Last year, our editor at Off the Bench was selling the parts of his fantasy baseball team in a tank-job that would make the Braves proud, and he could not find a taker for DJ LeMahieu. He pleaded with everyone, laid out that the second baseman was a .300 hitter and a top 100 fantasy player, but nobody bit. He was disgruntled, and accused us of malificence, ignorance, or some combination therein, but the reality is that none of us believed in DJ LeMahieu. He was a product of Coors and had put together a solid half season of fantasy relevance. He was a good player, sure; He provided value with his glove and hit plenty to stay relevant, but he didn’t stick out as someone who would bring our squads closer to eternal fantasy glory (especially not as a keeper).
Fast forward one year and LeMahieu is again hitting above .300, but this time he is all the way up at .344 and leading the league. He’s hitting for power, too. At age 27, DJ already has more doubles (25), triples (7), and homers (10) than he has had in any previous season. All of that adds up to a .915 OPS and a 125 OPS+ that equates to a player that is 25% above average offensively.
Is this new LeMahieu the real LeMahieu? In his previous 5 seasons and 526 games in the big leagues, he managed just 15 home runs and a .699 OPS. This year’s performance appears to be fueled at least in part by the thin air of Coors Field. DJ has hit .400 and has 70% of his extra base hits at home. Coors has been DJ’s home park for a few years now, so this offensive maturation cannot all be chalked up to the Mile High Stadium, and LeMahieu has actually been an above average offensive contributor on the road this season as well.
The Rockies have a lot more to figure out with LeMahieu than if his offensive performance this year is the new norm: They need to figure out what he’s worth to other teams, too. The Rockies have a very solid left side of the infield, with MVP candidate Nolan Arenado manning third and Rookie of the year candidate Trevor Story at shortstop. They also have last year’s third overall pick, Brendan Rodgers on the way as well. Rodgers is just 19, but hit extremely well in A-ball this year and could be ready by sometime next season. The Rockies will soon have too many infielders deserving of playing time.
LeMahieu seems the most likely to be floated in trade talks. Do other teams value him for what he is now? He has basically the same WAR as Jake Arrieta! Will the Rockies experience the same frustrations that Ari did in his failed trade talks a year ago? I’m really not sure. I simply don’t know how to value this new DJ LeMahieu. I feel like other teams will feel similarly and want to wait another half season for LeMahieu’s progression before making their earnest bids.
This puts us in a July, 2017 bidding war for the Rockies second baseman. Regardless of where the Rockies are in the standings, they will be likely to shop LeMahieu as Rodgers’ presence will make to potential loss of their All-Star second baseman palatable. With that, there are two distinct scenarios that will dictate what the Rockies will be able to fetch.
LeMahieu Continues to Hit Exceptionally
Imagining a scenario where a Gold Glove winning second baseman with a .900+ OPS is available at the Trade Deadline is fun. DJ simply has to hit like he has this year again to solidify his place as someone who can bring a fringe playoff team over the top. He’s under contract through 2018 and would presumably fetch a fortune as a savior to a team on the outside looking in at a playoff spot. The Rockies would of course be searching for pitching in return as their eternal struggle to find arms continues.
Would the White Sox be willing to trade one of their big three starters? Probably not. Would the Mets be willing to trade one of their stable of starters? Possibly, depending on where Neil Walker ends up at season’s end. A LeMahieu-to-the-Dodgers trade makes a lot of sense in a situation like this. The Dodgers may even be aggressive on DJ this offseason as they look to replace Chase Utley.
Bottom line – if LeMahieu continues to hit and the Rockies make him available, teams will call. He will be an instant upgrade for a contender in need of some life and the Rockies will be in a position of power. A midsummer bidding war for an expendable piece is a midsummer’s night’s dream for GMs.
LeMahieu Returns to Who He Was
DJ showed signs of this outbreak a year ago, but the power numbers are new and would certainly not be as enticing without the Coors Effect. The margins in the big leagues are slim and opposing GM’s would be a lot more “meh” about LeMahieu if he was walking around next summer with his 2015 stat line.
If Neil Walker fetched Jon Niese, then a “meh” DJ LeMahieu is not going to bring the Rockies the impact pitching that they want and need.
It’s a simple situation really. Soon, LeMahieu will be expendable to a Rockies team that needs all of the pitching. If other teams value him as the star that his 2016 numbers seem to indicate, then the Rockies rotation will get a large upgrade. If his performance slips, with this season the outlier, the Rockies won’t be getting anything more exciting than a lump of coal when they ship him out.
-Sean Morash
