The Milwaukee Brewers head into the 2014 season with one of the more fascinating rosters in the game. Whether it is a product of their incredibly small market, the public’s general disinterest in anything Ryan Braun, or the fact that their biggest transactions over the past two years were cooled-off-stove acquisitions of Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse, the Brewers have garnered little national attention heading into 2014. I think that’s a shame. This team, lead by defamed poster boy Ryan Braun and a crew of young, dynamic up-the-middle position players, could be really good.
Any conversation about the Brewers starts with Braun. Can he be the same player now that he is ostensibly steroid-free? Were the nagging injuries that plagued him in 2013 a byproduct of going natural? Last year marked the first time that the 30 year old outfielder received no votes for MVP, but despite the injuries, suspension, and negative media scrutiny, Braun still managed a .298/.372/.498 line. If he can stay healthy and maintain something similar to that line, he’ll still be among the game’s elite. Still, with the unsung supporting cast Milwaukee has assembled, Braun will not have to produce at an MVP clip for this Brewers team to be successful.
Carlos Gomez, the Brewers 28 year old center fielder, finished the 2013 season 4th in fWAR in all of baseball. He was tied with Miguel Cabrera in terms of overall value! His defense in center field earned praise from both the scouts and sabermetric community. On top of that, he maintained the power/speed combo that he flashed in 2012. His 24 homers in 2013 were 28th most in baseball and the 40 steals he added (7th in baseball) made him the league’s only 20/40 player. Gomez’s power/speed/defense make for a dynamic compliment to Braun’s power/average/OBP.
On Gomez’ other side will be the other Crush Davis. Emerging from nowhere in 2013, Khris Davis really has Braun’s transgressions to thanks for his ascension. After Braun’s 65-game steroid suspension left the Brewers in need of a left fielder, the system’s 14th ranked prospect got his shot. Davis had always hit in the minor leagues–.288/.392/.506 slash line across more than 1700 plate appearances–but never caught the eye of talent evaluators as he was consistently deemed too old for his level. If you take away one thing from reading this incredibly long piece by Connor Glassey, formerly of Baseball America, it’s that older college players who do not appear on prospect rankings can still be incredibly productive at the Major League level. Glassey’s report posits that successful Major Leaguers who do not appear on prospects lists tend to be college picks, on the smaller side, left handed hitters and switch-hitters with good contact skills, a good feel for the strike zone, and above-average speed. Khris Davis is a righthanded hitter, but he certainly checks the rest of those boxes.
All of this is a roundabout way of saying that I believe in Khris Davis and his .279/.353/.596 line from the 150 plate appearances he got last year. He also contributed 11 homers and 3 steals in that time, and the Brewers have proven they believe in Davis by trading away Norichi Aoki this offseason.
So Milwaukee has a stellar outfield with three dynamic power/speed options, but three exciting outfielders can only make a team marginally watchable–not playoff bound.
But wait, there’s more. The Brewers have other exciting offensive players lead by Jean Segura. Acquired from the Angels in 2012 (for 13 Zach Greinke starts–lol), Segura was an All-Star last season. He was second in the NL with 44 steals, and ranked well in defensive statistics. Segura is interesting in that his first half and second half numbers were so different. After the All-Star break, the magic from his .325/.363/.487 line seemed to erode, and in the second of his first full season he hit just .241/.268/.315. Segura’s offensive abilities are likely south of his first half splits, as true shortstops who hit like that are Hall of Fame bound, but also better than his second half slip. If that’s the case, he will remain a top-tier SS.
Jonathon Lucroy and his .340 OBP and 18 homers from 2013 will be behind the plate. Aramis Ramirez, one year removed from his own 9th place finish in the MVP voting will be at the hot corner. Some combination of the artist formerly known as Rickie Weeks, and Scooter Gennett (who hit .324 in 200+ PAs last year) will figure out second base. (First base is still a question mark.)
By now it should be obvious that the Brewers will field a deep lineup in 2014, but the club ranked 9th in the NL in ERA last year. They’ve added Matt Garza and that should help to provide some stability to a club that let 10 guys start at least 6 games for them (by contrast, the Braves had just 6 guys make that many starts). It’s still not exactly a rotation to write home about. Kyle Lohse continues to defy the advanced metrics and post ERAs below 3.40. Behind him, Yovani Gallardo took a big step back–to near replacement level in 2013–from his four straight seasons with at least 200 strikeouts.
Things thin out behind those three. Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta are both innings eaters, and will hopefully keep the Brewers in games long enough for that exciting offense to do its damage, but neither is a great option for a playoff team. The bullpen blew 23 saves last year, but they’ve added Will Smith and prodigal son K-Rod to the mix. The talented Jim Henderson will try to close things out.
The pitching staff is not exactly exciting, but three gifted outfielders and an All-Star shortstop could return this organization to relevance this year. Bold Prediction: Brewers make the playoffs in 2014.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: Marco Estrada was selected one spot behind Lance Lynn in the 2005 Amateur draft. Estrada by the Nationals and Lynn by the Mariners.
