National’s Trea Turner Is the 12th Most Valuable Player in Baseball
Yesterday, Sean wrote about players most likely to make the jump from really good to best-in-league caliber. He said that about halfway through the post he realized Trea Turner was in a league of his own.
Sean described Turner as “a speed-first guy, with surprising pop that really seemed to show up at the Big League level.” He posted a 3.3 WAR in 323 PAs last season, stealing 33 bases and batting .324 to go along with 13 homers as a second basemen, shortstop, and center fielder.
Essentially, he set the league on fire.
Even if you include his 40 AB cup of coffee in 2015, Turner’s 162 game pace has him hitting 23 homers and stealing 57 bases. He’s 23. Yes, he played only 73 games last year, but at an unreal pace of almost 9 WAR.
So…how valuable is Trea Turner, a shortstop/centerfielder who steals bases, hits homers, and gets on at a nearly .370 clip? Well, let’s take a look at Fangraphs mid-season Trade Value exercise to find out.
In that piece, Dave Cameron, who is great, ranks the top 50 MLB players in order of their possible trade value. Cameron considers value in light of contract terms and performance. The idea is that if you had the player ranked 25th you would gladly trade him straight up for anyone ranked 24th or better, but wouldn’t for anyone ranked 26th or lower. Turner didn’t make the cut for the original list because he’d barely played any major league games when it came out. Plus, he hadn’t set the league on fire just yet.
We’ve already established that Turner is really good and we know that he has 5 more seasons of team control, at least two more of them at pre-arbitration prices– baseball’s equivalent of minimum wage. It seemingly doesn’t get much better than that, so let’s take Cameron’s midseason piece to consider where Turner might land if the list were reissued today.
Would the Angels trade Mike Trout straight up for Trea Turner? No, certainly not. Trout is an all time great talent locked up through most of his prime. He’s the best player in baseball by a lot. It’s not an insult to Trea that he’s less valuable.
Ok, so number 2. Would the Astros trade Carlos Correa for Turner? No, I don’t think they would. Correa is actually a year younger than Turner and plays the same position. Carlos has more power and that’s valuable from shortstop. They actually are in the same contract situation, but since Correa has more time in the majors, including winning the Rookie of the Year in 2015, there’s less uncertainty there. Moving on.
Let’s speed this up and take a look at some notable players on the way to where we think Turner fits. [Editor’s Note: Max skipped Kris Bryant for apparently no reason. Bryant is certainly not leaving Wrigleyville anytime soon– he might be the most valuable player in baseball right now.]
Number 4 on the list is Corey Seager. He’s a great comparison player for Turner since they are both NL shortstops who played their rookie seasons this year. Seager will win NL Rookie of the Year, but he played the entire season. He hit 26 homers and batted .308. That amounts to less than Turner’s 162-game pace, but Seager gets points for actually doing it.
If Turner puts up another season next year like he did this year, there is an argument to be made that he will be more valuable than Corey Seager. Sure, Seager has more power potential and is about a year younger, but Turner is much faster, more athletic, and can play more positions.
But we are doing this exercise now, and it deals with reality not hypothetical. We need to keep moving down this list. Let’s fast forward to numbers 12 and 13, Noah Syndergaard and Jose Altuve. Syndergaard, the best starter on the Mets, has one more season before he’s arbitration eligible and is projected for between 4 and 5 WAR every year for the next 5 years.
Altuve is 26 and makes around $5.5 million on average over the next three seasons. He’s projected to have a little more than 5 WAR per year over that span. I would rather have Trea Turner than Jose Altuve right now, without a doubt. Altuve is great, a perennial batting title contender and a great second basemen. But not as valuable as Turner.
I had to think about it for a minute or two, but I think I would rather have Turner than Syndergaard, too. Thor is great, but position players are more valuable than pitchers overall and Trea has the potential to be a special one. Plus, there’s the whole pitchers are fragile thing.
I think I’m slotting Trea Turner in at number 12 on a list of the most valuable players in baseball. That is right behind Manny Machado, and ahead of Syndergaard with the understanding that he has the potential to rocket up this list if next year looks anything like this season did.
Whether I’m right or wrong, it’s inarguable that the Nationals got a pretty great deal when they gave up Steven Souza and a prospect for Turner and real-life big league starter Joe Ross in 2014.
-Max Frankel
