The AL West has done a pretty good job of defying prediction of late. In each of the last two seasons, the Oakland Athletics have walked away division champs, despite the Angels’ firepower and the Rangers resources. In fact, both the Angels and the Rangers have been trending in the wrong direction over the last couple of seasons. So much so that the Seattle Mariners think they have a legitimate shot at the West’s playoff berth. Only the Astros aren’t realistically trying to capture the crown in 2014.
All this competition, 4 teams who think they’re best suited to win now, will undoubtedly make for a fun season. This division features the game’s best player (Mike Trout), one of its most exciting pitchers (Yu Darvish), and the league’s two biggest 2014 acquisitions (Prince Fielder and Robinson Cano), not to mention a team in the Astros who will entertain us with a constant stream of prospects on the rise.
At first glance, the reloaded Rangers seem to be the favorites, but the A’s have proven that their ‘small names, big results’ strategy is for real and the Angels get nearly 10 wins out of one player. Moreover, the Mariners are more interesting than they have been in some time, though 2015 seems like a more realistic possibility for them. Let’s take a look at how we think things will shake out.
Projected Standings:
- Texas Rangers
- Oakland Athletics
- Los Angeles Angels
- Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros
It was a bit of coin flip for second and third but the Angels still have Joe Blanton on their roster, and the benefit of the doubt can never be given to a team that still pays him to play baseball. Everyone in this division is better than they were last year, which is good, but the standings will look quite similar once you get past the top.
Texas Rangers: 1st place, AL West, 94-68
It’s really hard to predict that any team will win 95 games, so I gave the Rangers 94. This team is good. They have reloaded while simultaneously clearing out the over crowding they had in the middle infield and fixing the top of the batting order problem they had last season. They’ve also added a big bopper for the middle of the lineup and, while Prince Fielder is likely to decline over the course of his lengthy contract, 2014 should be a big offensive year for him.
Fielder and Adrian Beltre will be run producing machines this season, especially with newly signed big ticket free agent Shin-Soo Choo at the top of the order. Choo is very good at getting on base, though not nearly as much as rumor and anecdote would indicate. I would expect a pretty significant drop off in his production from last year but he should still be nearly productive enough to warrant his massive salary. Like Fielder, this deal will come back to haunt the Rangers, but for now all is good barring injury.
The exciting part of the Texas lineup is the younger guys. Elvis Andrus is a good shortstop, though not worth his ludicrous contract, and he’ll look to rebound in 2014. Joining him are baseball’s best younger-than-Bryce-Harper players in Jurickson Profar and an outfielder the Rangers are excited about in Leonys Martin. Top to bottom, this is a dynamic lineup that should score a ton of runs.
On the other side of the ball, Yu Darvish is a bona fide Ace and he will be backed up by a solid rotation featuring young gun Martin Perez, reliable if average Matt Harrison, and a couple of guys with high ceilings in Alexi Ogando and Nick Tepesch. This will be a solid team top to bottom. Watch out.
Oakland A’s, 2nd place, AL West. 90- 72.
The A’s will rely on their pitching as much as the Rangers rely on their hitting. Sonny Gray is a stud, and he will be joined by Drew Pomeranz, Dan Straily, AJ Griffin, and Jarrod Parker as well as Scott Kazmir. Each of these pitchers was once projected as a top of the rotation talent and if everything clicks right, this could be a staff to be reckoned with. It’s got a higher ceiling than the Rays’ vaunted crew, if a bit of a lower floor.
Even if things don’t fall into place perfectly, the A’s still figure to have a top 10 rotation to pair with new closer Jim Johnson and a really solid bullpen led by Luke Gregerson and Sean Doolittle. Pitching is a strength.
Last season, Josh Donaldson posted a shockingly good WAR thanks to his defense, .301 AVG and 24 bombs. He’ll need to repeat that kind of production if he wants to see the playoffs again. The A’s have some sabermetric darlings in the form of Brandon Moss and Eric Sogard, and Josh Reddick simply has to be better than his dreadful 2013. However, Yoenis Cespedes has devolved into an entirely unpredictable entity and Coco Crisp is somewhere near 55 years old at this point.
The pitching is solid, the hitting is less so. A good team, not great.
Los Angeles Angels: 3rd place, AL West. 84-78
While the Los Angeles Angels will bounce back from a disappointing season, the prospects of a full playoff turnaround are doubtful. Once again the Angels lineup has the allure of offensive firepower and this year will spark more confidence. Albert Pujols looks as healthy as he ever has with offseason foot surgery behind him and should bounce back nicely. Josh Hamilton should also return to something closer to form from his .250 batting average and, if healthy, Erik Aybar and Howie Kendrick will provide solid output.
Two bright spots reside in JB Shuck and Kole Calhoun. Both young outfielders show defensive versatility and Shuck posted a near .700 OPS in limited play. Shuck and Calhoun can provide good sparks to an overall slow-stepping lineup and could be names floating around at the trade deadline.
