Let’s play a game: Imagine you run a baseball team; a good baseball team; one that’s playing well and has aspirations of playing deep into October. Now imagine you have a prospect at a premiere position, tearing up AAA, who’s seen MLB service time in (small) parts of two seasons, with well above average defensive ability, superior on base skills, and speed to steal upwards of 40 bases. Imagine your MLB starter at the same position is a former utility player who has hit well enough in the last couple weeks to pull his average up to .214, and whose single redeeming trait is the moderate power that’s begotten 13 homers this season.
What reason would you have for not promoting the minor leaguer and starting him over the glorified utility player? This isn’t a trick question; I’m genuinely curious. What possible reason would there be for not promoting the clearly superior player?
Ok, game over. You don’t have to imagine this situation because it’s playing out, in real life, in our nations’ capitol. The prospect’s name is Trea Turner, the premium position is shortstop, and the Washington Nationals have still not promoted him to replace the forlorn relic that is Danny Espinosa. This defies all logic. (After the Nats did promote Turner a couple weeks ago, he went 3-3 (!) in his one start before being benched for 2 games and then sent back to the minors.)
Turner, a 23 year old former first rounder, can’t do much more to prove he’s mastered AAA. He’s batting .295 and has stolen 22 bases in 23 attempts. Espinosa, a 29 year old who has been primarily a second basemen in his career and hasn’t really been a full time starter since 2012, is best suited as a high quality utility infielder. He has pop and can play a variety of positions; he gets hot for stretches and can be a valuable contributor. He is also overmatched as an everyday starter, especially at shortstop. He strikes out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances and his 85 wRC+ positions him as a squarely below average hitter– even at shortstop, where the league average wRC+ is 92.
There is no rational universe where Danny Espinosa should be starting and Trea Turner shouldn’t even get a roster spot.
Dusty Baker, the Nationals frustrating manger, usually answers the frequent ‘Where is Trea Turner?’ questions he gets with some mumbly line about how you don’t mess with success. The Nationals have a 5.5 game lead over the Mets and Marlins, and have the 3rd best record in the National League. Fair, but since when is ‘eh, we’re already pretty good’ a justification for not playing your best players in pro sports?
I know what you’re thinking: Super 2! But the answer to the Turner riddle has nothing to do with salary management and arbitration clocks, either. We’re past all that. At this point, Turner cannot accrue enough playing time to qualify for arbitration a year early, so it’s not like the Nats are saving any real money by letting him tear apart minor league pitching as opposed to the Phillies.
It simply doesn’t make any sense. With Turner, the Nats would have one of the more formidable all around infields in baseball.
At third base, Anthony Rendon struggles with injuries and inconsistency, but has shown the potential to be one of the better 2 hitters in baseball. A former 6th overall pick, Rendon finished 5th in the MVP balloting while posting a 6.6 WAR in 2014. He’s got power and low double digit steals speed and plays a great defense. When he’s rolling, he can carry a team.
At second, Washington has Daniel Murphy. I panned the Murphy signing in the winter when the Nats made it, but Daniel was hitting .400 not too long ago and he still leads the NL with a .352 average and 93 hits. Sean actually mentioned on Opening Day just how Murphy could be a huge asset to the Nats, even with the slightly inflated paycheck.
At first, Ryan Zimmerman isn’t near what he once was, but is still a pretty good first basemen. He’s got some pop and is solid defensively.
Coupled with the Nationals’ 4 solid outfield options in Bryce Harper, Ben Revere, Jayson Werth, and Michael A. Taylor, Washington has one of the deeper lineups in baseball.
That’s why this is so frustrating. There’s such a clear and easy upgrade to Washington’s weakest position, yet he’s sitting in AAA.
Let’s compare possible lineups.
With Danny Espinosa:
- Ben Revere cf
- Anthony Rendon 3b
- Bryce Harper rf
- Daniel Murphy 2b
- Ryan Zimmerman 1b
- Jayson Werth lf
- Wilson Ramos c
- Danny Espinosa ss
Bleh.
With Trea Turner:
- Ben Revere cf
- Anthony Rendon 3b
- Bryce Harper rf
- Daniel Murphy 2b
- Ryan Zimmerman 1b
- Jayson Werth lf
- Wilson Ramos c
- Trea Turner ss
WOW. Look at that lineup. Power, speed, it’s got it all! The Nationals are a real contender with that second batting order.
Turner’s much deserved call-up won’t turn Bryce Harper back into the most feared hitter in baseball. It won’t make Jayson Werth consistent. It won’t make Ryan Zimmerman strikeout less. All of those developments would be more important to the Nats’ World Series chances than turning a .200 average with power in the 8 hole into a .270 average with 25-30 steals.
Turner isn’t the panacea to all that ails Washington, but he’s much better than what they have now. There’s no reason he shouldn’t get a shot to prove it.
-Max Frankel
