In 2014, the American League Central will look to bring the World Series crown back to the division for the first time since 2005. The Detroit Tigers made it into the Fall Classic just two years ago, and fell to the eventual World Champion Boston Red Sox last October. The Tigers are undoubtedly using recent failures as motivation to crest the mountaintop this year. However, every team in the division appears stronger than they were in 2013 and the road to the World Series may not be quite as easy as the Detroit would hope.
The Prediction:
- Detroit Tigers
- Kansas City Royals
- Cleveland Indians
- Chicago White Sox
- Minnesota Twins
At first glance, it appears that my prognostication for the 2014 standings is to keep the status quo. However, in reviewing the 2013 standings, one is reminded of just how good the Indians were (not just a Wild Card team, but won 92 games) and just how disappointing the White Sox season unfolded (last place, 99 losses). I expect all the teams in this division to be better resulting in a more clustered, competitive feel for the division standings throughout the summer.
Detroit Tigers (94-68)
The Tigers added Ian Kinsler this offseason in a move that sent slugging first baseman Prince Fielder to Texas. Fielder’s considerable void will be filled by the similarly girthsome Miguel Cabrera, shifting to his more natural first base and turning the reigns of the hot corner over to prospect Nick Castellanos. The lineup should be solid as they return most of the pieces that helped them to the second highest scoring offense in baseball last year. Bottom line: as long as Triple Crown threat, back-to-back MVP, offensive juggernaut Miguel Cabrera is around, the Tigers will score plenty.
The thing that makes Detroit scary good is the effectiveness of their rotation. The 2013 emergence of the Max Scherzer/Anibal Sanchez dual threat allowed the Tigers to trade away Doug Fister this offseason. Justin Verlander, despite a disappointing 2013 season by his standards, is still among the game’s top starting pitchers. After Scherzer won the Ct Young and Sanchez led the league in ERA, JV will be pitching to regain his title as staff Ace. Twenty-five year olds Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly round out the formidable rotation, and both are hungry–Porcello to improve on a pedestrian 2013 campaign, and Smyly to prove he can replicate bullpen success as a starter.
Without Smyly, the bullpen that has been a question mark for the Tigers in recent years needed to be revamped. It was, as Joe Nathan and Joba Chamberlain join Al Alburquerque and Phil Coke as reliable purveyors of quality relief innings. Last year’s potential closer, Bruce Rondon is still throwing fast fastballs and the Tigers hope he can make a good pen great.
This is a deep Major League team that appears capable of sustaining success even if key contributors find their way onto the Disabled List. I fully expect the Tigers to be back in the playoffs, with their biggest headache being who to anoint as “the Ace.”
Kansas City Royals (90-72)
When Kansas City traded Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis in December of 2012, it was seen as a sign that the club was in “win now” mode. Despite missing the playoffs in 2013, the “win now” mentality is still prevalent in Kansas City. The good news centers on the development of their young bats. In the second half of 2013, the core three–third baseman Mike Moustakas, catcher Salvador Perez, and first baseman Eric Hosmer–took big steps forward. Driven by their success (and other factors) the Royals went 43-27 in the second half. Over a full season, that pace would translate to somewhere between 99 and 100 wins. Obviously, there’s reason for optimism to end a 29-year postseason drought.
The core three are not the only bright spots in the KC lineup as they’ve got youth all over the field. To bolster that youth, they’ve brought in Omar Infante and Norichi Aoki, two steady presences capable of hitting at both eds of the order. Aoki was an interesting addition though, because the Royals outfield is now 5-deep with guys who all deserve playing time. Obviously, Alex Gordon will be steady in left field, but Aoki, Justin Maxwell, Lorenzo Cain, and Jarrod Dyson can all contribute different skills. The underrated Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer (who I think is about to take The Leap into superstar) will anchor a solid Royals lineup.
The rotation is where things get interesting. Behind Ace James Shields sit Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas, reliable innings eaters. Though neither is exciting, reliable near-4.00 ERA starters help get teams to the playoffs (but not win championships). Slots 3 and 4 are up in the air. The Royals gave Bruce Chen $4.25 Million this offseason on a one year deal, but his ceiling is probably near-4.00 ERA at this point. Nipping at Chen’s heels are two electric arms in Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy. Duffy dazzled in his five starts last year going 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA. He was limited to 24.1 innings, but still piled up 22 strikeouts. And Yordano Ventura has been the story of Spring Training. He’s got a fastball that can sit above 100 and a decent repertoire of secondary pitches. Many scouts think he can be great.
The guess here is that Chen loses the battle and the Royals send him to help an already good bullpen. Greg Holland has a case to claim he’s the second best closer in baseball (behind Craig Kimbrel) after he saved 47 games and managed a 1.21 ERA in 2013. Tim Collins and Aaron Crow are also very talented young relievers who helped KC to the best bullpen ERA in baseball last year.
