Where The Internet Thinks The MLB Free Agents Will Sign (1-15)
Last week, Off The Bench opened up our MLB Free Agent Predictor contest to the public. Max and I had a great time guessing where last year’s stars would end up, so we imagined that other baseball nerds would have a similarly good time. We offered up a $20 reward to whoever turns out to be the most accurate prognosticator and we circulated our little form around. After the first day, we had 27 people signed up. I never even expected that many. Truthfully, I figured we would get about 5 of our friends to join us and prepared the infrastructure to support the competition as such. I realized that I hadn’t even set a goal; so I set 50 as a good goal.
Well, we ended up with 109 responses!
My poor coding ability was no match for the volume of responses we received. Take a look at the Top 30 Free Agent Standings page and you’ll see just how I did not properly prepare for this many interested parties. That thing is clunky.
The good part about getting 109 responses is that now we have data! Annually, Fangraphs does a contract crowdsourcing to try to use the power of the internet to determine where, for how long, and for how much free agents will sign. We have done the same thing, but we’ve given people a carrot to dream for: $20 and the sweet pleasure of victory.
Rather than hoard all of that data and build a shrine to the fact that I got 109 people on the internet to do something, I opted to share it here with a little note about each player. This is the top half. The bottom half of the top 30 rankings ran here.
1. Yoenis Cespedes (31)
Cespedes is the definitely the biggest domino to fall this off season, as we wrote about last week, but the internet isn’t sure where he’ll land. Certainly the Mets have a need, a familiarity with the player, and the desire to reunite, but do they have the money? The Giants have the need too but gave out a couple of really big contracts last winter; will they be able to pony up the $100 million that Cespedes is looking for? As for the Yankees, there have been rumblings about that being a good fit, but New York has bent over backwards recently to get younger and less expensive so to me it doesn’t seem that giving a big contract to an aging slugger makes much sense. Similarly, the Dodgers have too many outfielders already under contractt. Cespedes might end up there but I’d be surprised. As for cost, there’s clearly a wide range of guesses, but I think the person who thought Yoenis would get more than $200 million for 5 years and would get less than $50 million for 7 both seem likely to be off base.
2. Aroldis Chapman (29)
Back to the Cubs? Back to the Yankees? Someplace else? The internet seems to have actually reached a semblance of agreement on this one. Chapman is arguably baseball’s premiere closer and was stellar in the playoffs for the Cubs but they rode him awful hard and it seemed like they planned on him pitching elsewhere next year. Since the Yankees have already reportedly expressed interest, I have a feeling 38.7% of our respondents might be right. As for the details, looks like a 4 year deal between $40 and $90 million seems like the most widely expected. That’s a lot of money.
3. Rich Hill (37)
With Stephen Strasburg staying put in DC, Hill is the best starter available this winter. Hill is great when healthy but he’s often not healthy and at 37, the internet has a point about him getting a 3 year deal for a pretty high AAV. A plurality thinks a reunion with the Dodgers is most likely but Baltimore is an interesting possibility, too. The Yankees have been popular so far.
4. Justin Turner (32)
Overwhelming support for Turner to return to Chavez Ravine. That makes sense as he’s beloved in LA and has come into his own as a player there. LA also doesn’t have any better options at 3rd at the moment. If some team desperate for production swoops in with a longer terms deal, Turner could bolt. The Mets seem unlikely, though.
5. Edwin Encarnacion (34)
It’s really interesting that so many of our internet prognosticators think Encarnacion will end up on the same team, but that team isn’t where he spent last season. A four or five year deal feels like a long one, but that will likely be what the market will bear. Houston is an interesting option, though that would be out of leftfield, so to speak. Toronto and Boston are definitely the odds-on favorites.
6. Jose Bautista (36)
Unlike Encarnacion, the internet seems to be pretty confident that Joey Bats is going back to Toronto. That certainly makes a lot of sense, especially now that he’s got draft pick compensation tied around his neck. Consensus seems to be about 3 years for about $20 million a season, a nice pay day if you can get it.
7. Carlos Santana (31)
Santana’s option was picked up by Cleveland. He’ll join the Indians as they try to defend their AL title next year.
8. Dexter Fowler (31)
So it looks like nobody knows where Fowler is going. Guesses were all over the board in both the AL and the NL. Now that Dexter has his World Series ring, he’ll probably be chasing the biggest possible payday, no matter where that takes him. A four year deal for the 31 year old is probably 1 year too many, but that’s what the internet thinks.
9. Mike Napoli (35)
Everybody thinks Mike Napoli is going back to Cleveland. It’s tough to tell if that’s because he’s a good fit there or because everyone is lazy. Judging by the fact that Texas, Napoli’s previous stop, is the next highest guessed locale, I’m thinking lazy.
10. Kenley Jansen (29)
The internet thinks Kenley Jansen is getting about 4 years for slightly less than $20 million per yer. If that’s the case, the Dodgers might be one of the only teams that can afford him. He’d certainly be a nice acquisition for the Giants as he would give them the closer they need at the expense of their biggest rival.
11. Carlos Beltran (39)
I’m glad to see all the top guesses for Beltran are in the AL, considering he’s a full time DH at this point. A return to Texas seems pretty likely but he certainly makes sense in Boston or Toronto as a replacement for David Ortiz and Baustista/ Encarnacion. Good guesses, internet.
12. Kendrys Morales (34)
Kendry Morales is off the board! 3 years, $33 million with the Blue Jays. I think the internet gets to count this as a win.
13. Ian Desmond (31)
Ian Desmond is definitely going to be looking for a big contract after last winter’s debacle. A return to Texas, where things went pretty well sounds like a good idea. I do like him in San Fran though. I’m sure Ian would be thrilled with a 4,5,or 6 year deal. We’ll see if he can get it.
14. Matt Wieters (31)
So no one knows where Weiters is going. Atlanta certainly makes sense, as does a return to Baltimore. Weiters might not be very good but he’s surely the best available healthy catcher and that will make him some serious money.
15. Mark Melancon (32)
Melancon is a really good under-the-radar closer. A lot of teams need one of those and it seems likely that someone will overpay after losing out on Chapma/Jansen. Being the third best closer in a free agent class is usually not a great thing, but Melancon has the track record to justify whatever his demands might be. ?
-Sean Morash and Max Frankel
