Blogging. Putting your thoughts out there for everyone to see. Also: dedicating possibly undue energy to the consideration of obscure players. OTBB functions in part as a forum for advocacy on behalf of for our most irrationally favorite players. We make bold predictions that are mostly nothing; we let our personal preferences influence our analyses. Worse still, we often veil those transgressions in statistics that seem to back them up. Sometimes we look awesome, and other times we get exposed. You just can’t predict baseball. There was a tie in a game last night!
With that, our preseason #OffTheRankings are still out there for all the world to see (along with this misguided Anthony Rizzo/Casey Kotchman tweet). So let’s take a look at how I did in selecting the position players most likely to break out. The original post is from March, and you’re more than welcome to read that too.
The top 10 breakout hitters of 2016 (aka Sean’s fantasy sleepers of 2016):
- Corey Dickerson, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Things are not off to a good start. I think my thought process on Dickerson was strong: an .879 career OPS, moving to the AL where he may be shielded from lingering injuries by resting at DH. He’s remained mostly healthy and so he has posted career highs in doubles, games played, and plate appearances. However, the OPS is down to .767 and his OBP is well below average at .296. Basically, Dickerson has really struggled with the strikeouts this year and has taken a big step backwards as an all-around player.
- Randal Grichuk, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Again, we’re not off to a good start. Grichuk, 24, did not improve over his nice little breakout last year. He spent a month in the minors in an attempt to find command of the strikezone once again. It didn’t work. The power is still there and he appears capable of manning center field– he’s likely still a valuable player– but I may have been a year early in predicting his breakout.
- David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Want a quiet reason why the Diamondbacks’ 2016 was a disaster? David Peralta went from a 4 win player, to missing most of the year. He didn’t break out this year because… well…. he spent most of the year on the disabled list. The Diamondbacks were bad for a whole host of reasons, but Peralta’s injuries really impacted the outfield depth that the D’backs thought would carry the team. The Diamondbacks outfield has gone from leading the majors in WAR last year to being last, with a -0.1 WAR this year.
- Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
Calling the reigning rookie of the year runner up a “break out candidate” seems a bit like cheating. While Lindor has not come out of the shadow of Carlos Correa, or Addison Russel just yet, and he seems to have been overcome by the Corey Seager show, he’s still put up a .300 batting average and is third among shortstops in WAR at age 22. He’s legit and will be for a long time.
- Adam Eaton, OF, Chicago White Sox
I’m counting this one as a decided ‘W for Sean.’ Eaton has put up maybe the quietest 6.0 WAR season ever. He’s just a solid all around baseball player and these types of guys do not get the media going. Consider: He’s been worth 17 runs on offense, 17 runs on defense, and 4.5 on the bases. The only other players worth 10 on offense, 10 on defense, and 3.5 on the bases are: Ender Inciarte, Kris Bryant, Ian Kinsler, and Mookie Betts. Expect a flood of “Adam Eaton is Underrated” posts soon.
5. Odubel Herrera, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
I picked the wrong Philadelphia Philly breakout, but Odubel posted another solid year. He didn’t exactly improve on his 2015 performance, but it’s hard to scoff at a .366 OBP with 15 homers and 25 steals. He’s still just 24 and could wind up back on this list next spring.
- Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs
Soler hasn’t broken out fully because he has been hampered by injuries, but I am counting 2016 as a step forward for the 24 year old Cuban. Since returning from the disabled list in July, Soler has had just 110 plate appearances, but has hit 7 homers and gotten on base at a .350 clip. He seems likely to get a chance somewhere next year and I hope he makes the best of it.
- Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins
Here we go! I noted in my write-up from March that “Yelich was a prime breakout candidate last year, but spent some time on the disabled list…” That sounds like most of the rest of this list so far. Maybe I was just a year to early on the guys that I missed on. Yelich finally tapped into his power potential and maintained his solid on base ability. He’s hit 20 homers this year, so if he hits one more then he will double his career total from prior to this year. He cut down on his steal attempts, but he’s finally coming into his own.
- Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Polanco had a long way to go in the 2015 season, but took steps forward this year. He still hasn’t put it all together, likely due in part to striking out in 20% of his plate appearances though he still has a tantalizing all-around ability. He has struggled through nagging injuries in the second half (neck, hamstring, wrist), but his first half numbers show what he is capable of: .287 average, .362 OBP, and .500 slugging. I wanted Polanco to go from a 2.3 WAR player to a 4.3 player. He hasn’t made quite that improvement, going only to 2.8. I’m putting him on my 2016 breakout list again.
- Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
Swihart was a complete whiff. Sure, he has been hurt, but he got more at bats in AAA than in the Majors this year. Further, the Red Sox seem to have fallen out of love with Swihart’s catcher defense. His future prospects as a major leaguer rapidly decline if his bat is expected to carry him as an outfielder. Unlike most of the other names on this list, Swihart’s future as even a Major League regular came into question in 2016. It juts simply wasn’t the type of year that I anticipated nor the type of year that Blake had hoped for.
-Sean Morash
