Some teams are good. Other teams are bad. Sometimes, the difference is the performance of one player.
Obviously, for a team to win it must play up to its collective ability. But some players and some positions can be lynchpins; the difference between dominance and disappointment. Sometimes, a starting pitcher’s individual performance can mean the difference between a killer 1-2 punch and a rotation full of question marks. Other times, one hitter can turn a murderers’ row into a top-heavy mess.
Let’s take a look at organizations around the AL who have a lot riding on the resurgence, resilience, or performance of one guy.
New York Yankees, CC Sabathia, Starting Pitcher
The New York Yankees may or may not be good this year. One look at their baseball-reference page reminds non-Yankees fans that this team is never bad. They haven’t had a losing season since 1992. But will this Yankees team be good? That all depends on what they get out of their $23 Million left-handed starter.
Sure, the lineup has issues, namely: Brian McCann is 31 and coming off a year in which he posted a .286 OBP; the second base situation requires a PhD in three card roster monte to figure out; the new shortstop of the future, Didi Gregorious, hasn’t been able to hit major league pitching yet; and Alex Rodriguez. Really, there is a lot to worry about, but the Alex Rodriguez show overshadows most other issues. At some point this year, interesting things will happen with this Yankees team, and some columnist will ignore it in favor of 2000 words on A-Rod’s decision to eschew red meat in favor of fava beans. I hope it’s Jim Bowden. #FireJimBowden
Lineup aside, this team will only be as good as it’s starting pitching. There are question marks throughout, but none that carry the price tag, pedigree, or name recognition that CC Sabathia totes. He’s a former Cy Young winner who pitched just 46 unproductive innings for the Yankees last year. With Masahiro Tanaka taking over the reigns as staff Ace (provided that his elbow holds up), and Michael Pineda’s dominance in stretches, this is a rotation that could be very good. The Yankees need Sabathia to be a steadying force. He doesn’t need to dominate but he needs to be out there, consistently retiring batters.
Seattle Mariners, Nelson Cruz, Designated Hitter
The Mariners are on the cusp. They’re right there. They just need one more hitter to join Robinson Cano and they’ll be playoff bound. Is that player Nelson Cruz? The Mariners brass thought so and gave the reigning home run champ $57 Million to come to Seattle.
But the allure of Nelson Cruz isn’t without warts. He’s 34 years old and has a history of steroid use. He never hit 40 homers before last year, and he wasn’t good until he was 28. Further, he’s had injuries throughout his career that have allowed him to play 130+ games just twice. If the Mariners get the 2014 version of Nelson Cruz, they’re going to be a very good team. If Cruz is average, or injured, they’re looking at kissing their sister again with another 3rd place AL West finish.
Toronto Blue Jays, Aaron Sanchez, Pitcher
The Blue Jays think they have the lineup to win the AL East this year. It’s hard to argue with Jose Buatista, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders, and Jose Reyes as a formidable top of the order. But the rotation was always going to be their Achilles heel.
Following Marcus Stroman’s unfortunate injury, the Blue Jays are turning to their other young pitching prospect, Aaron Sanchez, to carry the burden of an uncertain pitching staff. Sanchez dominated out of the bullpen last year (1.09 ERA in 33 innings), but was never quite that dominant in the minor leagues as a starter. He was always highly regarded and has fantastic stuff that should lead to high strikeout totals, but has never pitched more than 140 innings in a season and is still just 22 years old.
But if the Blue Jays are going to have a rotation that is better than dull–RA Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Drew Hutchinson aren’t the most fun to watch–Sanchez is going to need to step up. If he fails as a starter, the Blue Jays will move him to the ‘pen and make a move for a starter, but that’s not the ideal situation at all.
Kansas City Royals, Eric Hosmer, First base
The Royals made it all the way to Game 7 last year. but getting back won’t be easy. I’m not even sure KC is even the second best team in their own division. In October, the Royals were propelled by their stellar bullpen and great speed and defense, but Eric Hosmer showed a major glimpse of the force GM Dayton Moore thinks he can be: Hosmer belted 2 ALDS homers and batted .351, providing that feared middle of the order bat that is vital come playoff time (for forcing opponent pitching changes, among other things).
The problem is that playoff Hosmer was nowhere to be found April-September. Regular season Hosmer hit only 9 homers and had a wRC+ of 99, making him a below average offensive first basemen. That’s just not going to cut it when the newly Billy Butler-less, James Shields-less Royals try to go toe to toe with the Indians, White Sox, and Tigers all summer. If Hosmer can hit .280 with 20 homers even, the Royals will be in good shape. If he repeats his shockingly bad 2014 though, it’s tough to see them making the playoffs against vastly improved competition.
Scott Kazmir, Oakland A’s, Pitcher
The A’s have one of the highest ceiling’s in the AL this season; they’ve been really good the last few years and were the best team in baseball most of last year, but they also have a really low floor. Billy Beane’s acquisition of Billy Butler was really questionable and though he beefed up his bullpen and improved at second base, there’s a good chance the A’s are worse.
If they aren’t, it’ll be because of someone like Scott Kazmir. Sonny Gray is a monster and he should have another good season in 2015 but behind him in the rotation are a bunch of guys who can be really good or really bad, depending on the day. Except Kazmir. Scott has shown the ability to pitch consistently well for entire seasons, and if he can be a dependable number 2 the A’s can match up pretty well with Los Angeles and Seattle.
Kazmir was an All-Star last year over 190 innings, but it was his first good season since 2008 and only his second season back in the bigs from independent ball. Good Kazmir means Oakland has a pretty deep rotation, bad Kazmir–a 4.40 ERA or higher and a bunch of short starts–means that Oakland needs the Jesses, Hahn and Chavez, to pitch them to the playoffs, and that ain’t happening.
-Sean Morash and Max Frankel
