Jim Bowden is back at it with fantasy trades involving Tampa Bay Ray David Price. He thought that with Off The Bench going through growing pains and the FireJoeMorgan guys enjoying retirement, he could just rattle off any nonsense and nobody would hold him accountable. Au contraire! Our #FireJimBowden campaign is back on, with Bowden’s latest trash serving as the fuel.
Note that Bowden’s article is reprinted here in bold with my comments interjected.
Note also that this sat in our drafts for way too long before Sean was able to finish it up today.
Note further that I should get paid to write about baseball full time and Jim Bowden should not.
Five trade ideas involving David Price
I can’t even get past the headline without going off. Bowden keeps running the same stuff out there as if he is changing the world. This post is wildly different than his Six trades for David Price article from 7 months ago in that it contains one fewer made up trade, uses a different picture of David Price, AND uses a bigger word to describe what he’s doing with David Price. “Involving” is 9 letters and “for” is only 3. That must mean “involving” is better, and therefore this article is better. No. But we’ve got a full 2,000 words of Bowden scribble to get through so I better learn to let the little stuff go.
The top-of-the-rotation pitcher most likely to be traded between now and the trade deadline is David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays. Jeff Samardzija and Cliff Lee are also in the conversation, but the Cubs still could re-sign Samardzija, and a Lee trade would require a return to full health for him and a willingness to be traded to specific teams. The Rays don’t have either obstacle with Price.
No chance Bowden wrote this. Makes too much sense.
The Rays also know the best time to trade Price is now; the return won’t be as high this offseason or next July as it will be over the next six weeks. So it’s only matter of time before he’s dealt to the highest bidder.
Anybody else notice the type-o? It’s only a matter of time….
But the bigger issue is that in Bowden’s November article about 6 trades for David Price, he wrote “the return will never be greater than this offseason, as interested clubs would have two full years of Price. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t deal him this offseason.” Is it possible that Bowden simply edited from his November article? Is he really that lazy? Does this gig at ESPN (a dream job for thousands of people, myself included) mean anything to Bowden? He’s got to be the first sportswriter in the Keep-Gettin-Dem-Checks club.
The most interesting aspect of a potential deal is that there aren’t as many contending teams looking for a top-of-the-rotation starter as in the past.
This is actually the least interesting aspect. Bowden is essentially saying that the market for Price has never been smaller.
For example, in the National League, teams such as the Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Giants, Dodgers and Nationals all have enough pitching at the top that they have no reason to empty their farm system to acquire Price. In fact, I would argue the Braves (who, by the way, have the best starting pitcher ERA in the league) are the only NL team likely to inquire about Price.
In the American League, two of the top teams — Oakland and Detroit — also probably won’t be bidding, though I’d never put anything past A’s GM Billy Beane, based on his track record.
Are there any examples of Billy Beane trading for a big time Ace pitcher? Aside from his puzzlesome trade for Jim Johnson (which, he surely regrets today), doesn’t Beane trade his pitchers away? Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Bailey, Brett Wallace, and Trevor Cahill were all traded away by Beane.
The Rays could get a large package for Price — as many as four or five prospects — but it’s more likely they’ll shoot for quality over quantity and end up with a two-for-one or three-for-one deal, with the possibility of more players being thrown in by either side.
Translation: The Rays package in return for Price could take any number of shapes.
For the purpose of this exercise, I’ll try to find the best two-for-one or three-for-one deals that could be offered for Price.
For the purpose of this exercise, Jim Bowden will be lazy and only craft two-player deals.
Here are the five teams I view most likely to trade for Price, along with potential deals involving each club:
1. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels appear to be the favorite to win the American League’s first wild-card berth, and they actually have a legitimate shot of overtaking the Oakland A’s and winning the West. A deal for Price would certainly seal the deal, and the Angels have enough to make it work.
Jim Bowden just actually, legitimately, and certainly thinks the Angels are awesome, and feels you need at least three adjectives to understand that. Personally I think it makes him sound more authoritative and gives him more credibility.
They might not have the young starting pitching the Rays would ideally seek, but they do have the bats to get it done. C.J. Cron would have to be the central piece in the deal, and given his potential to develop into a 30-homer, middle-of-the-lineup hitter, he’d be a perfect fit for the Rays, who are trying to build the middle of their lineup to complement Evan Longoria and Wil Myers. Sure, the Rays have James Loney signed for two more years, but the Rays could have Cron and Loney share the first base and DH slots until Loney’s deal is up, or they could trade Loney this offseason, given his affordable contract.
I feel like rehashing the bashing that I gave Bowden when he broke down a few Matt Wieters trades in a scenario where the O’s signed Brian McCann. But I’ll just link to it here. Simply, figuring how CJ Cron and James Loney would share DH/1B duties is not worthy of internet ink. I prefer to wast said faux ink on Bowden’s ineptitude, and as such will waste no more time getting back to the juicy stuff.
