Often, big time baseball decisions are made outside of the public eye. When Alex Rodriguez had worked out a deal to join the Boston Red Sox, before the MLB Players Association vetoed it, the people in the room surely realized that they were witnessing something that would change the course of multiple franchises. A-Rod ultimately joined the evil empire in the New York Yankees and has seen his legacy tarnished amid steroid suspensions, but has amassed 342 homers, a .913 OPS, and secured multiple MVP awards while playing for the team that benefited from the Red Sox deal that wasn’t. The A-Rod story is one of those baseball stories that is simply great to tell at a bar, just like the tale of how the Pittsburgh Pirates stole Roberto Clemente from the Dodgers. But another story recently came out that would have changed the storylines of two franchises greatly over the last two years.
In December 2014, the Atlanta Braves were actively attempting to trade away most of their Major League roster and get back to the “Braves way” of building competitive rosters through homegrown talent. They had two big-time outfielders who were free agents to be and unlikely to re-sign with the Braves and they had a number of bad contract situations that were limiting the team’s ability to field a championship contender. So they picked up the phone and dialed the one organization that always has money, the New York Yankees.
According to this series of Jon Heyman tweets, the two sides discussed a blockbuster deal:
Right before heyward was traded for shelby miller a winter ago, word is yanks tried hard for heyward and andrelton simmons
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 8, 2016
Heyward said he'd heard many times the yanks were close to getting him in 14-15 winter. Others recalled 5-for-5 blockbuster
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 8, 2016
Heyward/simmons/carpenter/bj upton/c Johnson for severino/judge/banuelos/clarkin/sanchez said floated. Nyy didnt pull trigger
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 8, 2016
The idea that the Yankees didn’t pull the trigger indicates that the Braves were the ones who floated the idea. It’s an amazing rumor that would have radically adjusted how both teams went about their business over the last two seasons. The Braves have ultimately sold those pieces off one-by-one and likely have gotten more bang for their buck, while the Yankees have essentially held onto their young talent and appear to be committed to building around those young guys. Let’s take a look at the last 16 months of transactions to realize how drastically different the baseball landscape would have been if the deal had gone through.
The Trades that Definitely Would Not Have Been
- Heyward deal to the Cardinals would not have gone through
Jason Heyward was eventually dealt to the Cardinals, along with Jordan Walden for Tyrell Jenkins and Shelby Miller. I wrote extensively about this deal the day that it happened and believed that the Braves won the trade even if they just got the 2013 version of Shelby Miller. It turns out that the Braves got the 2015 version of Shelby Miller, who was better than all previous known versions of Shelby Miller. The Braves also got their 2015 minor league pitcher of the year out of the deal in the form of Tyrell Jenkins.
So comparing the haul that the Braves actually got for Jason Heyward as compared with who they would have gotten if this deal had gone through…. the Braves likely lucked out that the Yankees had cold feet. While Luis Severino and Ian Clarkin are big time pitching prospects, neither was as established as Shelby Miller or that drastically more highly regarded than Tyrell Jenkins.
2. The Cardinals would not have received a compensatory pick for Jason Heyward signing with the Cubs
Maybe Heyward would have signed elsewhere following a season in the Bronx. It’s hard to imagine him posting higher than the 6.5 WAR that he did last year if he had been with the Yankees. Either way, we know that the Cardinals would not be reaping the benefits of the qualifying offer system had Heyward spent time in pinstripes.
3. Braves would not have traded Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks
Obviously, the Braves would not have completed the Heyward/Cardinals deal and then would not have had the 2015 Shelby Miller that the Diamondbacks coveted four months ago. By all accounts, the Braves fleeced the Diamondbacks in acquiring Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte, and Aaron Blair.
Sure, the Braves also sent young pitcher Gabe Speier to the Diamondbacks, but this deal would not have been possible if the Yankees/Braves floated deal had gone through. This is just the extension of the win that the Braves got in the first Shelby Miller deal.
4. Manny Banuelos and David Carpenter would have still have switched organizations
After that blockbuster fell through, the Braves and Yankees still agreed on a deal that sent Banuelos to Atlanta and David Carpenter to New York. The Yankees also got lefty reliever Chasen Shreve in the deal, and he could be the best of the bunch.
