Spring Training is here! Finally!
It’s the time of year when every team is a contender and every non-roster invitee is the potential Next Big Thing. Teams have made optimistic additions to their rosters all winter, mangers have scribbled lineups on napkins in restaurants, and GMs have projected stat lines for every member of their team. Hope springs eternal in Spring Training but eventually, reality will hit. For some, 2014 will be a career year, for others it will be the season when they finally arrive, but for just as many 2014 will inevitably be a forgettable campaign. Injuries will occur, slumps will endure, and some players and even some teams will undoubtedly be major disappointments. Here are three prime candidates for a little regression to the mean.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1st base, Arizona Diamondbacks:
Goldschmidt finished second in the MVP voting a year ago thanks to a .302/.401/.551 slash line and league leading homer and RBI totals. He was a force in 2013, no argument, but his numbers did come as a surprise to many evaluators who profiled him as more of a platoon guy when he was coming up through the minors.
The Dbacks finished 81-81 for the second straight year in 2013 despite Goldschmidt’s stellar production. In an effort to push themselves over the top this year Arizona has made some splashy, if controversial, additions. Most notably Mark Trumbo and Bronson Arroyo. Trumbo is supposed to fill in to the middle of the Arizona lineup alongside Goldschmidt to form one of the most intimidating right handed power duos in recent memory.
There is no doubt that Goldschmidt is some sort of the real deal. One would imagine that either the power or the average will dip, as a .302 AVG with 36 bombs seems a little much. Goldschmidt’s .343 BABIP seems a little high, though it’s not far off from where he was in 2012. Fangraphs projects Paul to post somewhere near a .289 AVG with 31 homers, coming to a 4.6 WAR, almost 2 full wins below where he was last season. I agree with Fangraphs but I would go a little further. I see Goldschmidt as a 4 WAR guy, somewhere near .275 with 28 homers and 90 RBI.
Shin Soo Choo, Outfield, Texas Rangers:
Choo was one of the most sought after free agents this offseason. He parlayed a .423 OBP into a 7 year, $130 million deal with Texas in December, giving the Rangers what they hope is a dynamic leadoff hitter who can get on base in front of their big boppers for years to come.
Choo has always been great at getting on base, and 2013 wasn’t the first time he reached the .400 OBP plateau. Last season also saw Choo hit an impressive 21 homers, again not a first for him. (Actually, this was the third time he’s hit at least 20 in a season.) There can be no doubt that Choo is an excellent player but 2013 seems a lot more like an Adrian Beltre-esque walk year boon than a harbinger of things to come- especially since Choo is already 31 years old and likely on the wrong side of his peak. At least some of last years’ OBP can be traced to his league leading hit by pitch total–a totally random occurrence, or at least one that can’t be counted on. Similarly, 2013 saw Choo’s highest FB/HR rate but a dip in overall FB%.
There is an excellent chance that Choo never again reaches the kind of power or on base numbers he generated in 2013. This season, 17 homers in Arlington to go along with a .385 OBP and a .275 AVG seem about right, but that is not exactly $130M worth of production.
Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies think that they can contend in 2014. They are so confident in their 2014 roster that they just added AJ Burnett on a ludicrous 1 year, $16+ million deal that could turn into 2 years at nearly $30 million. Burnett spent most of the offseason thinking he was going to retire.
Am I missing something here? This is still the Phillies team with a higher average age than Macintosh, right? Is this team seriously considering platooning Ryan Howard, owner of baseball’s second worst contract (Grantland notwithstanding) with Darin Ruf. This is the team relying on Chase Utley’s degenerative knee condition to hold off one more season. This is the team who spent most of the winter trying to trade their vastly overpaid loudmouth closer. This is the team trying to compete with the Nationals and Braves, two of the NL’s top four teams.
They think AJ Burnett, the guy who the Pirates passed over for an elimination game start and the guy who the Yankees dealt for peanuts just so they could stop watching him pitch, is the answer? Not a chance.
I’m calling it right now, a very distant 3rd place finish for Philadelphia and an October tee time for new manager Ryan Sandberg.
-Max Frankel
Stat of the Day: AJ Burnett has now made nearly $150 million in his career. He has never made an All-Star team.
