Where The Internet Thinks The MLB Free Agents Will Sign (30-16)
Last week, Off The Bench opened up our MLB Free Agent Predictor contest to the public. Max and I had a great time guessing where last year’s stars would end up, so we imagined that other baseball nerds would have a similarly good time. We offered up a $20 reward to whoever turns out to be the most accurate prognosticator and we circulated our little form around. After the first day, we had 27 people signed up. I never even expected that many. Truthfully, I figured we would get about 5 of our friends to join us and prepared the infrastructure to support the competition as such. I realized that I hadn’t even set a goal; so I set 50 as a good goal.
Well, we ended up with 109 responses!
My poor coding ability was no match for the volume of responses we received. Take a look at the Top 30 Free Agent Standings page and you’ll see just how I did not properly prepare for this many interested parties. That thing is clunky.
The good part about getting 109 responses is that now we have data! Annually, Fangraphs does a contract crowdsourcing to try to use the power of the internet to determine where, for how long, and for how much free agents will sign. We have done the same thing, but we’ve given people a carrot to dream for: $20 and the sweet pleasure of victory.
Rather than hoard all of that data and build a shrine to the fact that I got 109 people on the internet to do something, I opted to share it here with a little note about each player. These are the bottom half of the top 30 rankings. The top half will run tomorrow.
16 Wade Davis and 17 Clay Buchholz
Both had their options picked up by their employers. The Royals decision was easy. The Red Sox decision to pick up Clay Buchholz’ $13.5M option was not so straightforward. I certainly didn’t think he was worth that kind of money.
18. Doug Fister (33)
If I had to do this over again, Fister would be lower in our rankings, but here he is. The 33 year old just turned in 180 innings of 4.60 ERA for Houston. He’s not going to be a coveted free agent since he doesn’t strike many guys out, but he’s a reliable 5th starter, who finished 8th in the Cy Young voting in 2014. He needs to pitch in front of a solid defense and The Internet has no idea where that might be. In LA, he could fill the Jared Weaver role of slow-throwing right hander on Mike Scoscia’s club. 
19. Colby Rasmus
Rasmus surprised many last year when he took the Astros’ qualifying offer. By doing so, he took a $15.8M one year deal. Then, in 2016, he posted a .286 OBP and slugged far fewer home runs. He has a ton of power and is left handed. I like him to the Angels, but the internet seems to think an Astros reunion is more likely.
20. Matt Holiday (36)
Holliday signed a $100+ Million deal back in 2010 and was really worth the money in St. Louis. He’s 36 now and didn’t play great this past year while battling injuries, but he’s just 1 year removed from an All-Star selection and two years removed from MVP votes. When right, he’s an on-base machine. The internet doesn’t really seem to know where he’s going and neither do I. An AL team makes sense because he can DH in that league, but that still leaves about 15 squads as viable options.
21. Neil Walker (31)
Walker is a heavy favorite to land back in New York, where he excelled in 2016. He seems like a prime candidate to make more money than he should as part of a weak free agent class. We had one estimate come in as high as a 5 year/$96 million deal. He’s a solid offense-first second baseman, who has consistently been worth between 2 and 3 WAR. If that nets nearly $100 million, color me surprised. I think a $60M deal isn’t ridiculous, however.
22. Yunel Escobar (34)
Escobar just had his 2017 option picked up by the Angels, but a majority of our guessers thought he would depart via free agency. Undoubtedly, Yunel would have gotten a better deal if he were able to reach free agency this year, but the Angels locked him up.
23. Mark Trumbo (31)
Trumbo picked a great time to lead the Majors with 47 homers: right before he hits free agency. Potential employers will be lured by that figure, and that figure alone. He doesn’t get on base much, and doesn’t play defense well. Still, Baltimore and Toronto seem to be the two most likely destinations. What’s more fun is the variance in his contract. A 4 year deal worth about $65M seems to be the median. This is basically Nelson Cruz 2.0. The problem I have here is that I just don’t believe Trumbo is as good as Cruz.
24. Brandon Moss (33)
If Trumbo is a poor man’s Nelson Cruz, then Moss is a poor man’s Trumbo. He hits for power against right handed pitching. He does that well. I covered that back in 2013. He’s still the same. What does that get you in free agency? Apparently a 2 year deal worth about $22-$24M. I like the fit in Chicago, but I also think he could try to follow the Cruz/Trumbo route and hit some homers next year in Baltimore.
25. Chase Utley (38)
Utley managed to post 2.0 bWAR in 2016 as part of the Dodgers. He’s no longer the player that he once was, but apparently he’s passable. At this point, a one year deal or a retirement ceremony seem to be his most likely options. Beyond that? I hope he likes LA because the internet seems to think he’s staying out there.
26. Pedro Alvarez (30)
I voted for Alvarez to sign in Tampa but that was mostly a guess. I like how this “Unsigned” contingent is thinking. El Torro signed in mid-March last year and is still the same player. Will he get more than the 1-year/$5.75M deal that he has gotten each of the last two offseasons? Maybe? Will he sign in Baltimore? Maybe.
27. Gio Gonzalez (31)
The Nationals picked up their $12M option on Gio.
28. Greg Holland (30)
Holland just threw for scouts and apparently looked good. He didn’t pitch this year while recovering from elbow surgery, but he was one of the game’s very best relievers when healthy. The internet has him on a 1-2 year deal with any of the major market clubs, plus his old squad in KC. This type of deal makes sense for Holland as it provides him with an opportunity to re-establish himself before hitting free agency again in a year or two.
29. Wilson Ramos (29)
Ramos put together a great year in Washington and the Internet doesn’t seem to think he will be going anywhere. A 4-year deal worth $55 million seems to be the median guess for Ramos. That seems about right, but I’m prepared for a few wild contracts this offseason. I think Ramos is another who will get more than he otherwise might because of the weak class.
30.Andrew Cashner (30)
Cashner is a tough one to peg. He’s famous for his time playing for the Padres. Always an Ace in waiting, he battled injuries to the tune of a 3.88 career ERA. He was once traded for Anthony Rizzo, in a deal that definitely helped bring the championship to the North Side. The internet doesn’t seem to know where Cashner is headed, but a match up in Pittsburgh seems to make sense as the Pirates have a thing for talented starting pitchers projects.
-Sean Morash
