Every year, Baseball America publishes a Top 100 Prospects list before the season begins. MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus come up with their own lists as well, and baseball fans around the country think they know the whole prospect story. But there’s a lot more to The Farm than a top 100 can cover, and many impact players remain anonymous until they reach the majors. In this article, we’ll look at five hitting prospects producing at higher levels than their notoriety would suggest. (We’ll do pitchers next week.)
Here are the criteria we’re working with: The players discussed in this article have never appeared on a top 100 list, Baseball America’s Top 10 prospects by team rankings, or MLB.com’s Top 10 by position. The list is in no particular order, and includes each player’s position, team, age and minor league level, as well as what rank they currently hold in MLB.com’s Top 30 Prospects by team. We also include the cumulative 2016 season’s stats of each prospect (entering play Friday, June 24) for reference. More weight has been given to those players at the higher levels of the minors, as they are facing tougher competition and are closer to the big leagues.
For one reason or another, whether it be a lower ceiling than their peers, or lack of any dominating tools, these players have been deemed unworthy of any significant recognition. That, however, does not mean that they cannot develop into useful big leaguers.
OF Greg Allen, CLE, A adv, Age 23, Organization Rank: 22
237 AB, 11 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 61 Runs, 43 BB, 39 K, 34 SB, .291/.427/.392
Beginning the 2016 season in Lynchburg, at the same level that he finished last season, Greg Allen has been raking. Sure, he is a bit older than the competition and doesn’t hit for much power, but he is a switch hitter with very good on-base skills. This season, he has more walks than strikeouts, which contributes to an outstanding .427 OBP. Furthermore, while always having put up good stolen base totals because of his above-average speed, this season has seen Allen refine his stolen base skills, tallying 34 SB to 4 CS, a blistering 89%. According to MLB.com’s prospect profile, Allen is still developing as a centerfielder with the potential to be an above average defender along with a leadoff hitter at the MLB level.
INF T.J. Rivera, NYM, AAA, Age 27, Organization Rank: 29
237 AB, 15 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 52 RBI, 13 BB, 31 K, 1 SB, .363/.402/.523
A player who hasn’t made it to the major leagues yet at the age of 27 can be easy to discount, but Rivera, who can play second base, third base, or shortstop, may be able to find a spot on a Mets roster that has been hurt by injuries in 2016. None of Rivera’s tools are great, but he has shown the ability to make solid contact and put up high batting averages. In fact, entering the 2016 season, he had a career batting average of .318. As if that hasn’t been enough, Rivera, through 60 games this season, owns a .363 AVG at the Triple-A level. Once he returns from the 7-day concussion DL, look for Rivera to press for major league playing time as a utility player down the stretch.
1B Brian Mundell, COL, A, Age 22, Organization Rank: 30
282 AB, 35 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 44 RBI, 55 R, 27 BB, 40K, 4 SB, .344/.399/.528
The 22-year old Mundell won’t wow anybody with his glove, but he could make it to the big leagues on the merits of his bat alone. Right-handed home runs are hard to come by, and even though Mundell only has 5 so far in 2016 at A ball, he has 35 doubles, which bumps his SLG% to .528 and his OPS to .928. At 6’3” and 230 pounds, it is not unreasonable to believe that Mundell can start to turn some of those doubles into home runs with more development. If he can make it to the big leagues with even just average power as a first baseman, Coors Field would likely pad his homerun numbers into above-average territory.
SS Adam Frazier, PIT, AAA, Age 24, Organization Rank: 27
261 AB, 16 2B, 4 3B, 0 HR, 22 RBI, 34 R, 29 BB, 27 K, 17 SB, .333/.401/.425
Frazier may be listed as a shortstop, but really he is developing as a super-utility player, having seen time at second, third, and all three outfield positions. Batting from the left side, Frazier has little power, but he does possess great on-base skills. Accumulating more walks than strikeouts at the Triple-A level is no small feat. While numbers of this level are unlikely to continue once Frazier reaches the majors, his knowledge of the strike zone should only translate better, allowing him to put up competitive at-bats. A comparison that comes to mind when discussing Frazier’s skills is Brock Holt, whom the Pirates actually traded to the Red Sox back in 2012 in a deal for Mark Melancon. If he can become a utility man similar to what Holt has been, then the Pirates will not be complaining.
1B Alex Dickerson, SDP, AAA, Age 26, Organization Rank: 22
206 AB, 16 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 49 R, 14 BB, 25 K, .383/.428/.626
Dickerson is the only player on this list who has spent any amount of time in the majors, albeit for only 18 at-bats across 19 games the past two seasons. Though listed as a first baseman, Dickerson ran into trouble fielding the position and has been moved back to the corner outfield in 2016. Even in the outfield though, he profiles as a below-average big league player according to MLB.com, as he can hit line drives to all fields, but lacks significant homerun power. Still, with only an 11.1% strikeout rate, a .383 average and a .626 slugging percentage at Triple-A in 2016, there is still reason to believe that Dickerson can supply just enough power to become a solid bench bat, if not an MLB regular.
-Alex Vacca
Statistics courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs.com. Header photo courtesy of http://elpasoheraldpost.com/i-cubs-comeback/