But the Angels lineup will rest on the shoulders of the young kid from Vineland, NJ. Mike Trout put together two of the most dominant seasons by a position player in the history of the game and while talks are swirling over his future contract, he has another year to dazzle fans across the country before he’s even eligible to negotiate the amount he gets paid through arbitration. Last year, his walk total increased by nearly 40, his OBP and OPS shot up, and his doubles total was tied for seventh best in the AL. The only knock on Trout is his strikeout total, which, as he continues to mature (scary thought) should lower significantly. Trout is the motor of this team and will post a double digit WAR to power the Angels to 84 wins.
But the Achilles tendon that will keep the Angels from the playoffs this year is their pitching staff. The starting rotation shows promise but the promise won’t keep. Jered Weaver is showing good signs in Spring Training and will have a good year but his sheer dominance of the past is gone. CJ Wilson will produce but is still a middle of a rotation thrower. The back of the rotation will most likely feature Clayton Richards, Hector Santiago, and Tyler Skaggs who are young and have potential but are unproven as solid anchors. The bullpen was bolstered in the offseason with Fernando Salas but Ernesto Frieri as closer and rest of the bullpen does not instill a sense of trust and reliability.
The departure of Mark Trumbo and Peter Bourjos won’t hamper the lineup which will produce big numbers this year but the lack of pitching spells another playoff miss for the Angels.
Seattle Mariners: 4th place, AL West. 81-81
The Mariners picked a weird time to go for it. There are arguably three teams in the AL West who are better than they are and their hitting is questionable at best, but they just splurged on a $240 million second basemen so here we go, ready or not.
Felix Hernandez will be solid as usual. Taijuan Walker is about to jump onto the stage in a big way, and the rest of the rotation is pretty decent too. Hiashi Iwakuma won’t replicate his 2013 success but he should still be a pretty good starter. Overall, the rotation will be better than the Angels’ but not good enough to compensate for the offense.
Robinson Cano is baseball’s best second basemen and one of the game’s best players, but he can’t do everything by himself and even Cano has admitted that the Mariners need another bat. The rest of the lineup has some bright spots but nobody is ready to be the second fiddle on a playoff caliber team. Maybe in a couple seasons Mike Zunino, Nick Franklin, and Kyle Seager will be at that point, but today, the dropoff from Cano to Corey Hart is just too great.
Now, I’m not trying to say that Cano will be IBB’d every time up. There’s a lot of evidence that points to the mythic nature of ‘lineup protection.’ I’m simply saying that 8 times out of 9, someone other than Robinson Cano will be wearing a Mariners’ jersey and standing in the batter’s box and that’s not good news for Seattle.
Houston Astros: 5th place AL West. 60- 102
The Astros are in the midst of one of the most thorough rebuilding projects ever attempted. They haven’t won more than 56 games since 2010 and bottomed out at 51 wins in 2013. The result of all this losing is that the franchise has stockpiled high draft picks and good young prospects in an effort to win somewhere down the line. 2014 might be better, but not by all that much. There are some good prospects who expect to make their big league splash this year and that might help, but overall this team enters 2014 as, once again, the weakest in baseball.
This winter has been a pretty busy one down in Houston. In addition to a contentious legal battle about TV rights, the Astros have managed to find time to add dynamic center fielder Dexter Fowler from Colorado and free agent pitcher Scott Feldman, though the latter move makes absolutely no sense.
While Fowler helps on offense, the Astros’ problem is a profound lack of depth, even in their starting lineup. In fact, you could make a legitimate case that they only have four guys that could even make a case for starting on any other team: Fowler, Matt Dominguez, Jason Castro, and Jose Altuve. Altuve is the face of the franchise and he just received a lengthy contract extension despite some lackluster 2013 numbers. Dominguez showed some serious pop with 21 bombs last season and plays a very good third base, and Castro is an exciting all around catcher. Besides those four, however, the remainder of the Houston position players are a who’s who of 4A players and busts.
On the mound, things don’t improve that much. Scott Feldman, a legitimate #4 on a good team, is Houston’s Ace and he is followed by a collection of guys who should be competing for the fifth spot on any other team. Jerome Williams, Brad Peacock (who hasn’t really panned out) and Brett Oberholtzer highlight the bunch. (Of that group Oberholtzer has pretty decent upside.)
The biggest brightspot on the mound for Houston is doubtlessly Jarrod Cosart. Cosart tore up AAA last season and even posted a sub 2 ERA over 10 starts in the majors. Mark my words, Jarrod Cosart is 2014’s Matt Harvey. Watch out for his emergence on to the scene in a big way.
Overall, the Astros can’t and won’t compete. Superprospects like George Springer and Mark Appel are coming soon, and Carlos Correa is on his way too, but even they won’t be enough to keep the ‘Stros from the basement in 2014.
Bold Predictions:
- Yu Darvish will win the Cy Young Award
- Mike Trout will win the MVP Award
- Albert Pujols will hit .280 with 29 homers and 112 RBIs
- Yoenis Cespedes will finish the season on a team that is not the A’s
- Jurrickson Profar will be an All-Star
- Jarrod Cosart will be an All-Star
- Robinson Cano will throw a public hissy fit when the Mariners score a total of 30 runs in May
- Cano will hit 3 homers in a game at Yankee Stadium
- All my team win-loss records will be exactly spot on
-Max Frankel (special thanks to Jimmy Seter for the Angels preview)
