The New York Yankees have reportedly agreed to terms on 7 year-$153M deal with centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. After Brian McCann’s 5 year-$85M deal earlier in the week, notions of an organizational shift have evaporated. We wrote here earlier this month that hints of change appeared to be in the air. It seemed like the Wall Street mentality–and eerie parallel arc–was on its way out, and a new era of calculated risk was on the horizon. Apparently not.
Jacoby Ellsbury was probably the best value outfielder on the market. Probably, but not unequivocally. Also available (externally) were Nelson Cruz, Shin-Soo Choo, and Carlos Beltran. Cruz wasn’t a fit, but the other two could have been, and could have been secured on less conspicuously lopsided deals. Choo is likely to get something along the lines of 5 years-100M, and in most counting categories his 162 game averages actually eclipse New York’s new seven year itch. At just one year older, significantly more durable (157 more games played over the past 5 seasons), that’s a good buy. Beltran, at this point, is a bridge man: big name, heavy 2 year deal, keeps the public occupied as youth matures. That Cashman passed on Beltran is condemnation enough, because it shouts an overarching truth: there is no youth to mature; there is no one coming to the rescue. I suppose that’s for another discussion…
So Choo would have been a better fit. But how bad is this one? Let’s be clear: Jacoby Ellsbury is really good. He makes the Yankees a lot better. But this about a philosophy. Ellsbury’s defense is superb, but lock-down defenders don’t command $22M a year for 7 years. He’s being paid like a 30-30, guy, and he isn’t. Super-agent Scott Boras has, predictably, magicked one anomalous season into a career. Only once in Ellsbury’s six tilts has he hit more than 10 homeruns. Once. He hit 32 that year, and his stolen bases fell by a third when compared to any other full season’s total.
Which brings us to the elephant in the room: frailty. Ellsbury has contributed in only four of his six years on the 25 man roster. The others were lost to injury. For a guy reliant on speed, an inherently aggressive and all in all more dangerous aspect of the game, time is always a factor. In truth, Yankee fans will be clamoring for blood when Ellsbury is a 36 and 37 year old former base stealer making $21,857,142 a year. We’ve seen it before.
But, let’s have a reality check: New York fans should only be upset here if the team is actually serious about it’s oft-cited desire to stay under the luxury tax, and all that that entails. E.g. if they don’t re-sign Robinson Cano. Jacoby Ellsbury is an excellent player who makes the Yankees significantly better next year and for a few more. In the last 2o years the Yankees have won 13 Division titles, seven Penants, and five World Series–all with the same philosophy. History is on your side, New York. Now your only worry is that they’ll actually follow through on the frugal rhetoric.
–Ari Glantz
Quote of the Day: “There’s no way I can go play for the Yankees, but I know they are going to come after me hard. … It’s definitely not the most important thing to go out there for the top dollar, which the Yankees are going to offer me. It’s not what I need.” -Johnny Damon, six months before signing with the Yankees.
