Peter Bourjos will capture our attention in the coming months, but for now we’ll set the table for what each team might be looking for as free agency hits. Please note that all dollar amounts are in millions, and that MM and M also mean million. (So, for that matter, do ‘ml’ ‘milly’ ‘six-ohs’ and ‘big boy $’s.’) Today, we tackle the NL Central.
Chicago Cubs: Available Budget: $45 Million
The Cubs rebuilding project has me excited to the point that, in a conversation taking place at a local drinking establishment, I guaranteed they would make the playoffs in 2015. Joe Namath-inspired predictions aside, the Cubs future of position player prospects is very bright. Kris Bryant is the class of MLB third base prospects, a title once held by Mike Olt, who is also in the Cubs organization. Jorge Soler is more highly regarded in some scouting circles than Yasiel Puig. Albert Almora looks to eventually team with Soler, while Javier Baez is lighting a fire for Starlin Castro to improve as a shortstop.
The Cubs do not appear to be making their run to the playoffs just yet. Their stable of prospects, coupled with Castro’s and Anothony Rizzo’s poor 2013 campaigns, make for an uncertain, if not entirely exciting organizational agenda. Their main priorities this offseason will center on outfield and second base help. Darwin Barney has proven his worth as a glove-first second baseman, but hit just .208 this past year. The Opening Day outfield as currently constructed would be Ryan Sweeny, Junior Lake, and Nate Schierholz. For an organization with payrolls consistently in the $100 Million range, that’s not an outfield that should be used for 162 games. I expect the Cubs to go strong after a Center Fielder, namely Jacoby Ellsbury or Curtis Granderson, and make a play on a few veteran starting pitchers on one year deals in an attempt to recoup some value via a deadline deal. Josh Johnson, Johann Santana, and Scott Kazmir make some sense. The club would also be wise to lock up Jeff Smardzija long term and build around him as their future Ace. The Cubs will be active, but must be mindful not to block the promising prospects.
Cincinatti Reds: Available Budget: $10-14 Million
The Reds have declined to give Bronson Arroyo a qualifying offer and I will operate under the assumption that someone other than the Reds will give the right hander a multi-year deal. I like the decision as it leaves the Reds rotation still strong and frees up cash. Homer Bailey and Mat Latos figure to lead a strong staff that will have Tony Cingrani and Johnny Cueto. New manager Rick Price has long been in favor of letting Aroldis Chapman start and paying Jonathon Broxton and Sean Marshall $5 Million a piece to handle the set-up roles makes increasingly less sense with Dusty Baker out as manager. With pitching a strength, the Reds need to improve in the outfield.
Shin-Soo Choo is a free agent and is expected to command a 5-year deal worth about $15 a year. I think that’s a bit steep, but the Reds are desperate for OBP. I’m not sure if Billy Hamilton should be handed the Center Field job just yet, and would be much more comfortable with a rental outfielder. Marlon Byrd has value, and Chris Young could be an interesting piece to the Reds-puzzle. Still, I dug deeper and found that Grady Sizemore could be an awesome Reds-fit. According to reports, he’s looking to play again and should might even be healthy and ready to go for spring training. Sizemore with Choo and Hamilton could create a good combination in LF/CF, with Hamilton spelling either veteran should their knees hurt one day. The Reds won 90 games and should be in good shape to improve on that number if they get a good center fielder.
Milwaukee Brewers: Available Budget: $8 Million
The Brewers had a host of exciting outfielders emerge after the shame needle finally found a way to stick in Ryan Braun’s arm. Khris Davis and Norichika Aoki teamed with Carlos Gomez to create a fun outfield. Braun will be back in 2014 and the outfield will be full. The Brewers are going to pay Rickie Weeks $12 Million to bounce between AAA and the Majors and likely sit behind a guy named Scooter Gennett, who was featured in my Hipster All-Stars. This is a team without much money to spend, but also without many holes. The rotation returns all five guys that finished the year with the club and the only real hole, first base, is easily filled by resigning Corey Hart at a discounted rate.
It won’t be a boring offseason in Milwaukee; I would be surprised if the Brewers do not make some trade noise. Aramis Ramirez will make $16 Milli in the final year of his contract and the Brewers organization has four outfielders with promise.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Available Budget: $10-20 Million
The Pirates return most everyone that contributed to this season’s playoff push. The rotation as currently constructed is strong and could include AJ Burnett, who is sure to either retire or return to Pittsburgh on the cheap. Pittsburgh has needs at First Base and in Right Field, areas that addressed, somewhat successfully, with mid-season acquisitions of Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau, who are both free agents again. Still, Andrew McCutchen, Starlin Marte, and Pedro Alvarez will anchor a fairly balanced lineup.
Given their success with Francisco Liriano this past year, I would expect the Pirates to pursue another reclamation project at starting pitcher should Burnett choose to retire. The good news is that there a number possibilities in that regard (Max mused about one here). The situation in right could be easily remedied by giving Byrd a decent chunk of the available budget. First Base will require a bit more creativity as Justin Morneau is no longer the MVP candidate he was, and Kendrys Morales has received his qualifying offer. Carlos Pena still holds value and Mike Morse can play right field or first base, which would be a dream situation in terms of NL-necessary flexibility. Trying to extract value from a James Loney/Gaby Sanchez platoon is another option that fails to elevate my blood pressure.
St. Louis Cardinals: Available Budget: $25-30 Million
The Cardinals are stacked. They just won the National League pennant and return everyone outside of Carlos Beltran. They’ve extended Beltran a qualifying offer of $14.1 Million for his services next year and I expect him to stay in St. Louis on a two-year deal. If he doesn’t, prospect Oscar Tavares appears ready to play RF today. Tavarez could also steal Jon Jay’s spot in center.
The Cardinals will be involved in a number of trade scenarios as David Freese’ salary will continue to rise through arbitration and he becomes expendable with Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter both demanding time on the infield. Shortstop is a position of need. Pete Kozma cannot be the starting shortstop on a World Series champion team and the Cardinals would be wise to pursue Stephen Drew. Drew has been extended a QO, and the Cardinals seem to value their draft picks very highly meaning Drew may not wind up in the Cardinal red. Johnny Peralta is a free agent, but does not seem to identify with the Cardinals brand. They might be content running it back with Rafael Furcal and Kozma in the hopes that one figures it out in 2014, but I would expect activity across the board as the Cardinals continue their pursuit of a World Series title.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: 2013 is the international year of statistics.
