I have to be honest, I don’t quite understand the New York Mets. They haven’t been legitimately competitive in years–but over the last couple of seasons they’ve outperformed their rock bottom expectations just enough that they’ve decided to keep their once-temporary manger, Terry Collins, around a little bit longer.
Last season, Matt Harvey developed into a superstar, even starting the All-Star game before getting hurt. Harvey will be out for all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery, something that infinitely complicates the Mets’ situation. All indications out of Queens are that the team plans to tread water in preparation for Harvey’s return and then go for the gold in 2015 with Harvey at the top of the rotation. This seems like a somewhat perplexing strategy. Even with Harvey, the Mets were bad last season, finishing 74-88. That was third place in the NL East, but 22 games out of first. It seems like a lot to just sort of assume that Harvey, who should be on an innings count in his first season back after TJ, will be the same guy he was last season.
On top of that, the Mets are expecting that Zach Wheeler will develop into Harvey’s partner in crime, Travis d’Arnaud will be a solid middle of the lineup force, Noah Syndergaard will be a quality number 3 starter, and David Wright, who will be 32 when Harvey returns, will still be a elite player. It’s a lot to ask.
Especially because Mets fans are growing rightfully impatient. Their team hasn’t done anything to hint towards actual improvement in years. The Sandy Alderson era has thus far been more about hope than change and the one glimmer of excitement, Harvey, has been emphatically snuffed out for more than a year.
The Mets really need to do something. They need to do it for their fans, for ticket and jersey sales, for the reputation of their owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon. And they need to do it because their longterm plan is crammed with entirely too many what-ifs.
Luckily, the Mets have money to spend. Their only longterm contract obligations are to Jon Niese and David Wright and they play in the biggest market in the country. The Wilpons lost a bundle with Madoff and have been conservative since but it’s high time they reopened the checkbook.
What follows are two suggestions for the Mets to pacify their fan base, elicit some good will, and shore up their roster so that they aren’t abysmal in 2014 and are ready to roll in 2015.
Option A: Sign Free Agent Pitcher Matt Garza
Over the course of a full season in the NL East, Garza is a 2.5- 3 win pitcher. He’s only 29 years old and has experience in both the AL and the NL. He was traded from the Cubbies to the Rangers last season and struggled some in Texas but in the still pitcher friendly confines of Citi Field, Garza could shine.
Most importantly, Garza could be a strong stabilizing force in the Mets rotation. In 2014, he’d be their number 1, important for myriad reasons. It would some of the heat off Zach Wheeler, letting him develop properly; allow the Mets move Jon Niese down in the pecking order; limit the number of starts they have to give to Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hefner; and provide evidence that they aren’t totally mailing it in. In 2015, he’d slot in behind Harvey as a veteran presence that would significantly deepen the entire starting staff and prevent the Mets from relying on young and/or barely proven guys in their big go-get-em year. Best of all, Garza’s price tag, which should be in the neighborhood of 3 years-$40 million, is something the Mets could handle without too much of a problem.
Option B: Trade Reuben Tejada, Ike Davis, and Gavin Cecchini to the Toronto Blue Jays for Jose Reyes and Colby Rasmus and cash
Yes, this will be a blockbuster if it actually happens, but it makes a great deal of sense.
Reyes back to the Mets would make a huge splash. Fans were devastated when he bolted for the Marlins and bringing him back would be a big deal for the Mets image. He’d be reunited with David Wright and be a huge presence at the top of the Mets order. Reyes is 30 so he has a few more good years ahead of him. He’d make the Mets much more watchable in 2014 and be a guy ready to produce at (hopefully) All-Star level in 2015. He would be a dramatic upgrade over Reuben Tejada, Reyes’ original successor in New York, who has been useless over the last couple seasons.
Reyes is owed $16 mil next year and then $22 mil thereafter through his mutual option in 2018. I propose that the Jays and Mets split it down the middle. Thereby making him affordable for the Mets and saving the Jays more than $50 million.
A huge area of need for the Metropolitans is in the outfield. They just added Chris Young on a flyer–which was a good move–but they’d still be starting Lucas Duda and Juan Lagares if the season began today. Bleh! Colby Rasmus is a great option and could take over in center field for a while. Rasmus hit .276 with 22 bombs last season and would slot nicely in either the 2 or 5 spots in the Mets lineup. He’s arbitration eligible and about to get very expensive, so the Jays would probably be open to moving him for the right price.
Going back to Toronto, the Mets would send Tejada, a real Big Leaguer who could take over for Reyes immediately at short in Canada, Ike Davis, and Gavin Cecchini.
Davis has huge upside potential. He’s been a complete dud so far in New York and has worn out his welcome to the point that there was talk of sending him to AAA last season, but he has always had incredible raw power. He could be a 30 homer first baseman without making unreasonable physical adjustments, and many think that a change of scenery for him could go a long way. Take him out of the pressure cooker in Queens where fans had been awaiting his arrival and development, and drop him into polite, peaceful Toronto? He may finally realize that potential. While the Jays already have Adam Lind at first and Edwin Encarnacion at DH, a pair that combined for 59 homers last season, you can never have too much firepower in the AL East and the abundance of power would be a great strength to trade from in the Jays’ effort to improve their thin starting rotation. (Couldn’t you see Lind heading to Seattle as part of a deal for one of their young arms?)
Cecchini was the Mets’ 1st round pick in 2012 and projects as their shortstop of the future. He could just as easily be the Blue Jays’ shortstop of the future and could definitely be the prize of this deal.
If the Mets make both of these moves, they would position themselves for relevance in 2014 and contention in 2015. Sandy Alderson should get aggressive rather than content to wait back any longer.
-Max Frankel
Stat of the Day: In 2011, Dan Haren was 6th in the Majors in fWAR among pitchers.
