Just before the 2012 season, the Cincinnati Reds inked first baseman Joey Votto to a 12-year, $215 Million deal. Off The Bench was alive and kicking back then, but we didn’t have much to say on the topic at the time. It was merely a really big deal for one of the best players in baseball. Votto was 28 and coming off of 3 straight years of at least .947 OPS. This was a superstar deal for a superstar. The one red flag was that the deal payed him at least $20 Million per year through his age 40 season, and spanned 12 years. Votto’s primary skills, working the count and drawing walks, are the type that traditionally age well. But no two players age exactly the same and for a small market team like Cincinnati, this could cripple their finances for a decade should Votto turn into Casey Kotchman.
The first two years of the deal were just dandy. Votto combined for 74 doubles, lead the league in walks both years and posted an OPS+ of 165. He was the best first baseman in the National League, even if Dusty Baker wanted him to drive in more runs. But then an injury riddled 2014 season made everyone in Cincy take pause. Votto still managed a .390 OBP, but swatted just 6 homeruns, and was merely 20% better than league average by OPS+. He played in just 66 games and was out of his 20s, with 10 more years left on his contract. Heading into this year, people were making half-hearted attempts to prove that Joey Votto’s was the worst contract in baseball.
But now Votto is back to his old ways. He’s again leading the league in walks. He’s posting his highest slugging percentage since 2012, when he finished in the top 15 in MVP voting. He’s 4th in the Majors in wRC+, effectively meaning he’s been the fourth best hitter on the planet this year. Or the second best hitter to likely have been born of Earth – Harper and Trout having berthed from the ashes of an ethereal being in the cosmos. Since the All-Star break he’s hitting a cool .391/.560/.713. That .560 OBP is more than 100 points better than the next guy. He’s also got the single best average in the majors over the last 6 weeks since the break. Going a step further into today’s available statistics, Votto’s hitting more balls hard this year than he did even in 2011, right before he signed the big extension. 37.2% of his balls are hit “hard” compared with just 8.8% hit softly.
Take a step back from all the fun ‘Joey Votto is back’ numbers and you see where the outlook for the Reds is still that a 31-year old with a balky knee is due at least $199 million over the next 8 years. That may seem like a lot of money, and it should. It’s a lot of money, but this is one of the best hitters in baseball. And baseball players make some of the highest annual salaries in professional sports. Votto is due a large payday, but this $199 Million sure feels high.
Luckily for those of us trying to understand the value of a 31-year old All-World first baseman, another 31-year old All-world first baseman was recently a free agent. Albert Pujols was a free agent heading into the 2012 season, and was the same age then that Votto is now. Pujols was undoubtedly a superior player, having finished in the top 10 in MVP voting every year of his career to that point. What have followed have been the 3 worst years of Pujols’ career. 2015 has seen a resurgence for the former-Cardinals slugger, but the current Angels first baseman’s contract is considered among the worst in the game, with 6-years and $165M left.
Votto’s remaining deal, 8-years and $199M, is less than what Pujols signed for in Los Angeles. Even as great as 2015 Votto has been, he is a worse player than 2011 Albert Pujols. So with what we know about the Pujols deal, it seems unlikely that the remaining Votto deal will turn up roses for the Reds. $199 Million is just too much money for a 31-year old.
-Sean Morash
