Off the Bench continues our valiant, March march toward Opening Day with another divisional installment of Season Previews. This time we tackle the NL Central. Defending NL pennant winners, the St. Louis Cardinals appear ready to repeat as Division Champs. Their embarrassingly full cupboard of talented young starting pitchers will not be without challengers though, as a number of other teams in the division have underrated rosters capable of surprising the less informed among us. The Pirates, fresh off their first playoff appearance since I graced the world with my presence, lead a group that could knock the Cardinals from the top spot.
This is a division that produced three playoff teams a year ago and could well do so again. The Reds, a Wild Card team in 2013, think they could be even better in 2014 getting back a healthy Johnny Cueto and a hoping for a return to form from Brandon Phillips. The Cubs, with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, their financial clout, and a bevvy of top-100 prospects are lurking, but are they positioned for true contention in 2014? And the Brewers hope a Ryan Braun with normal T levels can come back strong. Ultimately, the depth of the Cardinals roster leads us to pick the Red Birds over the rest of their division rivals.
The Prediction:
- Cardinals
- Reds
- Pirates
- Brewers
- Cubs
At first glance this is a repeat of our prognostication from a year ago. (At second glance it is too.) However, that prediction was not so far off from the eventual standings. It should again be a three-team race in the NL Central, and all three of the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates are capable of making the playoffs again. The Reds get the nod over the Pirates thanks to the quality of their starting pitching and the general consistency they maintain from last season’s 90 win club. (Note: There was some serious debate over the order of the Reds-Pirates finish here at OTBB headquarters. The unassuming Pittsburgh club has an A’s-like tendency to win more games than first glance might indicate.)
St. Louis Cardinals (98-64)
The Cardinals won 97 games a year ago and should come close to that mark again. Though they hit an insane .330 with men in scoring position (a full 48 points better than the second place Tigers), the Cardinals should still score plenty of runs thanks to a lineup full of confident, capable hitters.
The rotation is what will set this team apart. Lead by 2013 Cy Young runner-up, Adam Wainwright, the young starting pitchers will look to improve on the 3.42 ERA that last year’s group turned in. That mark ranked as the second best in the Majors, but could be bettered this year thanks to full seasons from Joe Kelley and Michael Wacha. Wacha really shined on the big stage of the postseason, while Kelley posted a 2.69 ERA across 124 regular season innings, including 15 starts. Joining them will be Shelby Miller after he posted a 3.06 ERA in 31 starts a year ago. The rotation is so good that Lance Lynn, who posted a 3.97 ERA across 200+ innings, could find himself heading to the bullpen so that Carlos Martinez gets a chance (if he can clean up his Twitter).
The lineup will be strong, even after losing Carlos Beltran. An offseason trade landed the team a true center fielder in Peter Bourjos and freed up space for prospect Kolten Wong at second base. Matt Carpenter will be back and all he did was lead the league in hits, doubles, and runs scored last year. Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, and Allen Craig are all capable of hitting .300 and did a year ago. New first baseman Matt Adams has intriguing power, evidenced by 17 homers in just 319 plate appearances.
Led by fireballer Trevor Rosenthal, the bullpen should be good. Former closer Jason Motte is expected back in May. Kevin Seigrist and Randy Choate are more than capable middle relievers and whoever loses out on the last rotation spot will be a high quality set up man.
Cincinnati Reds (92-70)
The Reds earn the nod over the Pirates here because of the depth of their starting rotation. Despite Johnny Cueto making just 11 starts for last year, and the damper of 81 games at Great American SmallPark, the Reds starters ranked third in the NL in ERA (0.01 behind the Cardinals). With a healthy Cueto dazzling in Spring Training, and Homer Bailey (more on him here) and Mat Latos continuing to grow into the pitchers they will become, the top half of the rotation is set. The bottom half should also be strong with Mike Leake (3.37 ERA a year ago) and Tony Cingrani (2.77 ERA in 104 innings). I would be remiss to not mention the injury history of Cueto and Latos, but the Reds have a promising 21-year old prospect in Robert Stephenson who could be ready by season’s end.
The lineup will feel the loss of Shin-Soo Choo from the leadoff spot, but has added the roadrunner Billy Hamilton to the top of the order. Where Choo was an OBP machine, Hamilton may struggle to reach base and take advantage of his prodigeous base stealing ability. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are still in tow and that is certainly good news. If Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, and Ryan Ludwick can prove capable right-handed compliments to Votto and Bruce, this could be a good lineup. However, this squad will draw no comparisons with the Big Red Machine and may struggle to score runs at times.
Aroldis Chapman is the Reds closer, and though he was struck in the head by a line drive on Wednesday, should ultimately return to his dominant form. Jonathon Broxton and Sean Marshall are names you should know in the pen, while JJ Hoover is a very capable late relief option in his own right, and Sam LeCure has a great mustache.
Pittsburgh Pirates (89-73)
Count me among the more pessimistic Pirates prognosticators (oh, hello, alliteration, how have you been?). Meanwhile, fellow blog mate Max Frankel was tempted to put the Pirates first and protested mightily to my picking them third. However, this is my post and I stand strong in my pick as I don’t believe the Pirates rotation. After replacing AJ Burnett with Edinson Volquez they will be nowhere near as good as the Reds.
Francisco Liriano will be great, as always, if he stays healthy. Gerrit Cole looks like a young Ace and should be able to lead this rotation for years to come. After that though, things get a little hairy. The Pirates hope that the real Jeff Locke is the one that posted a 2.15 ERA in the first half and made the All-Star game, and not the one who managed a 6.15 ERA in the second half. I think his true talent lies somewhere in the 4.30 range. Charlie Morton looked like a new pitcher last year after recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his 4.70 career ERA suggests regression is in order.
