The NL East is one of the more interesting divisions this year. It boasts a variety of philosophies and promises some good competition. In the Nationals and Braves we have legitimate contenders, but far from perfect rosters. The Phillies are delusional contenders, a team that thinks it is built to win but is destined for overpaid mediocrity. The Mets are on the tail end of a fairly lengthy but ultimately encouraging rebuilding process which should make them competitive in the division before too long. Finally, the Marlins and owner Jeffrey Loria look to have a decent group of prospects, but seem incapable of sticking to a plan and may decide to sell their near-MLB ready prospects for a shot at the 2014 A-ball crown.
The Prediction:
- Washington Nationals
- Atlanta Braves
- Philadelphia Phillies
- New York Mets
- Miami Marlins
The East is competitive and exciting. It’s strong top to almost bottom, but this wasn’t a tough task. Two weeks ago, a strong argument could have been made for the Braves, but that argument took a pretty big hit last week with the loss of Kris Medlen and potentially Brandon Beachy as well. Let’s take a look at how it all shakes out.
Washington Nationals (97-65)
The Nats were supposed to be the best team in the NL last year but injuries to Bryce Harper, a terribly underperforming Denard Span, regression for Adam LaRoche and other key lineup cogs derailed their summer months. In last year’s season preview, I wrote that “The Nationals are the best team in baseball, on paper.” I’m not prepared to make the same declaration, but a savvy offseason trade that landed Doug Fister makes the District’s club the best in the NL East headed into the season (on paper).
The rotation will carry this team through any offensive slumps. Stephen Strasburg is the headliner, but Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zmimermann both had ERAs under 3.40 and solid peripherals to match their No. 2 status. The addition of Doug Fister–worth 4.6 WAR for the Tigers in 2013–was a huge boon. If Fister can maintain that level of success, the improvement over the 2013 contributions from Dan Haren (1.5 WAR) should be worth about 3 wins alone. I expect talented lefty Ross Detwiler to round out the rotation, but there are rumblings that Tanner Rourke might take the spot. Competition at the back end of a rotation is never bad.
The lineup returns nearly everyone from a batting order that was expected to produce in a big way last year but ended up a resounding disappointment. Bryce Harper spent the offseason trying to isolate the performance enhancing properties of Girl Scout Cookies, and looks like he succeeded. Anthony Rendon should see some sophomore improvement, Ryan Zimmerman should be himself, and while Jayson Werth might see a bit of regression, he should still put up very serviceable numbers. Should any of the regulars falter or go down with injury, new skipper Matt Williams has options . Nate McLouth seemed reborn after he left Atlanta and will be Washington’s fourth outfielder. And while Danny Espinosa has been displaced at second base by Rendon, he is a more than capable backup across all the infield spots.
The bullpen will be among the game’s best as right handers Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen, and Tyler Clippard should help to shorten games to 7 innings o a regular basis.
It’s a solid club from top to bottom that should easily eclipse the win total posted last year (86).
Atlanta Braves (89-73)
The Atlanta Braves may have been the favorite to win the NL East if this had gone up two weeks ago. In that time, Opening Day starter Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy–for whom they had high hopes after last year’s Tommy John–have scheduled dreaded visits to Dr. James Andrews. While the Kris Medlen injury may not seem so bad to the casual fan, consider that since the All-Star break in 2012, Medlen had the second best ERA in baseball behind Clayton Kershaw. The Braves quickly signed Ervin Santana, but he does not appear ready to begin the season.
The rotation should ultimately be pretty good thanks to the emergence of Julio Teheran and Mike Minor in 2013. Teheran posted a 2.86 ERA after April last year and has looked dominant this Spring Training. Minor is a bit behind schedule following surgery in December to open up his urinary tract (seriously), but the man who posted a 3.21 ERA in 202 innings last year should be ready by mid-April. Santana will provide stability in the front end of the rotation, while the injuries have opened up spots for 23-year old Alex Wood and 37-year old Freddy Garcia to round things out.
The Braves will be relying much more heavily on the lineup this year. Gone is Brian McCann, but Braves fans are optimistic because BJ Upton and Dan Uggla can’t possibly be as bad as they were in 2013. Jason Heyward has really impressed this Spring and Freddie Freeman finished 5th in the MVP voting a year ago and is still just 24. There’s reason to believe that this lineup will be could be potent.
The Braves bullpen lead the Majors in ERA last year. Craig Kimbrel is the most watchable in a good way closer in the game and Luis Avilan and David Carpenter were both excellent a year ago. All three had ERAs under 1.78. The Braves may get a boost in June as JonnyVenters is expected back from Tommy John surgery around then.
It’s a good team that could stumble out of the gate as they cope with a gutted rotation, but the ship should be righted by summer.
New York Mets (75-87)
This write-up would have a distinctly different flavor if reigning fourth place Cy Young finisher, Matt Harvey, weren’t recovering from Tommy John. The Mets have a number of exciting players this season and could be a surprise team even without Harvey for most of the season.
