It is now free agent season and Off The Bench is embarking to bring each team a preview of what to expect as open signing dawns today. Each day, we’ll be posting a preview of a division and a final Bold Predictions post will follow, hopefully before any of the big pieces ink their deals. After missing my post on Sunday to figure out that I really hate all the delays and game pace of the NFL, our schedule has fallen a bit off track. Never fear, the endeavor will eventually culminate, be it with a bang or a fizzle. This is not intended to be a full offseason preview as the hot stove has yet to heat up and we have no real sense of the market. Names like David Price, Mark Trumbo, and Peter Bourjos will capture our attention in the coming months, but for now we’ll set the table for what each team might be looking for as free agency hits. Please note that all dollar amounts are in millions, and that MM and M also mean million. (So, for that matter, do ‘ml’ ‘milly’ ‘six-ohs’ and ‘big boy $’s.’) Today, we tackle the NL East.
Atlanta Braves: Available Budget: $15-18 Million
The Braves offseason plans are quite simple: figure out what to do with their two veterans that have hit free agency. Tim Hudson and Brian McCann are both free to flirt with other teams and seeing them in another uniform would be strange for Braves fans. McCann has spent all of his 9 years in the Major Leagues with the team that drafted him and he is from nearby Athens, GA. Ostensibly, he would prefer to stay at home, but it’s unclear if the Braves have the money or the will to keep their homegrown slugger. Meanwhile, Tim Hudson arrived in Atlanta by way of Oakland after the 2004 season. He’s been there a while and repeatedly taken hometown discounts to stay in ATL.
The Braves have the money to bring back McCann with the correct deal. Their stated budget last year was $98 Million, but what they actually put into the club was somewhere closer to $90. With the presence of Evan Gattis and catching prospect Christian Bethancourt, the Braves may decide to pass on McCann and let Gattis/Bethancourt take the reigns. If that is the case, I suspect that Tim Hudson will no longer be a Brave and the club will pursue a bigger name to be their Ace. Jake Peavy has always been the apple of GM Frank Wren’s eye and there have been more than a few rumors about the Braves going after Rays pitchers. Ultimately, the biggest offseason story for the Braves could be Dan Uggla and BJ Upton. If either is able to turn their 2014s into 2009s, the team should be good to go. Also of note is the arbitration status of some of the young Braves players. Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and Craig Kimbrel all figure to see big raises.
Miami Marlins: Available Budget: $5-10 Million
From the ESPN.com preview page: “The Marlins are reportedly aiming for a payroll of $37 million. When you add up the league-minimum salaries and expected raises earned by arbitration-eligible players, the Marlins will have only a few million (between $5-10 million) left to play with.” That $37 Million mark is incredibly low and only emphasizes our understanding of Miami as the Evil Empire. Reportedly, each club will be receiving $52 milly this year as part of the national TV package split among all 30 teams and there’s something called revenue sharing that behind the curtains gives the Marlins a few more million to spend. If that $37 mark is accurate, expect a few phone calls from the commissioners office and the MLBPA to be headed toward Miami.
The Marlins have a fantastic stable of young pitchers that should make this team competitive in the long run. Stud Jose Ferandez is just 20 and finished in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this year. He leads a group thats backed by Jacob Turner, Nathan Eovaldi, and Henderson Alvarez. All of whom are 23 or younger and all of whom posted ERAs under 3.75 in at least 100 IP. They’ve also got Andrew Heany making noise among the prospect people. They’ve got some decent young outfielders, and Adeiny Hechavaria could be the answer long term at short, given a renewed interest in glove-first shortstops. Still, the team needs a legitimate second and third baseman and the free agent options are not inspiring. A trade with the Cubs, sending a young pitcher for one of their third basemen, could be interesting, but this team is committed to being bad and making money from it. Evil @*#<&%+ empire.
New York Mets: Available Budget: $25-30 Million
Presumably, the Mets have money to spend even if they are not going to compete with the Yankees payroll. The problem is that with Matt Harvey to miss 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery, it looks like the Mets will punt on next year and make a real run at the NL East crown in 2015. Still, the club needs to figure out long term solutions at shortstop, in the outfield, and add starting pitching depth. They’ll no longer be paying Jason Bay to be bad, which is good. Also, Johann Santana is no longer going to be eating up expectations and dollars on the DL.
The club figures to be in play for a number of second-tier starting pitchers and could be wise to convert one of the starter’s they have returning into a multiple inning reliever. Jeremy Hefner should move to the bullpen and let Wheeler, etc handle the starting pitching duties. (I should write a post about the return of the multiple innings reliever.) Back to Mets… They need outfield help. Eric Young, Juan Lagares, and Lucas Duda cannot be the serious Opening Day outfield for a team that plays in New York. The Mets have the money and will be able to pursue/land one of Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz, or Carlos Beltran. Among those, Nelson Cruz and Curtis Granderson seem the most likely to me, though the Mets may be more interested in a trade than committing long term money to outfielders over the age of 30 with injury histories. All is not lost in New York, only 473 more days until Matt Harvey Day.
Philadelphia Phillies: Available Budget: $25-30 Million
The Phillies opened their 2013 campaign with a $159 MM payroll and finished with 89 losses in fourth place. Sure, injuries to their star players contributed to that, but their list of free agent signings over the past two years reads like a who’s who of non-exciting/why-bother free agents: Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, Delmon Young, Laynce Nix, Chad Durbin, Chad Qualls and Ty Wigginton. None of them impressed in their time in Philadelphia, to few people’s surprise. This offseason sees Roy Halladay and Carlos Ruiz hit the free agent market and both will need to either be brought back or replaced.
With catcher, starting pitcher, and Cody Asche penciled in to start at third base, the Phils figure to be busy this offseason. Throw in that Darin Ruf would be the starting right fielder if things kicked off today (I kind of wish they did) and this club’s large budget disappears quickly. Kevin Youkilis seems like the Phil’s kind of guy. They need another reliable starter or two behind Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee and I expect that that could be anyone. This is a club that is going to spend the money this offseason to return to prominence after a two year hiatus from the playoffs. Would you pay Jonathan Papelbon and Ryan Howard a combined $38 M if you didn’t plan to make the corollary moves to ensure the team’s success?
Washington Nationals: Available Budget: $4-5 Million
Assuming the Nationals payroll remains about the same as it’s $120 milly figure from 2013, and my rudimentary guesses on arbitration raises are correct, the Nationals don’t have a whole lot of wiggle room this offseason. The good news is that they do not really have a big need. The team came on strong in the second half and a full year from Bryce Harper/Wilson Ramos could be all the team needs to return to prominence. There staff could use another good starter and I think that the difference in their 2012/2013 campaigns was rooted in the disappointment of Dan Haren. They’d love to have a solid veteran in the $5-8 range, but solid veterans come in the $12-15 range (See Edwin Jackson’s deal last offseason).
As for potential targets, any of the same crew that I’ve been referencing throughout these previews could find Washington a lovely city. Playing for a contender while regaining value on a one-year deal that would give both parties benefits could be enticing. The Nats will be good in 2014. Just how good depends on their offseason plans.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: It is the 6th of November. (Did you remember, remember yesterday?)