5. BJ (Melvin) Upton would not be a Padre
This is where you start to realize how many of their unwanted birds (perceived organizational albatrosses) the Braves were trying to kill with this one trade stone. With this blockbuster, the Braves were trying to both simultaneously shed salary and improve their stable of young talent.
The Craig Kimbrel to the Padres trade was possible because the Padres agreed to take on Melvin Upton’s contract. The whole trade was that the Atlanta Braves traded Upton with Craig Kimbrel to the San Diego Padres for Jordan Paroubeck (minors), Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin, Matt Wisler and 2015 competitive balance round A pick, who turned into Austin Riley.
6. Craig Kimbrel may not have been a Red Sox
With the Kimbrel/Upton trade, the Padres made clear their ill-founded strategy to “go for it.” 2015 resulted in a 74-88 mark for the Padres and they decided to trade their all-world closer. Kimbrel is now preparing for the season with the Red Sox and the Padres have themselves 4 new prospects: Logan Allen, Javier Guerra, Manuel Margot, and Carlos Asuaje.
7. Chris Johnson would not be a Cleveland Indian
After Johnson was not dealt to the Yankees, he was dealt to the Cleveland Indians for Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. Recently, he was released. Nick Swisher was released by the Braves on March 28th. The deal was a swap of overpriced veterans, and both sides quickly fell out of love with their rusty veterans.
8. Andrelton Simmons would not have been an Angel
In the proposed deal, Simmons would have been the new heir to the Derek Jeter shortstop throne at Yankee Stadium. Simmons is signed through 2020 and could have provided the Yankees with far more defense than they are accustomed. He would not be out west trying to get Mike Trout into the playoffs proper. By the same token, the secondary players in the real-life Simmons deal would not have made their way from Anaheim to Atlanta. Those guys were Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb, and Erick Aybar.
The Deals that Would Have Made No Sense in a Post-Yankee-Heyward World
9. Didi Gregorius would not be a Yankee
The Yankees would have had their 3+ WAR defensive-minded right handed hitting shortstop and would not have dealt for another one. They would not have pulled the complex 3-team trade trigger that led to Shane Greene in Detroit and Robbie Ray in Arizona with Domingo Leyba tagging along for moral support.
10. Jean Segura would not be a Diamondback, probably
Maybe the Diamondbacks would have found a different home for Didi Gregorius, or maybe he would have stayed in Arizona. But in this hypothetical, it seems most likely that the Diamondbacks would not have found the need to replace a shortstop that they never traded. (How’s that for double negatives?) Anyway, since we’re leaving Gregorius in Arizona, we’re also leaving Segura in Milwaukee. Which means we also have to leave Tyler Wagner in Milwaukee, since he was part of the package that landed Segura. We also should leave Isan Diaz, Chase Anderson, and Aaron Hill in Arizona, since they were in the Segura deal, too.
11. Jeff Francouer would not be a Brave, maybe
This might be my favorite repercussion of the non-deal. It is somewhat predicated on the idea that Hector Olivera still manages to find his way to the outfield in Atlanta. With Aaron Judge and Hector Olivera in the fold for the Braves, I have a hard time believing that Francouer would wind up making the roster. Maybe he would have, as part of an early season Aaron Judge in AAA because of the arbitration system scheme. But it’s hard to imagine the Braves fielding an outfield of… wait, who would be in the Braves outfield otherwise? Well… what was it last year?
#Braves Opening Day lineup: Young CF, Peterson 2B, Markakis RF, Freeman 1B, Bethancourt C, KJohnson LF, Callaspo 3B, Simmons SS, Teheran P
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienAJC) April 6, 2015
Oh… So that’s Eric Young Jr, Nick Markakis, and Kelly Johnson? In a world where the Braves have Aaron Judge, but maybe no Hector Olivera and definitely no Ender Inciarte, Jeff Francouer still could have found his way onto the Braves roster. Damnit.
So Where are the Organizations now?
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta ultimately went through with their fire sale and added a stockpile of prospects. If the deal had gone through, Atlanta would likely have had a similar outlook for 2016, but a less rosey picture in 2017 and beyond. Let’s say you’re a Braves fan and can pick a package:
- Tyrell Jenkins, Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, Sean Newcomb, Matt Wisler, with Erick Aybar and Craig Kimbrel
- Luis Severino and Aaron Judge.