The Rays also would need a second good player, and Alex Yarbrough, the Angels’ second-round selection in the 2012 draft, is a player they have targeted. Yarbrough could be their long-term solution at second base, a position they’ll likely need to fill with Ben Zobrist expected to leave via trade this season or free agency this offseason. The Angels can afford to give up Cron, considering Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton are all signed to long-term deals and anchor the middle of their lineup. And with top prospect Taylor Lindsey also at second base, Yarbrough could be dealt. The Angels have the resources available to attain Price for the next year and a half, and if he does well, the team could sign him long-term after that. Adding Price to a rotation that already includes Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Garrett Richards would make the Angels a serious World Series threat.
The trade: C.J. Cron and Alex Yarbrough for Price.
This actually isn’t terrible, but one has to think that the Rays want more back for Price than two decent position player prospects, neither of whom were among the Angels’ top 6 prospects according to Bowden’s colleague. On second thought, it’s a terrible trade idea. The Rays love them some young pitching and the Angels have a few teenage prospects that could be worth targeting.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are in a similar situation to the Angels, as they are probably one top-of-the-rotation pitcher away from winning the AL East and being a serious postseason threat.
Bowden just said the Angels are in the AL East. I’m not sure I agree with Bowden’s position here either, but the idea that a good pitcher increases the Blue Jays chance of making the postseason more than Drew Hutchison makes sense.
Although the Rays would no doubt prefer to trade Price outside the division (or the league, for that matter), the Blue Jays are one of the few teams that can offer the Rays exactly what they want: a potential No. 1 starter. A deal involving Aaron Sanchez and a throw-in for Price would probably work for both teams.
That trade is not happening. Why would the Rays do that? Bowden wrote another 150 words about that potential trade, but I didn’t bother to read them. On to the White Sox.
It would give the Jays a chance to win the AL East in a year in which the division is down overall, and with Price joining Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey and Drew Hutchison, the team would have the chance to run the table in October.
The Jays likely would prefer to put Marcus Stroman in the deal instead of Sanchez, but the Rays seem to prefer Sanchez. Sanchez needs to work on his command and control, and though he doesn’t have Cy Young potential, he would fit in nicely with Matt Moore, Alex Cobb and Chris Archer as the Rays build their future rotation. Right-handed pitching prospect Alberto Tirado, who is only 19 years old, is having a down year, but he’d be a perfect throw-in and someday could develop into a quality setup reliever. The Rays could take advantage of his stock being down and get him in this deal.
The trade: Aaron Sanchez and Alberto Tirado for Price.
3. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox haven’t really been linked to Price, but it’s time to realize they are committed to rebuilding and winning, and Price would make them a legitimate wild-card contender this year.
Also known as the “Completely Out of Nowhere Trade Scenario That Makes Sense To Me (And Likely Only Me)”. I’m on board with these scenarios. Max had a good one the other day about the Mets and Carlos Gonzalez. BUT, this comes from the Jim Bowden world of nonsense. Must approach with cautious otpimism.
Rick Hahn has done a masterful job since taking over as the GM in Chicago, highlighted by his outbidding everyone for MVP candidate Jose Abreu, who should be the starting first baseman in the All-Star Game next month.
(Told you this sat in our drafts for much too long. #FireJimBowden)
President Ken Williams and owner Jerry Reinsdorf know what it’s like to hold up a World Series trophy in the White House, and with Williams’ passion for winning and Reinsdorf’s willingness to spend smartly to win, a potential trade for Price should not be dismissed. Remember when the White Sox flew under the radar and outbid everyone for Jake Peavy? I can see them doing it again here.
The Rays could ask for second baseman Micah Johnson, who has quickly proven himself in the minor leagues to the tune of a .297 average and .371 on-base percentage. Johnson has good speed, and his defense is improving. Most importantly, he profiles as a leadoff hitter, the type of table-setter the Rays need atop their lineup. The Rays would need another significant piece in the deal, and struggling starting pitcher Erik Johnson could be the guy who makes the deal work.
One of the two positions that the Rays have covered is second base. Targetting a second baseman with a career minor league average under .300 doesn’t add up, but the guy does actually seem like he could help major league teams win. The bigger issue here is that the other “significant piece in the deal” is described as “struggling”. I’ll hear it out, but if I’m the Rays, I’m not trading David price for a struggling starting pitcher that I’ve never heard of before.
He was impressive in 2012 and 2013, when he showed plus stuff, and was in the team’s rotation to start the season, but five failed starts got him shipped to the minors, where he continues to struggle. A physical would have to be done, of course, but if he’s cleared, there’s no reason he can’t bounce back and develop into a solid No. 3 starter. Solving problems at second base and the top of the lineup while adding another solid starter might be enough to get Price at the end of the day. Since this package is “light” compared to the previous two deals, a throw-in such as right-handed pitching prospect Chris Beck would be necessary.