The Buccos’ potential Ace in the hole, so to speak, is Jameson Taillon. Some scouts think that Taillon will be better than Cole when all is said and done and he has the potential for a Jose Fernandez-esque splash onto the big league scene this year. The big question is when his arrival might come, and just how well the young hurler adjusts to big league hitters remains to be seen.
The good news is that the lineup should be quite good. Andrew McCutchen is the reigning MVP and is capable of doing anything on a baseball field. Starling Marte is in left and he is also quite good. The Pirates could have one of the best outfields in the Majors after top prospect Gregory Polanco is called up. All three have 20 HR/30 steal capabilities. The infield is less exciting, though Pedro Alvarez has more raw power than almost anyone in the game. His fellow infielders all leave something to be desired. Neil Walker is an above average second basemen with some pop, but the Pirates’ first base situation looks pretty dire at this point and might need to be addressed with a mid season trade if the team wants to seriously contend.
Milwaukee Brewers (76-86)
I wrote as recently as a month ago that the Brewers could squeak into the playoffs. I’m sure I believed it then, but I’m not sure I believe it today with the tough tasks they will face within their own division. Rather than reinventing the wheel here, I’ll share excerpts from that piece written just a month ago:
The Milwaukee Brewers head into the 2014 season with one of the more fascinating rosters in the game. Whether it is a product of their incredibly small market, the public’s general disinterest in anything Ryan Braun, or the fact that their biggest transactions over the past two years were cooled-off-stove acquisitions of Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse, the Brewers have garnered little national attention heading into 2014. This team, lead by defamed poster boy Ryan Braun and a crew of young, dynamic up-the-middle position players, could be really good.
Carlos Gomez, the Brewers 28 year old center fielder, finished the 2013 season 4th in fWAR in all of baseball. He was tied with Miguel Cabrera in terms of overall value! I believe in left fielder Khris Davis and his .279/.353/.596 line from the 150 plate appearances he got last year. Jonathon Lucroy and his .340 OBP and 18 homers from 2013 will be behind the plate. Aramis Ramirez, one year removed from his own 9th place finish in the MVP voting will be at the hot corner. Some combination of the artist formerly known as Rickie Weeks, and Scooter Gennett (who hit .324 in 200+ PAs last year) will figure out second base. (First base is still a question mark.)
They’ve added Matt Garza and that should help, but it’s still not exactly a rotation to write home about. Kyle Lohse continues to defy the advanced metrics and post ERAs below 3.40. Behind him, Yovani Gallardo took a big step back–to near replacement level in 2013–from his four straight seasons with at least 200 strikeouts. Things thin out behind those three. Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta are both innings eaters, and will hopefully keep the Brewers in games long enough for that exciting offense to do its damage, but neither is a great option for a playoff team.
The bullpen blew 23 saves last year, but they’ve added Will Smith and prodigal son K-Rod to the mix. The talented Jim Henderson will try to close things out.
Chicago Cubs (68-94)
The Cubs future is still not now. Theo Epstein took over the reigns of a franchise in disarray in December 2011 and since has done an excellent job revamping the prospect pipeline with monstrous position players. The promise of those prospects has the avid Cubs fan scribbling 2016 projected lineups on the back of napkins like a tweaked out Jesse from Breaking Bad.
On the bright side, 2014 will not be all bad for the Cubs. Shortstop (/second baseman?) Javier Baez has been the talk of Cubs spring training and the other top position player prospects Jorge Soler, Albert Almora, and Kris Bryant all should be ready to contribute by this time next spring. They’ve got Jeff Samardzija in tow and will look for him to produce the tangible results that his peripherals suggest. Also, Travis Wood should be fun to watch as he looks to repeat his 3.11 ERA from a season ago. Junior Lake is a probably best described as a talented adventure. Don’t expect the Cubbies to compete, but they should provide an entertaining experience for Wrigley-goers all summer.
The biggest question of 2014 will be the rebound potential of their two young cornerstone players. Both struggled significantly in 2013 and will need to show progress if The Plan is to remain on track. Starlin Castro hit .300 as a 20-year old shortstop, but now at age 24 is coming off a season in which he hit .245/.284/.371. That sub-.300 OBP is bad news for a Cubs team that still has $48 Million committed to young Castro through 2019. If he can’t regain his form and status as a fixture, look for Epstein to ship him out while the Cubs can still get some sort of a return. Baez is too good for the Cubs to dally with mediocrity at shortstop. Anthony Rizzo’s job is less in jeopardy as the Cubs’ internal options at first are not as advanced as Baez. Though the first baseman took a step back in 2013–he hit .233 with a .323 OBP one year after posting .285 and .342 marks–his job should be safe if he can land somewhere in between.
For a way better overview of the Cubs current outlook than what I provide in this space, head over to grantland and read this piece by RANY JAZAYERLI
Bold Predictions:
- Junior Lake gets fewer than 350 plate appearances, but hits more than 18 homers and steals 11 bags.
- Michael Wacha has the fourth best ERA among Cardinals pitchers with at least 100 IP at the end of the year.
- Adam Wainwright receives zero Cy Young votes.
- Andrew McCutchen repeats as MVP, but his team does not advance into the NLDS.
- Charlie Morton makes fewer starts than Wandy Rodriguez.
- Joey Votto has a higher SPP than Billy Hamilton.
- SPP makes it to the big time.
- (This is SPP)
- Edwin Jackson has a 3.79 ERA with 200 strikeouts and makes the All-Star game.
- Bartolo Colon starts a game for the Pirates this August.
- JJ Hoover has more saves than Sean Marshall.
- Joaquin Benoit pitches for someone in this division in 2019. (We WILL revisit this then.)
-Sean Morash