If I’m a Braves fan (and I am), I would much rather be in the current position that the team finds itself. Sure, there would still be other moves to be made, with similar returns likely for Justin Upton and Evan Gattis. But who knows if Craig Kimbrel would still be a Brave and what type of return the Braves could have received if he were shipped out unattached to BJ Upton. The Padres wound up with 3-4 legitimate prospects when Kimbrel landed in Boston.
The lesson? It’s simple; trust the process.
New York Yankees
These trades aren’t made in a vacuum and the Yankees were presumably trying to win in 2015. Even still, Yankee fans should be breathing a sigh of relief that this deal never went down.
Sure, Jason Heyward would have been nice last season and certainly an improvement over that Carlos Beltran statue the Yanks currently have standing out in right in the Bronx now but in all likelihood, Heyward would have been a one and done guy for the Yankees the same way he was for St. Louis.
On top of that, Melvin Upton would have been a disaster in New York. The 2015 Yankee outfield would have been some amalgam of Upton, Heyward, Beltran, Brett Gardner, and Jacoby Ellsbury, all with an arguable case to start based either on salary or performance. The most likely outcome would have been Upton and Chris Young in left, Ellsbury in center, and Heyward in right with Beltran stealing DH at bats from the resurgent Alex Rodriguez and Gardner playing for some other team, as he’s really the only guy of the bunch with realistic trade value.
After Heyward bolted, that would have left New York with an overpayed and awful Upton, an oft-injured Ellsbury, and Beltran in the outfield for this season. Granted, not too far off from where they’re at now but definitely a downgrade.
Let’s ignore Carpenter, a fine bullpen piece, and focus on the infielders for a second. Even though Chase Headley turned in an awful 2015, he’s still much better than Chris Johnson, who just got cut by the Indians. So that’s a win.
The most interesting player in the deal is Simmons. At first blush, he’d be a great Yankee shortstop. He’s the game’s best with the glove and has a long term, team friendly contract. However, given the great year Didi Gregorius turned in on both sides of the ball, can you really say that upgrading to Simmons, if it is really that much of an upgrade, would be worth such a hefty price tag? And let’s not kid ourselves, the talent going back to Atlanta in this trade is without a doubt the cream of the Yankee crop.
There isn’t a throw in in the bunch. Severino is a big league caliber starter, some think even a number 2 type guy in the long term. Judge is the Yankees top position player prospect, a huge outflielder with otherworldly power and a guy to build a lineup around. Banuelos…. ok well Banuelos is a bit of a throw in, but he used to a top prospect! Ian Clarkin is arguably the top pitching prospect in the Yankee system and at the very least likely to be a solid reliever, and Gary Sanchez has been the catcher of the future since he was 16! Sanchez is one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball; he’s an offense first guy at a position that rarely produces anything in the lineup.
On balance, from a Yankee point of view, there isn’t one piece coming I’d either want to have or feel confident having more than a year and there isn’t one piece going I’d actually want to part with. This trade makes a lot more sense if the Yankees were one small piece from being the unequivocal best team in baseball and were absolutely going for it in 2015. That, however, was very far from the case.
So all told, besides the players actually involved in this “floated” deal, here’s the list of players whose career paths were directly influenced by the non-deal:
- Jordan Walden
- Tyrell Jenkins
- Shelby Miller
- 2016 draft pick No. 34
- Aaron Blair
- Dansby Swanson
- Ender Inciarte
- Gabe Speier
- Chasen Shreve
- Craig Kimbrel
- Jordan Paroubeck
- Cameron Maybin
- Carlos Quentin
- Matt Wisler
- Austin Riley
- Logan Allen
- Javier Guerra
- Manuel Margot
- Carlos Asuaje
- Michael Bourn
- Nick Swisher
- Chris Ellis
- Sean Newcomb
- Erick Aybar
- Didi Gregorius
- Shane Greene
- Robbie Ray
- Domingo Leyba
- Jean Segura
- Tyler Wagner
- Isan Diaz
- Chase Anderson
- Aaron Hill
- Carlos Beltran
- Brett Gardner
-Sean Morash