I really wish I hadn’t spent the time reading this or making you read this. Bowden bounces from physicals performed by team doctors, to developing a solid No. 3 starter, to including a throw-in because the package is “light”. It’s more like a postcard and will not be able to pry a Cy Young award winning, former No.1 overall pick, who currently leads the majors in strikeouts, innings pitched, and sports a career low WHIP.
The trade: Micah Johnson, Erik Johnson and Chris Beck for Price.
4. New York Yankees
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner has made it clear that he will provide GM Brian Cashman the resources he needs to make a blockbuster deal at the trade deadline, and the Yankees won’t be seeing the postseason if they don’t deal for another legitimate starter who doesn’t have health or decline questions.
I’ll just let Bowden get on a roll….
The Yankees’ system is loaded, and though they would decline the inclusion of Dellin Betances, the Rays’ first choice, they would give up what they have to in the minor leagues to acquire Price.
“They will give up what they have to”. Holy insight. And “loaded?” The Yankees’ system is anything but–ranked 23rd by Baseball Prospectus.
The Rays have a long-term need at catcher, and Gary Sanchez would be the perfect acquisition in a Price deal.
Actually, true.
Sanchez would benefit from being developed behind the Rays’ Ryan Hanigan, who did a great job influencing Devin Mesoraco in Cincinnati before his trade to Tampa Bay. The Rays would also need a pitcher back in the deal, with Luis Severino being a top target. The 20-year-old is dominating the South Atlantic League, with a strikeout per inning and an ERA under 3.00. And because the Yankees would have to overpay — they’re in the Rays’ division and don’t have an Aaron Sanchez to deal — they also might have to toss in power-hitting prospect Peter O’Brien, who continues to hit towering home runs at an alarming rate (23 already between High A and Double-A).
I really don’t understand how Bowden thinks that a deal with the Yankees needs three of their top prospects while the Blue Jays could land Price for one upside second baseman, a “struggling” guy with a “No. 3 starter” ceiling plus a throw in… Same goes for the White Sox deal. Bowden is, uh, lacking fair valuations across systems and markets. The same could have been written of him while in the GM seat.
Would the Yankees pay this enormous price to get Price? They might, considering both Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira are signed long-term and they could have Masahiro Tanaka, Price and Michael Pineda in their rotation for years to come.
This completely goes against the industry trend (led by the Red Sox) of locking veteran players up to shorter deals. Also, Price is a free agent after next season and the Yankees have a long history of overpaying their guys (Oh, hi, Derek Jeter).
The trade: Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino and Peter O’Brien for Price.
5. Atlanta Braves
Every time I ask Braves GM Frank Wren what the one piece is he’d like to add to his club, he tells me a No. 1 starter. I suppose all 30 GMs should always answer that way too. Realistically, he told me bullpen help is probably what they will focus on at the trade deadline, but I would never put a Price deal past this organization, given the team’s past success with top-of-the-rotation starters. If they could put Price with Julio Teheran at the top of the rotation, they would be set for years to come.
Or one year to come. As Price will be a free agent soon. Bowden has somehow undervalued Price probably because of the number of starts he will be make for his new team, but also mentioned that Price will set whatever new team up for “years to come.” Why does Bowden insist on saying “years to come?” That’s twice in the last 100 words…
The Braves also know that the other elite teams in the NL — the Nationals, Cardinals, Giants and Dodgers — all have better 1-2 punches at the top of the rotation; to get by those teams, they’d need to acquire another ace at some point. Well, Price could be that guy, and Rays GM Andrew Friedman would probably be most comfortable dealing Price out of the American League.
The biggest question with the Braves is whether they have enough in their system to make a deal of this magnitude. The answer is yes, though they might have to trade someone from their big league club as well. The Rays would love to get Alex Wood, who lost his spot in the Braves’ rotation and is now pitching out of their bullpen. Wood, who has a 5-6 record and 3.43 ERA, would fit in nicely in the Rays’ rotation. The Rays would also insist on getting the Braves’ top pitching prospect, Lucas Sims, who is struggling in the Carolina League this year after going 12-4 with a 2.62 ERA last year at Rome in the South Atlantic League.
Here we go again. Bowden is now taking one proven, cost-controlled, effective lefty-starter and the Braves top pitching prospect in a trade for Price. Realistically that’s what it would take, but how does he come up with this trade and the White Sox trade and post them in the same space? They’re not even close.
Despite an ERA closer to 5 than 4 this year, Sims still profiles to be a solid No. 2 or 3 starter down the road. The former first-round pick from 2012 would quickly become the Rays’ top pitching prospect. Including another pitching prospect should be able to close the deal with the Rays and, in turn, give the Braves what they need to be legitimate NL East and World Series contenders. The inclusion of three pitchers of this quality would have to be tempting for the Rays to move Price out of the AL.
The trade: Alex Wood, Lucas Sims and a pitching prospect for Price.
It’s not a terrible trade idea, but Jim Bowden still sucks.
-Sean Morash