The rotation will be led by Bartolo Colon and for some reason I’m optimistic about his season even though he’s 40. Zack Wheeler will be looking to build off the promising 17 starts he made a year ago, while Dillon Gee and Jon Niese have become reliable sub-4.00 ERA/30+ start guys. The Mets appear ready to go with Daisuke Matsuzaka in the 5-spot, but have top prospect Noah Syndergaard ready if the gyroball doesn’t seem to gyro all that much.
The lineup is full of talented players, but there’s plenty to be nervous about after David Wright and Daniel Murphy. Curtis Granderson is recovering from a broken wrist and Chris Young and Eric Young Jr. have never proven to be reliable for a full season. Travis d’Arnoud has exactly 112 career plate appearances and is expected to be the everyday catcher. Ike Davis had a .661 OPS last year and bounced between the minors and bigs. Ruben Tejada and Juan Legares are both defensive minded players who posted sub-.300 OBPs a year ago.
Despite all those question marks (and more in the bullpen as top relief option Bobby Parnell was shut down in September of last year), I’m optimistic about how far the rotation will carry this team, especially if Syndergaard makes his MLB debut this year as expected. Long term, it will be interesting to see if the Mets are willing to spend money through free agency to compliment their core of homegrown players for a run in 2015. For the 2014 season, they opted to pursue the likes of Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon and run it back with little-to-no offensive production in center and at short.
Philadelphia Phillies (74-88)
The Phillies think themselves a contender. The bad news is that no amount of thinking makes it so. From Dan Syzmborski’s piece on ESPN.com titled Philadelphia Phillies Must Prepare for Fire Sale:
A year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies won 73 games, and they had the oldest team in the National League. This is generally not a great combination, as old and bad rarely reverts to old and good. Based solely on those two pieces of information, rebuilding might have been in order for the franchise.
Instead, general manager Ruben Amaro doubled down on veterans this winter, signing a 37-year-old hurler (A.J. Burnett), a couple of 36-year-old catchers (Carlos Ruiz and Wil Nieves), a 36-year-old outfielder (Marlon Byrd), and a 33-year-old starting pitcher (Roberto Hernandez).
That prognostication seems a little harsh, but the reality is that this team doesn’t have what it takes to compete with the best of the NL. Or even really the middle of the pack.
The rotation could be pretty good following the addition of AJ Burnett. He’ll join Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels to form a solid 1-2-3 punch. Lee is still a legitimate Ace as he posted a 2.86 ERA last year, and Hamels received Cy Young votes as recently as 2012. Kyle Kendrick is an innings eater and the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona (Roberto Hernandez) could be better than you think after a shift to the NL.
The lineup is not nearly as good. Marlon Byrd cannot be counted on to repeat his 2013, while Ryan Howard hasn’t played more than 80 games since 2011 and Chase Utley has a degenerative (degenerative!) knee condition. Dominic Brown and his 27 HRs from a year ago are intriguing, but Cody Asche is penciled in to be a starter.
I do like what the organization is doing with Jimmy Rollins, but am not happy that they continue to pay Jonathon Papelbon in real American currency. I’d much prefer Monopoly money for the “closer.”
One big positive for the Phills is new manager Ryne Sandberg. Ryno is clearly a no nonsense kind of guy who seems like he’ll do whatever he needs to to put his team in a position to win each and every day. That’s a welcome change from mangers who acquiesce to playing certain players just because of their salaries.
Miami Marlins (70-92)
The Marlins have a number of promising young players who deserve better than the people making the roster decisions. That Placido Polanco was the Opening Day 4-hitter on last year’s squad underscores just how indifferent this team is to winning.
There will again be holes in the lineup surrounding superSlugger Giancarlo Stanton, but Christian Yellich shows real promise and top prospect Jake Marisnick should get a chance to prove what he can do this year. The Marlins continue to turn to mediocre cheap veterans to fill in holes in their lineup. Rafael Furcal, who hasn’t played significant time since the first half of 2012 (and before that 2009), Casey McGehee, who played in Japan last summer, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who lost playing time to David Ross in last year’s playoffs, and Garret Jones, who has been used as a platoon outfielder in Pittsburgh in recent years, are all expected to contribute and be everyday players on the squad.
The bright spot for the organization is the overflow of young starting pitchers hanging out in Spring Training camp. Jose Fernandez is 21 and amazing. Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob Turner, and Henderson Alvarez are all capable of being mid- rotation guys at worst and were all born in the 1990s. Brad Hand, another 90s kid, should be the 5th starter. I’m not going to call this quintet the Fab 5 just yet, but I should probably trademark it.
Bold Predictions:
- The Phillies trade Cliff Lee and Chase Utley to the New York Yankees for Ivan Nova, Eduardo Nunez, and all of the prospects.
- Giancarlo Stanton hits 45 home runs and collects fewer than 91 RBIs.
- 3 of the Marlins 5 starters have ERAs below 3.21.
- Jayson Werth hits below .270
- The Phillies trade Jonathon Papelbon to Russia in an attempt to get the US to go to war–the thinking being that everyone wants to fight Papelbon.
- Justin Upton is worth 6 fWAR and is the second most valuable outfielder on the Braves
- Julio Teheran finishes above Jose Ferandez in the NL Cy Young standings
- Bobby Valentine makes the kiss cam at RFK Stadium.
-Sean Morash and Max Frankel
