Over the last two weeks we’ve run a series of posts that were aimed to fully prepare our readers for the forthcoming season. The countdown to baseball season has fallen below a week and your opportunity to fully brace for impact is evaporating quickly. I want to take a moment to ensure that you’ve read the high quality stuff that we put out over the last two weeks and provide a teaser for each of the lists. You’ll see our write-up for the number 2 (or 3) guy on each list, but will have to read the whole article to see who’s number 1.
Top 5 players that You’ve Never Heard Of
- Ketel Marte, SS, Seattle Mariners
I almost included Marte in my position players most likely to break out, but I felt like he was still prospect-y enough to not be breaking out of anything. I’ve included him here since many a stat-maven probably hasn’t heard of Marte. He was among the top 50 position players in the Majors during the most recent half-season, per fWAR. Marte figures to be hitting in front of Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, two guys you have certainly heard of. He’s fast, with 30-40 steal potential. He’s a solid defender at shortstop. And he should be able to hit in the .270-.280 range. That’s the same type of player that described a young Elvis Andrus, and earned Andrus $100 Million.
Top Players Most Likely to Disappoint
2. Daniel Murphy, 2B, Washington Nationals
Somebody was going to over pay Murphy on the basis of his unbelievable post season, where seemingly everything he touched turned into a home run. The Mets were smart enough not to be that team. The Nationals weren’t. Murphy is a defensively challenged second basemen who set a career high with 14 homers last season. Unless he’s about to completely change his career trajectory like Jose Bautista and become a slugger, the $37 million the Nats have committed to spend on him seems a little much for a near 31 year old who has only one season with more than 2 WAR, and that was back in 2011.
Top 10 Guys to Root for This Spring Training
2. Jurickson Profar, IF, Texas Rangers
Profar was once the top prospect in the game. He was a switch-hitting, 20-year old shortstop with power and speed and a solid feel for the game. He had it all. Then, he hurt his shoulder and hasn’t really played in the field since 2013. The shoulder surgeries and extensive rehab make it unlikely that he will make the Majors out of Spring Training, but there’s hope yet for the 23-year old. He made an appearance in the Arizona Fall League last fall and looked good in his time as a DH.
The 10 Most Beautiful Swings in the Game Today
2. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Longo might be past his prime, but the swing is still as beautiful as ever. While other stars may put up more consistent numbers, produce better averages, or simply shine brighter, I would take Longoria’s swing over most others. He’s upright, fluid, and controlled.
- Tony Watson, Pittsburgh Pirates
Tony Watson has quietly been one of baseball’s best relievers over the last 2 years. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been great since breaking into the league in 2011 but 2014 and 2015 were on another level. Two straight years of sub 2 ERA’s, ERA+’s over 200, Sub 3 FIPs, and sub 1 HR/9 rates. His WHIP dipped below 1 last year as well and he’s put up two straight identical 2.5 WAR seasons. All of which are excellent for a guy who only pitched 77.1 and 75.1 innings respectively. Watson is a lefty who last year dominated lefties to a tune of a .186 batting average against and still limited righties to just .212. He carves up lineups in the 8th before handing the game over to Mark Melancon to close it out and he’s among the best at doing it. The Pirates hope to compete for a very tough NL Central title this year and Watson should once again be a huge help in getting them there.
2. Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox
Last year, Porcello was supposed to be one of the anchors of a well balanced Red Sox staff. That didn’t go well. This year, he’s supposed to be a middle of the rotation arm behind a bona fide ace in David Price, and that’s a role that suits him much better. If Porcello is solid and Price is Price, the Red Sox are looking at a pretty good top of the rotation, even if they can’t really count on Clay Buchholz. If he posts another 4.92 ERA over 28 starts, Boston will have a lot of trouble competing in a tough AL East.
Position Players Most Likely to Break Out
- Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Polanco had a similarly disappointing 2015 campaign as Soler, but without the excuse of injury. He’s a 24-year old former top prospect, who struck out a bit too much (121 strikeouts) and got caught stealing a bit too much (10 times). The tools are there for Polanco, and as a 6’5” supremely athletic outfielder, there is reason to believe that he has simply been slow to develop. Further, his OPS improved nearly 100 points from the first to second half last year, and that includes his poor month of September.
Polanco’s value, unlike Soler’s, is tied to more than just his power stroke. With a significant step forward in production from any of his 5-tools, Polanco could go from a 2.6 WAR player to a 4.6 WAR player and be among the top 10 or so outfielders in the majors.
Players with the Most to Prove in 2016
2. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
Stephen Strasburg is as talented as anyone to ever pitch. He’s a former first overall selection, and has the repertoire that should make hitters quiver, but he’s never really put it all together. He finished 9th in the Cy Young voting one year, and was an all star in 2012, but that’s all he has to show for his 5 year career. 2015 was his worst by ERA, but best by K/BB. At 27, can he finally put it all together and run through the National League like Jake Arrieta did last year? Will he ever do that? He’s going to be a free agent after 2016 and he’s presumably going to get paid. It’s just a matter of whether he makes $200 Million, or $80M.
Now go read those articles, and educate yourself. 6 days to baseball season!