Cleveland Indians (86-76)
The Indians return much of the same club that brought them 92 wins last year. While they did let go of Ubaldo Jimenez, they are confident that they’ll see enough internal improvement to absorb the loss. In particular, Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn will be counted on to regain form after disappointing inaugural seasons at The Jake Progressive Field. Improvements from those two could make the Indians lineup deep and dynamic.
Yan Gomes emerged in 2013 as a stud catcher. Gomes hit .294 with an .826 OPS and a 4.0 WAR while throwing out 41 percent of would-be base stealers. The Indians brass has tried shifting Carlos Santana (one of the best offensive catchers in the game the past three years) to third base and the hard working Santana may just make it as a serviceable glove at the hot corner. Michael Brantley(LF), Jason Kipnis (2B), and David Murphy (OF) are all underrated and quite good. Asdrubal Cabrera is a very productive offensive SS and will look to improve after a somewhat down 2013. The lineup will be strong, with the possibility for more depending on the contributions from Swisher, Bourn, Cabrera, and DH (assuming Santana sticks at third).
The rotation is a bit shakier. Gone is 2013 surprise Scott Kazmir, and second half savior Ubaldo Jimenez has taken his talents to Baltimore. I’m very optimistic about the 1-2 punch of Justin Masterson and Danny Salazar, but after that things look bleak. I’m cautiously optimistic, as well, on Trevor Bauer, but the right hander will need to improve over everything he’s done at the big league level so far. Corey Kluber could surprise me, I guess, but Carlos Carrasco, Shawn Marcum, and Zach McCallister will not. If the Indians want to be in the playoffs again in 2014, they will need a pitching upgrade at some point.
The bullpen should be pretty good assuming John Axford is good John Axford and not bad John Axford. (There have really been only very good John Axfords and very bad John Axfords since he broke in in 2010.)
Chicago White Sox (75-87)
The White Sox opened the 2013 season witha $113 Million payroll and promptly lost 99 games. They’ve tried to address some things, but the White Sox are always a difficult team to project. I suspect that their lineup will be surprisingly good and their rotation surprisingly bad–and over the course of 162 games, a poor rotation means a sub-.500 record.
Chicago signed Jose Abreu to fill the void left by Paul Konerko turning old so quickly. The early reports are good. He’s mobile enough at first base and has a strong, simple swing that should lead to consistency through the summer months. I’ve always been a believer in Adam Dunn, even if Adam Dunn isn’t a believer. His power is rare in today’s game. The outfield should be good as former Diamondbacks prospect Adam Eaton was brought over to hit atop the order, and prospect Avasail Garcia should really thrive with consistent ABs. They’ve also still got Dayan Viciedo and Alejandro de Aza, and I suspect that one of the two could be included in a package for a starter this summer.
That rotation has it’s share of questions behind Chris Sale. Jose Quintana may have had the quietest 200 inning/3.51 ERA season possible a year ago and is a worthy mid-rotation starter. John Danks though, does not excite me. His 4.46 ERA over the last three years says a lot about him, and that he’s currently listed as the number three starter says a lot about this White Sox staff as a whole. Prospect Erik Johnson has basically been handed a rotation spot, but he’s expected to be a mid-level type impact. Felipe Paulino and Andre Rienzo are competing for the fifth spot and neither has too much upside. I suppose it’s not a terrible rotation behind Chris Sale, just boring. The good news is that Sale is very, very good and White Sox fans can have him every fifth day.
Minnesota Twins (71-91)
Minnesota apparently did not like the taste of so many Ls last year. This offseason they went out and signed Phil Hughes, Jason Kubel, Ricky Nolasco, and Kurt Suzuki, and agreed to keep Mike Pelfrey around for another year. Problem is, that doesn’t really mean much in this division. The future is bright, as their farm system grades out as the second best in all of baseball according to Keith Law, but one has to think that the “the night is darkest before the dawn” adage holds true here. A slightly improved rotation should keep the Twins relevant in 2014, but the playoffs–and .500–are goals for 2015.
Something to watch in 2014 is Joe Mauer’s switch to full time first baseman. His offensive output was exceptional for a catcher, and the Twins are hoping that removing that grind from the equation will translate to even gaudier numbers. It’ll be interesting to see how his production plays relative to the new position. After Mauer and Josh Willingham, the rest of the lineup isn’t very good. The highest 2013 OBP among projected regulars belongs to Alex Presley at .313. That could be bad news.
The rotation is much improved with the additions of Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco, but neither is all that good. Kevin Correia is listed as the number one on their depth chart and he has a 4.49 career ERA.
As I said, the night is darkest before the dawn. The Twins already got the worst news of the year when uber-prospect Miguel Sano required Tommy John surgery. While the lost year may slow his development, he’ll be a big league contributor very soon. Fans will have to suffer through at least one more year of impotence, but can take heart that a middle of the order combo of Sano and Byron Buxton–considered the top prospect in baseball–will be supporting a slew of talented starting pitchers very, very soon.
-Sean Morash
